Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

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17 Comparison of Alternatives 292 point for each blue box, no points for yellow boxes, <strong>and</strong> deducting a point for each red box. Certainly this is an imperfect scoring scheme, 9 giving each criterion equal weight, but it provides some means of comparing <strong>and</strong> ranking sources. 9: See Section 17.3 for an alternate approach. Natural Gas Petroleum Coal abundance difficulty intermittency demonstrated electricity heat transport acceptance backyard? efficiency for now buses, trucks for heat via electric elec/transport for heat for now mis-spent elec/transport for now via electric for heat (<strong>and</strong> trains?) elec/transport Score 8 7.5 7.5 Figure 17.1: Fossil fuel matrix of attributes. Blue is good (+1 point); yellow is neutral (0 points). The conventional fossil fuels each score 7–8 out of 10 possible points by this scheme, displayed on the right side of Figure 17.1. Some attribute ratings are divided into heating versus electricity production for a few of the scoring categories. The overall impression conveyed by this graphic is that fossil fuels perform rather well in almost all criteria. Because fossil fuels collectively supply about 80% of global energy usage, they are each classified as having intermediate abundance. But even this is not a permanent condition—providing significant motivation for exploring alternatives in the first place. Getting energy out of fossil fuels is trivially easy. Being free of intermittency problems, fully demonstrated, <strong>and</strong> versatile enough to provide heat, electricity, <strong>and</strong> transportation fuel, fossil fuels have been embraced by society <strong>and</strong> are frequently used directly in homes. Efficiency for anything but direct heat is middling, typically registering 15–25% for automotive engines <strong>and</strong> 30–40% for power plants. The commonly discussed alternative energy approaches display a wider range of ratings. Immediately, some overall trends are clear in Figure 17.2. Very few options are both abundant <strong>and</strong> easy. Solar photovoltaic (PV) <strong>and</strong> solar thermal are the only exceptions. A similar exclusion principle often holds for abundant <strong>and</strong> demonstrated/available—again satisfied only by solar PV <strong>and</strong> solar thermal. This uncommon combination plays a large role in the popularity <strong>and</strong> promise of solar power. Intermittency mainly plagues solar <strong>and</strong> wind resources, although many natural sources (hydroelectric, tidal, wave, biofuels) present mild inconvenience due to intermittency. Electricity is easy to produce, resulting in many options. Since the easiest <strong>and</strong> cheapest will likely be picked first, the less convenient forms of electricity production are less likely to be exploited. 10 Transportation needs are hard to satisfy. Together with the fact that oil production will peak before natural gas or coal, transportation may appear as the foremost problem to address. Electric cars are an obvious— albeit expensive—solution. Besides being unclear how we might all 10: Because the list is ranked by overall score, those near the bottom are disfavored as sources of electricity, likely correlating with economic advantage. 11: Battery cost remains high: about $10,000 afford 11 electric cars, the technology has a number of drawbacks relative per 100 miles (160 km) of range. © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.; Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.
17 Comparison of Alternatives 293 Solar PV abundance difficulty intermittency demonstrated electricity heat transport acceptance backyard? efficiency via electric via electric Score 5 Solar Thermal some storage via electric 5 Solar Heating some storage 4 Hydroelectric seasonal flow via electric via electric not universal micro-hydro 4 Biofuel/Algae gunk/disease some R&D mis-spent small scale? 4 Geothermal/Electricity hotspots via electric 4 Wind Artificial Photosynth. via electric via electric noise, birds, eyesore catalysts active devel. mis-spent ? 3 3 Tidal daily/monthly variations via electric via electric 3 Conventional Fission high-tech via electric waste/fear 2 Uranium Breeder high-tech military via electric proliferation 2 Thorium Breeder high-tech via electric waste/fear 2 Geothermal/Depletion deep drill rarely? deep wells impractical 2 Geothermal/Heating deep drill rarely? deep wells impractical 1 Biofuel/Crops food cellulosic annual harvest seasonal ethanol, etc. R&D effort mis-spent food/l<strong>and</strong> competition small beans 1 OceanThermal access/ maintenance via electric via electric 1 Ocean Current access/ maintenance via electric via electric 1 Ocean Waves storms/lulls many one-off designs via electric via electric eyesore 1 D-T Fusion lithium future-tech via electric trit/neutron contamination 1 D-D Fusion farther future via electric 1 Figure 17.2: Alternative energy matrix of attributes. Blue is good (+1 point); yellow is neutral (0 points), <strong>and</strong> red is bad (−1 point). Only green-labeled entries contribute more than a few gigawatts to our energy today, out of the 18,000 GW total. This comparison is meant to help differentiate attractive directions for future energy implementation. to fossil fuels <strong>and</strong> does not lend itself to air travel or heavy shipping by l<strong>and</strong> or sea (see Sec. D.3; p. 397). A car filling its gasoline tank is transferring energy at an astounding rate of 15 MW, equivalent to 3,000 homes running air conditioning. Limited range <strong>and</strong> slow charge times 12 do not permit electric transport to simply replace transportation as we currently know it. Few of the options face serious barriers to acceptance, especially when energy scarcity is at stake. Some energy sources are available for individual implementation, allowing distributed power generation as opposed to centralized resources. For example, a passive solar home having PV panels, wind power, <strong>and</strong> some method to produce liquid fuels on-site would satisfy most domestic energy needs in a self-sufficient manner. 12: A 220 V 40-Amp circuit, which is on the high end of practicality for a residence, will charge a single car at a rate of about 20 miles of range per hour. Cost is not directly represented in the matrix, although the difficulty rating may serve as an imperfect proxy. In general, the alternative methods have difficulty competing against cheap fossil fuels. It is not yet clear whether the requisite prosperity needed to afford a more expensive energy future at today’s scale will be forthcoming, as prosperity historically has been closely tied to the availability of natural resources, © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.; Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.
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UC San Diego Energy</strong
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Copyright: © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr
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v Preface: Before Taking the Plunge
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vii to internalize (“own") the co
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facilitating a quick return to the
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xi Contents Preface: Before Taking
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8.4 Fossil Fuel Pros and</s
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15.4.8 Pros and Co
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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2 1 Exponential Growth Huma
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1 Exponential Growth 4 The populati
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1 Exponential Growth 6 case we get:
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1 Exponential Growth 8 10 13 <stron
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1 Exponential Growth 10 the impossi
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1 Exponential Growth 12 which we ca
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1 Exponential Growth 14 3. Our exam
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1 Exponential Growth 16 22. Adapt E
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2 Economic Growth Limits 18 But res
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2 Economic Growth Limits 20 perhaps
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2 Economic Growth Limits 22 theoret
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2 Economic Growth Limits 24 2.3 Phy
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2 Economic Growth Limits 26 who wan
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2 Economic Growth Limits 28 Just be
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30 3 Population Underlying virtuall
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3 Population 32 In more recent year
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3 Population 34 which is really jus
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3 Population 36 Definition 3.2.3 Ov
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3 Population 38 halfway to the limi
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3 Population 40 50 Niger Birth rate
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3 Population 42 Figure 3.14: Absolu
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3 Population 44 Country Population
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3 Population 46 continue until all
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3 Population 48 began to climb, lea
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3 Population 50 think that is (hint
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3 Population 52 22. The set of diag
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54 4 Space Exploration vs. Coloniza
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4 Space Colonization 56 Body Symbol
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4 Space Colonization 58 scale of th
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4 Space Colonization 60 4.3 A Host
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4 Space Colonization 62 Hum
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4 Space Colonization 64 4.5 Upshot:
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4 Space Colonization 66 Americans g
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Summary of Current Charges (See pag
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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5 Energy a
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84 6 Putting Thermal Energy
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6 Putting Thermal Energy</s
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102 7 The Energy L
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7 The Energy L<str
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7 The Energy L<str
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7 The Energy L<str
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7 The Energy L<str
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7 The Energy L<str
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114 8 Fossil Fuels We are now ready
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8 Fossil Fuels 116 ultimately consi
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8 Fossil Fuels 118 16 14 12 gas 2 T
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8 Fossil Fuels 120 barrel of crude
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8 Fossil Fuels 122 Note that fossil
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8 Fossil Fuels 124 problem of uncer
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8 Fossil Fuels 126 4. Increased dif
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8 Fossil Fuels 128 rate at which it
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8 Fossil Fuels 130 The U.S. experie
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8 Fossil Fuels 132 Box 8.3: Resourc
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8 Fossil Fuels 134 scarcity <strong
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8 Fossil Fuels 136 occupies 7.4 mL
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138 9 Climate Change Climate change
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9 Climate Change 140 When the measu
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9 Climate Change 142 80 CO2 ppmV an
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9 Climate Change 144 (p. 10) that t
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9 Climate Change 146 change, but a
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9 Climate Change 148 9.3 Possible T
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9 Climate Change 150 140 CO2 ppmV a
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9 Climate Change 152 directly escap
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9 Climate Change 154 component math
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9 Climate Change 156 1880, sea leve
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9 Climate Change 158 The last chapt
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9 Climate Change 160 skeptic” who
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9 Climate Change 162 forcing is 3
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164 10 Renewable Overview We now un
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10 Renewable Overview 166 The sun w
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10 Renewable Overview 168 Treating
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10 Renewable Overview 170 Source qB
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10 Renewable Overview 172 sun overh
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11 Hydroelectric Energy</st
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184 12 Wind Energy
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12 Wind Energy 186
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12 Wind Energy 188
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12 Wind Energy 190
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12 Wind Energy 192
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12 Wind Energy 194
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12 Wind Energy 196
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13 Solar Energy 19
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 20
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 21
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13 Solar Energy 22
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13 Solar Energy 22
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13 Solar Energy 22
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14 Biological Energy</stron
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15 Nuclear Energy
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Page 324 and 325: 304 18 Human Facto
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Page 356 and 357: 20 Adaptation Strategies 336 Exampl
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20 Adaptation Strategies 342 Since
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20 Adaptation Strategies 344 2. kee
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20 Adaptation Strategies 346 Try mo
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20 Adaptation Strategies 348 a) lap
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350 Epilogue This book may be distr
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Epilogue 352 ◮ Fossil fuels are a
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354 Image Attributions 1. Cover Pho
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356 Changes and Co
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Part V Appendices
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A.1 Relax on the Decimals 360 What
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A.3 Areas and Volu
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A.4 Fractions 364 Figure A.1: Paral
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A.6 Fractional Powers 366 writing t
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A.8 Equation Hunting 368 to perform
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A.10 Units Manipulation 370 Looks l
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A.10 Units Manipulation 372 we soug
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A.11 Just the Start 374 useful foun
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B.2 Stoichiometry 376 other element
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B.2 Stoichiometry 378 + C + O 2 CO
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B.3 Chemical Energy</strong
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B.4 Ideal Gas Law 382 Example B.4.2
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C Selected Answers 384 10. May help
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C Selected Answers 386 19. Twice, t
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C Selected Answers 388 Chapter 11 1
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C Selected Answers 390 13. Box bare
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Alluring Tangents D This Appendix c
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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D.3 Electrified Transport 398 Box 1
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D.3 Electrified Transport 400 It is
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D.4 Pushing Out the Moon 402 D.3.6
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D.5 Humanity’s L
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D.5 Humanity’s L
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D.6 Too Smart to Succeed? 408 Can i
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D.6 Too Smart to Succeed? 410 as we
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412 Bibliography References are in
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414 [30] International Space Statio
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416 [63] NASA. The NASA Earth’s <
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418 [97] D A Pfeiffer. Eating Fossi
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420 Notation This list describes se
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422 Glossary AC alternating current
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424 thing as a kilocalorie. Note th
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426 demographic transition refers t
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428 EROEI Energy R
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430 specific heat capacity is 4,184
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432 kWh kilowatt-hour. 76, 159, 214
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434 parts per million by mass (ppm
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436 refinement is the process by wh
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438 triton is the nucleus of tritiu
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440 fossil fuel intensity, 138 hist
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442 heat pump, 99, 297 geothermal e
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444 capacity factor, 216, 217 cell
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