Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

20 Adaptation Strategies 329
1. The earth has never had to accommodate 8 billion people at this
level of resource dem<strong>and</strong>;
2. <strong>Human</strong>kind has never run out of a resource as vital as fossil fuels;
3. <strong>Human</strong>s have never until now altered the atmosphere to the point
of changing the planet’s thermal equilibrium;
4. We have never before witnessed species extinction at this rate, or
seen such dramatic changes to wild spaces <strong>and</strong> to the ocean.
Just because something big has not happened yet does not constitute
strong evidence that it cannot or will not. But more important than that
argument—which is always true—is the number of credible causes for
concern that are evident today.
Also important to recognize is that a challenge cannot be effectively
mitigated unless it is first identified <strong>and</strong> acknowledged. The very lack of
collective awareness about a credible risk of collapse is itself unsettling. If
open discussion of the possibility of collapse were not so uncomfortable
<strong>and</strong> off-putting, we would st<strong>and</strong> a better chance of preventing its
unfolding. It would be a huge relief to be wrong about the concern. But
not taking it seriously represents a colossal risk.
Box 20.1: The Y2K Scare
The Y2K 1 scare in 1999 offers a good template for how to mitigate a
potential disaster. Computer systems became the dominant means
for managing financial <strong>and</strong> government records, transactions, <strong>and</strong>
accounts in the 1960s through 1980s. A two-digit code was used
for the year in many records, not anticipating the roll-over to 2000
decades away. The early programmers either doubted that their code
would still be functioning in 2000 2 or assumed it would be cleaned
up in time. In the year or two leading up to Y2K, the issue got tons of
coverage <strong>and</strong> predictions of mayhem, as peoples’ digital lives—a new
phenomenon—were tossed into any number of unknown upheavals.
But the very fact that the issue dominated public consciousness was
exactly what ensured a smooth transition. Every bank <strong>and</strong> agency
got on the job <strong>and</strong> Y2K came <strong>and</strong> went without a ripple. It would
be great to see a repeat in the case of potential collapse. The lack
of a specific time prediction is one barrier, unlike Y2K. Without a
firm deadline or a clear-<strong>and</strong>-present danger, the temptation to delay
serious attention is strong.
1: Y2K is short for year-2000.
2: Surprise—it was!
A key contributor to awareness is in how information sources <strong>and</strong> activities
shape opinions <strong>and</strong> views. A world overflowing with information
can be difficult to navigate, <strong>and</strong> has a tendency to coagulate into isolated
domains that cater to predispositions. The result can be disagreement
on basic facts, making coordinated progress difficult. Luckily, attentive
individuals can perform an assessment of the trustworthiness of various
information outlets. The process is to watch an entire live event, like a
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.