Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Solar Energy Perspectives: Industry and transport
Figure 5.8 Evolution of energy use by fuel type in transport worldwide
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricity
CNG and LPG
GTL and CTL
Heavy fuel oil
Jet fuel
Diesel
Gasoline
Mtoe
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
Baseline
Baseline
BLUE Map
2007 2030 2050
Source: IEA, 2010a.
Key point
Fossil fuel use in transport could be cut by half compared to Baseline in 2050.
Most vehicles’ high intensity of energy consumption will prevent solar energy from making
a large contribution. However, vehicles could be seen as remote sites, disconnected from the
grid on the go and in other situations, which are electrified with a relatively inefficient
generation system using a fuel that is, at least in several countries, heavily taxed, so integrated
PV systems might make a useful contribution.
Road transport represents by far the largest share of energy consumption in transport. The
extent to which road transport systems can be electrified is an important question. With rapid
battery exchanges, one may suppose that at some point in the future most cars would be EVs
or PHEVs. PHEVs can run on electricity mode for daily commuting, while permitting use of
liquid fuels for longer trips. Evens EVs could travel long distances if a rapid effective batteryexchange
service is developed, which could resemble the way tired stage horses were
exchanged for fresh ones in the past. Issues relating to the ownership or age of batteries could
presumably be solved in a world of electronic transactions, as they were solved in the Middle
Ages with less sophisticated communications. For example, in Israel the “Better Place”
project plans to lease batteries rather than sell them and charge customers by the distance
travelled rather than by the amount of electricity consumed.
Trucking is often considered impossible to electrify – except for the consumption of amenities
(e.g. cooling) when idling. Hybridisation of the trucking fleet, however, could offer additional
options.
On short trips, hybridisation would improve efficiency significantly, as loads and speeds often
vary. On long trips, of 800-kilometre distance and above, mode switching could be
encouraged – including transporting containers on specific trains on new dedicated railways.
For middle distances, trucks could be fed with electricity through induction or from overhead
wires through trolley poles while on the road – specifically, on highways. In Europe, almost
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© OECD/IEA, 2011