Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Chapter 3: Solar electricity
Various studies give STE/CSP a prominent role in electricity generation. In the Advanced
Scenario of CSP Global Outlook 2009, the IEA SolarPACES programme, the European Solar
Thermal Electricity Association and Greenpeace estimated global CSP capacity by 2050 at
1 500 GW, with a yearly output of 7 800 TWh, or 21% of the estimated electricity
consumption in ETP2010 BLUE Hi-Ren Scenario. In regions with favourable solar resource,
the proportion would be much larger. For example, the German Aerospace Center (DLR), in
a detailed study of the renewable energy potential of the MENA region plus South European
countries, estimated that CSP plants could provide half the electricity consumption around
the Mediterranean Sea by 2050 (Figure 3.11).
According to a recent study by PriceWaterHouse Coopers, Europe and North Africa together
could by 2050 produce all their electricity from renewables if their respective grids are
sufficiently interconnected. While North Africa would consume one-quarter of the total it
would produce 40% of it, mostly from onshore wind and solar power. CSP plants would form
the core of the export capacities from North Africa to Europe.
Figure 3.11 Electricity generation from 2000 to 2050 and mix in 2050 in all MENA
and South-European countries
Wind
4 500
Electricity production (TWh/a)
Photovoltaics
4 000
Geothermal
3 500
Biomass
3 000
CSP Plants
2 500
Wave / Tidal
Hydropower
Oil / Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Source: DLR, 2005.
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
Key point
Figure 3.11
CSP can provide the bulk of the electricity in countries with good DNI.
The EU-MENA connection
The transfer of large amounts of solar energy from desert areas to population centres
was advanced by the Algerian government when the country entered the IEA SolarPACES
programme. This idea, further advocated by the DESERTEC Foundation, has inspired
two major initiatives in Europe: the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) and the DESERTEC
Industrial Initiative (DII). The MSP aims to bring 20 GW of renewable electricity to
European Union countries by 2020 from developing economies that participate. DII
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