Solar Energy Perspectives - IEA

Solar Energy Perspectives: Testing the limits
solid biomass, fossil-fuel with CCS, geothermal and nuclear plants (Table 11.1 and
Figure 11.4).
Considering a global electricity generation of 90 000 TWh, slightly less than half could be
variable, with an indicative share of 25 000 TWh of wind power (from a global capacity of
10 000 GW), and 18 000 TWh of solar PV from 12 000 GW capacity, plus some tidal power.
If there were significant interconnection capacities over vast landmass areas, one can assume
a capacity credit 1 of 20% (i.e. 2 000 GW) for wind power in winter, 10% (i.e. 1 000 GW) in
summer.
Table 11.1 Indicative global capacities and electricity generation
Technology Capacity (GW) Electricity generation
(TWh/y)
PV 12 000 18 000
CSP *6 000 25 000
Solar fuels **3 000 2 000
Wind power 10 000 25 000
Hydro power and marine 1 600 9 000
Base load (Geothermal, nuclear,
solid biomass w. CCS)
1 200 10 000
Natural gas **3 000 1 000
Total 90 000
* Thermal storage would give CSP plants an average capacity factor of almost 50%. **Shared capacities.
Figure 11.4 Global electricity generation by technology in 2060
Base load 11%
Hydropower 10%
Natural gas 1%
PV 20%
Wind power 28%
CSP 28%
Solar fuels 2%
Key point
Figure 11.3
Solar energy could provide half the global electricity generation in 50 years.
1. The capacity credit of renewables, also called capacity value, is the proportion of the rated capacity of installed solar or other
renewable plants that can be considered dispatchable. It thus expresses the capacity of conventional power plants that can be
displaced by a variable source with the same degree of system security.
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