Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Chapter 11: Testing the limits
10 000 TWh th of a mix of coal and gas in industry – in total, slightly less than 3 Gt CO 2
3
assuming that base load plants (geothermal, nuclear, solid biomass and fossil fuels with CCS)
are carbon neutral.
Figure 11.9 Total final energy by sources, 2060
Oil 5%
Gas and coal 8%
PV 13%
Baseload 7%
CSP 18%
Biofuels 13%
Biomass heat 6%
Geothermal heat 1%
Hydropower 6%
Solar fuels 1%
Solar heat 4%
Wind 18%
Key point
Solar energy could contribute more than a third of total energy needs.
If available, CCS could, however, capture a significant share of these industrial emissions and
also capture some of the CO 2 emissions from biomass in industry.
This is only one conceivable combination among others. With respect to the mix of
renewables, enhanced geothermal energy may take off after 2020. The hydropower resource
may prove different than roughly estimated here, and marine energy may also take off on
a much larger scale. Alternatively, lower availability of biomass and hydropower may require
even greater investment in wind power and solar power, as well as in electricity storage
capacities. Solar fuels may provide more options for heat and transport and not be limited to
electricity generation.
Other variants could reduce or increase the need for wind and solar electricity, and associated
large-scale electricity storage. Assuming a base load generating capacity of 1 200 GW
including nuclear, 100 GW geothermal and some solid-biomass electric plants suggests
a role for nuclear somewhere between the Baseline Scenario (capacity 610 GW by 2050,
generation 4 825 TWh) and the BLUE Map Scenario (capacity 1 200 GW by 2050, generation
9 608 TWh).
3. Assuming 40% efficiency in the electricity generation by combustion of natural gas and an average emission factor of 270 gCO 2
per kWh for fossil fuels.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011