OECD Culture and Local Development.pdf - PACA

ANNEX 1
This distinction between short-term and long-term multipliers is important, for
it leads to divergent values. For the following scale of values: F = 0,5, c = 0,9, m = 0,7,
t i = 0,16, t d = 0, 20 and b = 0,2, the short-term multiplier will be 1.25, while the longterm
multiplier will be 0.40.
These multipliers are generally estimated at the national level. There are many
illustrations for the area of tourism receipts, although not for “cultural tourism”. Table
1 provides a few examples. It shows that this multiplier varies inversely with the
degree of territorial integration. Thus it is much higher for the United Kingdom than
it is for Egypt or Mauritius, where tourism goods are typically imported.
Table 1. Value of tourism multipliers at the national level
United Kingdom 1.73
Republic of Ireland 1.71
Egypt 1.23
Cyprus 1.14
Mauritius 0.97
Source: Cooper, CH. & al. (1998), Tourism: Principles and Practice, Longman, pp. 142-143
At the local level, estimating these multipliers is a complicated affair, subject to
several difficulties. The current benchmark study is still the one done some time ago
by John Myerscough 122 . Analysing several local territories in the United Kingdom, he
cross-referenced three sources: reports from artistic activity surveys, reports from tourism
surveys, and consumption studies. He established an average value for the multiplier
of around 1.4, a value that has since been used as the benchmark for most studies.
But this value changed with:
• The territory’s population density: the higher the density, the higher the
multiplier, explained by the fact that the demand for services can be more readily
satisfied by local supply.
• Territorial size: the larger the territory, the higher the multiplier, because leaks
become relatively less important.
Table 2. Value of tourism multipliers at the local level
MUSEUM
THEATRE
High population density 1.42 1.40
Medium population density 1.28 1.26
Low population density 1.26 1.23
Source: Based on Myerscough, J. (1988), The Economic Importance of Arts in Britain, London: Policies Study Institute,
p. 88 ff.
178 CULTURE AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT - ISBN 92-64-00990-6 - © OECD 2005