Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Solar Energy Perspectives: Solar electricity
coincides with maximum or even significant sunshine. While oil-rich developing countries
in hot regions have developed air-conditioning systems that drive demand, other sunny
developing countries (for example, Morocco, Algeria, Libya or India) have not. Their demand
peaks after sunset, driven by lighting. Even in industrial regions such as California, the
thermal inertia of buildings perpetuates the demand for air-conditioning several hours after
sunset, while demand for light adds to the peak, or at least mid-peak conditions.
Figure 3.13 Oil power plants in operation and solar resource
120 Power of plants (GW) Number of plants
4 000
100
3 500
3 000
80
2 500
60
2 000
40
1 500
1 000
20
500
0
0
800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000 2 200 2 400 2 600 2 800
Note: Solar location of oil power plants as of end 2010. Power plants are geo-referenced and sorted by solar irradiance of fixed
optimally tilted PV modules. Total oil power plants are 560 GW, of which about 150 GW is located in very sunny regions of more
than 2 000 kWh/m²/y of solar irradiance.
Source: Breyer et al., 2011.
Irradiation for fixed optimally tilted (kWh/m 2 /y)
Figure 3.13
Key point
Solar electricity in sunny countries will soon compete with oil-generated electricity.
Looking at the economics of electricity generation in oil-exporting countries and considering
only extraction, refining and transportation, fuel oil can cost as little as USD 4.00 per barrel.
Solar electricity cannot compete with this and may not for some time. However, considering
the opportunity costs, i.e. the forgone revenues in consuming oil locally rather than exporting
it, things change dramatically and those countries’ costs are comparable with oil-importing
countries. Oil prices have been on average over USD 100 in 2010. At USD 80 per barrel, PV
electricity from utility-scale plants, if they are built for the same cost as in Germany, with
Middle East solar resource, and solar thermal electricity (STE) from CSP plants are competitive
with oil-based electricity generation.
Off grid
Cumulative off-grid PV electricity systems may represent about 3.5 GW of installed capacities
today, mostly in industrialised countries, mostly for telecommunication relays and remote houses
or shelters. Rural electrification is expected to represent the bulk of the installed capacities in
many developing countries, but available information is scarce. At the end of 2009 capacities
were estimated at 22 MW for Bangladesh, 10 MW for Indonesia, 7 MW (each) for Ethiopia,
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© OECD/IEA, 2011