Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

8 Fossil Fuels 132
Box 8.3: Resource War
Imagine the scenario in which oil prices climb from their current
$50/bbl to $100/bbl. 69 Some major oil-producing country—seeing
the writing on the wall that this precious resource is only going to
become more valuable as supplies inevitably diminish—will decide
that its economy was doing just fine at $50/bbl, so can sell half as
much at $100/bbl <strong>and</strong> have the same income. Removing that oil from
the market pushes oil prices up further to $150/bbl, at which point
other countries may begin playing the same game, but now selling a
third as much oil for the same income. The resulting domino effect
will cause international crisis, <strong>and</strong> some military power, acting as the
world’s police, 70 will step in to ensure continued flow of this vital
global resource. Other countries possessing military strength will
object to this one country’s presumption <strong>and</strong> control of important
segments of the global oil supply, <strong>and</strong> might potentially engage in
a resource war. Sadly, this turn of events would consume massive
amounts of energy <strong>and</strong> other resources to destructive ends, rather
than channel these resources into constructive activities like building
a post-fossil renewable energy infrastructure.
69: Oil has been as high as about $160/bbl,
in June 2008 (inflation-adjusted for 2020).
A compelling argument can be made that
the stress of high oil prices on many sectors
of our economy provided a trigger
for the financial crisis—putting an end to
the growth-fueled bubble in the sub-prime
housing market.
70: This hypothetical country may also have
built numerous military bases in the middleeast,
in anticipation of this day.
Box 8.4: The <strong>Energy</strong> Trap
If we find ourselves in a state of annual decline in energy resources—
having clung too tightly to fossil fuels as a cheap <strong>and</strong> largely superior
energy resource—we will have a hard time politically pulling out of
the dive, because to do so means transitioning away from fossil fuels
via a renewable infrastructure. But such an enormous enterprise
will require substantial energy investment. And energy is the very
thing in short supply. To embark on this transition, the society would
have to voluntarily sacrifice even more than they already are in the
energy decline crisis by diverting energy toward the decades-long
initiative. The temptation to vote for a politician who would end the
program <strong>and</strong> bring instant energy relief in the short term may be
overwhelming. In other words, we could find ourselves in an energy
Witness the difficulty the world is having weaning itself off of
fossil fuels despite obvious perils in the form of climate change. If it
were easy, cheap, <strong>and</strong> superior to move to renewables, it would have
already happened in a heartbeat. Maybe we’re stuck on the flypaper.
trap. This notion is further explored in Sec. 18.3
(p. 310).
8.6 Upshot: Amazing, Terrible, <strong>and</strong> Limited
History may very well view this time period as the Fossil Fuel Age
rather than the Industrial Age. Fossil fuels are a ubiquitous <strong>and</strong> defining
characteristic of this unusual time. The current level of technology,
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.