Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Solar Energy Perspectives: Testing the limits
The world in 50 years
The “big picture” considered in this chapter could be reality some 50 years or more from
now. This future world has about 9 billion inhabitants, versus 7 billion today. Two billion live
in cold or temperate countries or regions, seven billion live in hot and sunny countries. The
world gross product increases fourfold but energy intensity has been considerably reduced,
so the final energy demand is only 40% higher than in 2009. At 12 000 Mtoe or about
140 000 TWh, this final energy demand is foreseen as early as 2035 under current policies
(WEO 2010). These figures are consistent with the assumption of the BLUE Map Scenario of
ETP 2010 for 2050 (Figure 11.1).
Figure 11.1 Final energy use by sector in 2007, 2030 and 2050
Other
Buildings
Transport
Industry
16 000 Mtoe
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
2007 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
Note: 10 000 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) are equal to 116 000 TWh, or 0.418 Ej.
Source: IEA, 2010a.
Key point
Efficiency improvements can limit the growth of energy demand.
Energy efficiency improvements will result from technical progress and sound policies. A key
driver of this reduced energy intensity will be the refurbishment of most current buildings,
reducing the demand for space heating in OECD countries, economies in transition and
China. Substitution of fossil fuels by electricity with heat pumps in commercial and residential
sectors will also play a key role, as will electric traction in transportation. In industry, heat
pumps and other efficient electric processes will also substitute for large amounts of fossil
fuels, supported by an evolution of industry activities towards greater recycling. Heat pumps
reduce energy consumption by a factor of four. Most population growth and construction of
new buildings for all purposes will take place in sunny and warm countries, with cooling
loads rather than heating needs. In the transport sector, electrification will reduce the
effective energy demand, as one kWh of electricity in electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids
replaces about 3 kWh of liquid fuels.
Each additional electric kWh increases the share of electricity in the final energy demand by,
acting on both numerator and denominator. Hence the assumption relative to the limited
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© OECD/IEA, 2011