Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Chapter 11: Testing the limits
Chapter 11
Testing the limits
Solar energy technologies for electricity, heat and fuels have the potential to make solar
energy the primary source of electricity, and an important contributor to our energy and
transport needs. Solar energy could become the backbone of a largely renewable energy
system worldwide in 50 years from now.
Rationale and caveat
This chapter explores whether and, if so, how the role of solar energy technologies can be
much more important than envisioned in Chapters 3 to 5, which took into account data and
factors consistent with our Technology Roadmaps and IEA modelling exercises. The purpose
is to assess how far – and how fast – an integrated approach, building on synergies among
various solar energy technologies, and among solar and other renewable and energy efficient
technologies, could go.
Renewables in general, and solar energy in particular, may not always offer the lowest cost
options to meet our energy needs, nor even the cheapest way of doing so while reducing
global carbon emissions. But it is in the interest of policy makers and all stakeholders
(including the general public) to understand what is possible and roughly affordable under
three hypothetical conditions: if policy makers were to decide to reduce our reliance on fossil
fuels, whether for security, economic or environmental reasons, more sharply than even in
the IEA’s most climate-friendly scenarios; or if many countries decided to abandon nuclear
power; or if carbon capture and storage was found to be costlier, more limited or not as safe
as hoped.
A portfolio approach is needed to decarbonise energy systems, and there are many
uncertainties about all the conceivable options. For example, the UK Committee on Climate
Change (2011) observes: “CCS technology is promising but highly uncertain, and will remain
so until this technology is demonstrated at scale later in the decade. In the longer term,
storage capacity may be a constraint.” Furthermore, it notes that in the UK after Fukushima,
“a full review is required to ensure that any safety lessons are learnt and to restore public
confidence in the safety of nuclear power. Should the review suggest limiting the role of
nuclear generation in the UK in future, then a higher renewables contribution would be
required. Alternatively if the review leads to a significant tightening of safety regulations,
nuclear costs may be increased, which would improve the relative economics of renewable
technologies and argue for potentially increasing their role.”
In sum, the risk that other options may fall short should motivate policy makers to consider
possibilities for markedly higher penetration levels of renewables. These technologies utilise
indigenous, inexhaustible resources and are by their very nature more secure than
competitors. They are also less likely to experience price volatility, once the technologies are
mature, are environmentally sustainable and the cheapest known antidote to catastrophic
climate change, even if they are or appear to be higher-cost options in other ways.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011