Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

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x 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A. B. D. Exponential Economic Population Space Units Thermal <strong>Energy</strong> Use Fossil Fuels Climate Renewables Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Nuclear Misc. Matrix <strong>Human</strong>ity Plan? Strategies Epilogue Math Chemistry Tangents Lightning Skim Core Message Less Mathy Quarter Class Semester Class Non-Physics Class sections completely, but the guide can help find the less numerically intense sections. Finally, different class formats might take various routes through the material, as suggested above. Acknowledgments I thank Brian Siana, David Crossley, <strong>and</strong> Barath Raghavan for extensive review <strong>and</strong> substantive suggestions on elements of the text. Allegra Swift offered tremendous help on permissions <strong>and</strong> open access publishing. The first draft of this book was written in late 2019 <strong>and</strong> early 2020 for use in the Physics 12 general-education course on <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Environment at UC San Diego in Winter quarter 2020. Students were presented with one chapter at a time in PDF form, lacking margin notes, having fewer figures <strong>and</strong> tables, <strong>and</strong> containing untested content. As part of weekly assignments, students were to read each chapter <strong>and</strong> offer substantive feedback on: confusing elements; missing content that would be interesting to include; ideas for additional graphics or tables; anything that seemed wrong or of questionable veracity; a critique of problems (for clarity, value, level of difficulty); <strong>and</strong> any typographical errors or wording suggestions. The voluminous feedback that resulted has been extremely valuable in shaping the current iteration of the book, so that each student in the class deserves acknowledgment here for hard work <strong>and</strong> keen insights. In alphabetical order: J. Abaya, B. Arce, M. Beltran, D. Bothe, P. Buljat, T. Chung, J. Cordero, B. Espinoza Diaz, G. Fu, J. Funes, C. Goodale, T. Huang, K. Ito, A. Jhaveri, D. Kim, S. Mahlman, J. Mckinley, J. Murgo, H. Musa, J. Nam, J. Ngo, K. Nguyen, H. Ordonez, G. Osuna, C. Peach, H. Potts, P. Puno, E. Ramos, J. Song, A. Strube, D. Sun, N. Teuton, E. Tian, Q. C. Tu, Z. Tuazon, J. Wen, Z. Xu, A. Yoshinaga, S. Zweifler. © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.; Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.
xi Contents Preface: Before Taking the Plunge How to Use This Book Contents v viii xi I Setting the Stage: Growth <strong>and</strong> Limitations 1 1 Exponential Growth 2 1.1 Bacteria in a Jar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.1.1 Exponential Math . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.2 <strong>Energy</strong> Extrapolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.3 Thermodynamic Absurdity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.4 Upshot: Limits to Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.5 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2 Economic Growth Limits 17 2.1 Historical Coupling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.2 Decoupling <strong>and</strong> Substitution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.3 Forced Economic Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.4 No-Growth World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.5 Upshot: Growth Will End . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.6 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3 Population 30 3.1 Population History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.2 Logistic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.2.1 Overshoot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3.2.2 Logistic Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 3.3 Demographic Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 3.3.1 Geographic Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.3.2 Transition Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3.4 Touchy Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3.4.1 It’s Personal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3.4.2 Population Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.5 Upshot: It Depends on Us . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3.6 Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 4 Space Colonization 54 4.1 Scale of Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4.2 The Wrong Narrative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 4.3 A Host of Difficulties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.4 Exploration’s Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 4.5 Upshot: Earth First . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.; Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.
Page 2 and 3: UC San Diego Energy</strong
Page 4 and 5: Copyright: © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr
Page 7 and 8: v Preface: Before Taking the Plunge
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Page 11: facilitating a quick return to the
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Page 38 and 39: 2 Economic Growth Limits 18 But res
Page 40 and 41: 2 Economic Growth Limits 20 perhaps
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3 Population 42 Figure 3.14: Absolu
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3 Population 44 Country Population
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3 Population 46 continue until all
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3 Population 48 began to climb, lea
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3 Population 50 think that is (hint
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3 Population 52 22. The set of diag
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54 4 Space Exploration vs. Coloniza
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4 Space Colonization 56 Body Symbol
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4 Space Colonization 58 scale of th
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4 Space Colonization 60 4.3 A Host
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4 Space Colonization 62 Hum
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4 Space Colonization 64 4.5 Upshot:
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4 Space Colonization 66 Americans g
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Summary of Current Charges (See pag
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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84 6 Putting Thermal Energy
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6 Putting Thermal Energy</s
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102 7 The Energy L
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7 The Energy L<str
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7 The Energy L<str
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7 The Energy L<str
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7 The Energy L<str
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114 8 Fossil Fuels We are now ready
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8 Fossil Fuels 116 ultimately consi
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8 Fossil Fuels 118 16 14 12 gas 2 T
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8 Fossil Fuels 120 barrel of crude
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8 Fossil Fuels 122 Note that fossil
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8 Fossil Fuels 124 problem of uncer
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8 Fossil Fuels 126 4. Increased dif
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8 Fossil Fuels 128 rate at which it
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8 Fossil Fuels 130 The U.S. experie
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8 Fossil Fuels 132 Box 8.3: Resourc
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8 Fossil Fuels 134 scarcity <strong
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8 Fossil Fuels 136 occupies 7.4 mL
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138 9 Climate Change Climate change
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9 Climate Change 140 When the measu
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9 Climate Change 142 80 CO2 ppmV an
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9 Climate Change 144 (p. 10) that t
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9 Climate Change 146 change, but a
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9 Climate Change 148 9.3 Possible T
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9 Climate Change 150 140 CO2 ppmV a
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9 Climate Change 152 directly escap
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9 Climate Change 154 component math
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9 Climate Change 156 1880, sea leve
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9 Climate Change 158 The last chapt
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9 Climate Change 160 skeptic” who
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9 Climate Change 162 forcing is 3
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164 10 Renewable Overview We now un
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10 Renewable Overview 166 The sun w
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10 Renewable Overview 168 Treating
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10 Renewable Overview 170 Source qB
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10 Renewable Overview 172 sun overh
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11 Hydroelectric Energy</st
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184 12 Wind Energy
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12 Wind Energy 186
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12 Wind Energy 188
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12 Wind Energy 190
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12 Wind Energy 192
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12 Wind Energy 194
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12 Wind Energy 196
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13 Solar Energy 19
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 22
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13 Solar Energy 22
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14 Biological Energy</stron
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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16 Small Players 276 0.1 W/m 2 , ma
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16 Small Players 278 heat to diffus
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16 Small Players 280 not expect geo
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16 Small Players 282 almost 200 tim
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16 Small Players 284 It’s not an
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16 Small Players 286 16.5 Hydrogen
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16 Small Players 288 5. What are yo
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 290 v
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 292 p
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 294 <
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 296 T
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 298 I
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 300 T
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 302 5
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304 18 Human Facto
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18 Human Factors 3
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18 Human Factors 3
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18 Human Factors 3
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18 Human Factors 3
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18 Human Factors 3
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316 19 A Plan Might Be Welcome Havi
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 318 ther
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 320 Box
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 322 econ
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 324 In e
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 326 19.4
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328 20 Adaptation Strategies We mad
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20 Adaptation Strategies 330 debate
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20 Adaptation Strategies 332 the en
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20 Adaptation Strategies 334 20.3.2
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20 Adaptation Strategies 336 Exampl
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20 Adaptation Strategies 338 Exampl
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20 Adaptation Strategies 340 Defini
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20 Adaptation Strategies 342 Since
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20 Adaptation Strategies 344 2. kee
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20 Adaptation Strategies 346 Try mo
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20 Adaptation Strategies 348 a) lap
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350 Epilogue This book may be distr
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Epilogue 352 ◮ Fossil fuels are a
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354 Image Attributions 1. Cover Pho
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356 Changes and Co
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Part V Appendices
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A.1 Relax on the Decimals 360 What
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A.3 Areas and Volu
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A.4 Fractions 364 Figure A.1: Paral
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A.6 Fractional Powers 366 writing t
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A.8 Equation Hunting 368 to perform
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A.10 Units Manipulation 370 Looks l
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A.10 Units Manipulation 372 we soug
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A.11 Just the Start 374 useful foun
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B.2 Stoichiometry 376 other element
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B.2 Stoichiometry 378 + C + O 2 CO
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B.3 Chemical Energy</strong
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B.4 Ideal Gas Law 382 Example B.4.2
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C Selected Answers 384 10. May help
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C Selected Answers 386 19. Twice, t
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C Selected Answers 388 Chapter 11 1
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C Selected Answers 390 13. Box bare
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Alluring Tangents D This Appendix c
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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D.3 Electrified Transport 398 Box 1
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D.3 Electrified Transport 400 It is
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D.4 Pushing Out the Moon 402 D.3.6
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D.5 Humanity’s L
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D.5 Humanity’s L
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D.6 Too Smart to Succeed? 408 Can i
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D.6 Too Smart to Succeed? 410 as we
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412 Bibliography References are in
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414 [30] International Space Statio
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416 [63] NASA. The NASA Earth’s <
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418 [97] D A Pfeiffer. Eating Fossi
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420 Notation This list describes se
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422 Glossary AC alternating current
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424 thing as a kilocalorie. Note th
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426 demographic transition refers t
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428 EROEI Energy R
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430 specific heat capacity is 4,184
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432 kWh kilowatt-hour. 76, 159, 214
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434 parts per million by mass (ppm
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436 refinement is the process by wh
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438 triton is the nucleus of tritiu
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440 fossil fuel intensity, 138 hist
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442 heat pump, 99, 297 geothermal e
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444 capacity factor, 216, 217 cell
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Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

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