Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Solar Energy Perspectives: Solar photovoltaics
This has not yet been observed in the PV industry, and according to IEA analysis below, is
unlikely to occur before 2050 for residential systems and before 2030 for commercial and
utility-scale systems. Target costs for 2050 for those systems and the electricity they deliver
(in italics in the relevant tables) are therefore more uncertain.
Table 6.1 Cost targets for the residential sector
2010 2020 2030 2050
Typical turnkey system price (2010 USD/kW) 3800 1960 1405 1040
Typical electricity
generation costs
(2010 USD/MWH)*
2000 kWh/kW 228 116 79 56
1500 kWh/kW 304 155 106 75
1000 kWh/kW 456 232 159 112
Table 6.2 Cost targets for the commercial sector
2010 2020 2030 2050
Typical turnkey system price (2010 USD/kW) 3400 1850 1325 980
Typical electricity
generation costs
(2010 USD/MWH)*
2000 kWh/kW 204 107 75 54
1500 kWh/kW 272 143 100 72
1000 kWh/kW 408 214 150 108
Table 6.3 Cost targets for the utility sector
2010 2020 2030 2050
Typical turnkey system price (2010 USD/kW) 3120 1390 1100 850
Typical electricity
generation costs
(2010 USD/MWH)*
2000 kWh/kW 187 81 62 48
1500 kWh/kW 249 108 83 64
1000 kWh/kW 374 162 125 96
Notes: Based on the following assumptions: interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25 years (2008), 30 years (2020), 35 years (2030)
and 40 years (2050). Numbers in italics are considered more speculative.
Sources: IEA 2010c, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and IEA data and analysis.
Assumptions relative to the next ten years are more robust and based on detailed assessment
of the various cost factors of PV systems. The price of silicon PV modules is expected to come
down to one-third of its current level, and also one-third of future total system prices, against
more than half at present (Figure 6.6).
Floor price and roof costs
Silicon is the second most widespread element on earth, available in sand and quartz rocks.
The energy pay-back time of silicon PV cells (i.e. the time its electricity production takes to
“repay” the energy associated with its fabrication) is currently between 1 and 1.5 years in
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© OECD/IEA, 2011