Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Solar Energy Perspectives: Solar electricity
the various resources and the mix of solar electricity technology in line with the ratio of
diffuse to direct irradiance (Figure 3.4).
Figure 3.4 Renewables in electricity generation by 2050 in the Blue Map Scenario
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Geothermal
Ocean
Hydro
Biomass
and waste
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
PWh
55%
45%
81%
49%
87%
34%
0.0
OECD
Europe
United
States
Africa
Middle
East
Latin
America
China
Source: IEA, 2010a.
Key point
Available resources determine the mix of renewables in electricity generation.
More significantly perhaps, ETP 2010 offers a BLUE Hi-Ren Scenario, where renewables
are pushed up to 75% of global electricity generation. Such a scenario shows how
renewables could replace other climate-change mitigation options that fail to deliver
entirely on their promises – whether it be energy efficiency, CCS or nuclear power. In
such a scenario, solar electricity will be, by 2050, the largest of all sources of electricity
generation, accounting for almost 25% of the total. CSP and PV technologies contribute
similar proportions to solar generation. Wind has the next largest share, followed by
hydro.
Consistent with the BLUE Hi-Ren Scenario, the IEA Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy
foresees PV producing about 11% of global electricity by 2050, including all scales and types
of PV deployment (IEA, 2010c). The total PV capacity by 2050 would be 3 155 GW, of which
44% would be residential, 13% commercial (i.e. on large commercial buildings), 29% utility
scale, and 14% off grid. As the latter two sectors are likely to be installed in sunnier places,
they would total 48% of the global 4 572 TWh of PV-produced electricity, the residential
sector providing only 39% of the total.
Solar energy, like wind power, varies by day, season, and year. Variable renewable generation
(i.e. PV and wind power) would by 2050 provide between 18% and 31% of global electricity
generation in the climate-friendly scenarios BLUE Map and High Ren of ETP 2010
(see Figure 3.5).
50
© OECD/IEA, 2011