Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

3 Population 41
empowered women; better education; more advanced jobs; <strong>and</strong> greater
tolerance in the society. It might even seem condemnable not to wish for
these things for all people on Earth.
However, we need to underst<strong>and</strong> the consequences. Just because we
want something does not mean nature will comply. Do we have the
resources to accomplish this goal? If we fail in pursuit of a global
demographic transition, have we unwittingly unleashed even greater
suffering on humanity by increasing the total number of people who
can no longer be supported? It is possible that well-intentioned actions
produce catastrophic results, so let us at least underst<strong>and</strong> what is at stake.
It may be condemnable not to wish for a global demographic transition,
but failing to explore potential downsides may be equally ignoble.
3.3.1 Geographic Considerations
Figure 3.13: Net population growth rate
by country: birth rate minus death rate
per 1,000 people per year. The highest net
growth (darkest shading) is Niger, in Saharan
Africa [19, 20].
Figure 3.13 shows the net population rate (birth minus death rate) on
a world map. Africa st<strong>and</strong>s out as the continent having the largest net
population growth rate, <strong>and</strong> has been the focus of much attention when
discussing population dynamics.
But let us cast population rates in different countries in a new light.
Referring to Figure 3.13, it is too easy to look at Niger’s net population
rate—which is about ten times higher than that of the U.S. (see Example
3.3.1)—<strong>and</strong> conclude that countries similar to Niger present a greater risk
to the planet in terms of population growth. However, our perspective
changes when we consider absolute population levels. Who cares if a
country’s growth rate is an explosive 10% if the population is only 73
people? 23
Figure 3.14 multiplies the net rate by population to see which countries
contribute the most net new people to the planet each year, <strong>and</strong> Table
3.3 lists the top ten. Africa no longer appears to be the most worrisome
region in this light. 24 India is the largest people-producing country at
present, adding almost 18 million per year. Far behind is China, in second
23: But check back in 100 years!
24: Although, the continent as a whole accounts
for 35% of the total added population
each year.
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.