Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Chapter 6: Solar photovoltaics
southern Europe, despite the high energy cost of semiconductor-grade silicon (1 GJ/kg).
Automated recycling is already an industrial reality: 95% of the modules, but only about 72%
of the silicon, can be recycled. Some manufacturers already provide Si-PV systems with no
silver contacts, thereby avoiding possible cost issues should a rapidly-expanding PV industry
become a price maker for silver.
Figure 6.6 Utility-scale PV price forecast
Other
Engineering,
procurement
and construction
Balance
of plant
Inverter
Module
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
USD/W
3.12
0.18 USD/W
0.41 2.74
USD/W
0.18 2.49 USD/W
0.50 0.41 0.17 2.31 USD/W
0.39 0.17 2.10 USD/W
0.50
0.38
1.96 USD/W
0.16
1.82
USD/W
0.30
0.47
0.36 0.16
1.70 USD/W
1.59
USD/W
1.49
USD/W
1.72
0.46
0.35 0.15
0.30
0.44
0.33
0.15
0.32 0.15
1.39
0.27
0.31
0.14
0.14
1.35
0.25
1.18
0.42
0.40
0.30
0.39
0.28
0.23
1.06
0.37
0.21
0.36
0.91
0.19
0.35
0.82
0.18
0.74
0.16
0.67
0.15
0.60
0.14
0.54 0.49
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Note: Module price derives from experience curve + margin; system price in markets with cost-based, rather than value-based pricing
(such as Germany).
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Figure 6.6
Key point
Module costs will soon represent only one-third of utility-scale PV systems.
If silicon is unlimited, some elements of non-silicon thin films are not. CdTe thin films need
cadmium, a by-product of zinc mining, and tellurium, a by-product of copper processing.
The latter’s availability in the long term may depend on whether the copper industry can
optimise extraction, refining and recycling yields. CIS and CIGS thin films need selenium,
gallium and indium. The latter is found in tin and tungsten ores, but its extraction could drive
the prices higher.
Overall, the target costs up to 2030 noted above appear in line with both historical experience
and detailed consideration of future improvements. Beyond 2030, the learning curve may
either slowly flatten out and reach what has been termed a PV “floor price”, or experience
new downward shifts as novel devices kick in. In both cases the USD 1/W p mark for full PV
systems will likely be hit and overcome, while some experts see the USD 0.50/W p mark
being ultimately achievable.
Building-integrated PV offers the possibility that a thin layer of PV-active material will
become almost a standard feature of building elements such as roof tiles, façade materials,
glasses and windows, just as double-glazed windows have become standard in most
countries. With very large-scale mass production, and support elements having a primary
role in building support or closure, the cost of PV would almost vanish in the market segment
where it currently costs the most. PV roof costs may never meet a floor price.
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