Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

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114 8 Fossil Fuels We are now ready to dive into the core content of the book: assessing global energy dem<strong>and</strong>s <strong>and</strong> prospects. For most of human history, we derived energy from food-supplied muscle power of people <strong>and</strong> work animals, burning firewood, <strong>and</strong> harnessing wind <strong>and</strong> water flow (all deriving from solar energy). Then a most remarkable thing happened: the discovery <strong>and</strong> widespread utilization of fossil fuels. The abundance of energy delivered by fossil fuels profoundly changed the human condition, such that many elements of our modern world would seem like magic to someone living 200 or even 100 years ago. Fossil fuels still completely dominate our energy usage. Every country is reliant on some amount of fossil fuels—especially for transportation. Even though fossil fuels cannot be our future—due to finite resource depletion <strong>and</strong> climate change concerns—it is critical that we look at these pillars of modern life, assessing what makes them both amazing <strong>and</strong> terrible, <strong>and</strong> what we might expect going forward. Facing the stark <strong>and</strong> underappreciated reality of fossil fuels will sharpen our desire to learn more about what might come after, as subsequent chapters address. 8.1 The Most Important Plot Ever114 8.2 Overview: Coal, Oil, <strong>and</strong> Gas 117 Coal ................117 Petroleum (Oil) .........118 Natural Gas .......... 120 8.3 Chemical <strong>Energy</strong> ........121 8.4 Fossil Fuel Pros <strong>and</strong> Cons . 122 Fossil Fuels are Amazing . 122 Fossil Fuels are Terrible .. 123 On Balance? .......... 125 8.5 The Future of Fossil Fuels . 125 Scenarios ............ 125 Timescales ........... 126 Clues in the Data ...... 128 Geopolitics ...........131 8.6 Upshot: Good, Bad, Limited 132 8.7 Problems ............ 134 8.1 The Most Important Plot Ever We have so far gained a few big-picture perspectives on the human endeavor. First, we illustrated the absurdity of constant growth in both physical <strong>and</strong> economic terms, concluding that growth must be confined to a temporary phase <strong>and</strong> will not be physically allowed to continue indefinitely. Next, we looked at population realities to underst<strong>and</strong> how that story might develop. Then we looked at the scale of the universe, how minuscule Earth is in the vast emptiness, <strong>and</strong> explored the extreme Oil pipelines <strong>and</strong> gas flaring on the Alaskan tundra at Prudhoe Bay. A drill rig fades into the fog at top center. Note the optical illusion that makes the photo’s bottom border look crooked! Photo credit: Tom Murphy © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.; Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.
8 Fossil Fuels 115 difficulties of colonization—putting the emphasis on managing our challenges right here on Earth. In order to frame just how important fossil fuels are <strong>and</strong> have been, we again take a broad view to put our energy trajectory in perspective before getting into the nuts <strong>and</strong> bolts of fossil fuels. The picture that emerges has the potential to reframe personal perspectives on our future. The result may have greater impact if you are an active participant in its creation. So get some paper, the back of an envelope, or something. Draw a horizontal axis as a timeline. Label the left edge as –10,000 years (past). The right edge is +10,000 years (future). The middle is 0 (now; see -10,000 0 10,000 the example in the margin). The vertical axis represents global energy production, on a linear scale. For ages, this was too tiny to see poking up above the floor. Only about 200 years ago did it become visible. So for the first 98% of the way from -10,000 to 0, draw a line hugging the floor. -10,000 0 10,000 In the last 200 years, energy usage has increased exponentially. 1 So draw a smooth curve connecting the previous line into a steep rise at present (middle of the plot), using much or all of the available vertical space. What emerges is the classic “hockey stick” plot that applies to many physical attributes of our world: population, carbon dioxide, temperature, <strong>and</strong>—in the present case—energy use. In the long flat portion of the plot, our energy came from firewood <strong>and</strong> muscle (both animal <strong>and</strong> human labor). But the sudden transformative rise is really a story of fossil fuels. Even today, having added hydroelectric, nuclear, solar, wind, 1: ...a smooth curve peeling up off the floor <strong>and</strong> rocketing to an essentially vertical recent trajectory -10,000 0 10,000 geothermal, <strong>and</strong> tidal power to the mix, fossil fuels still account for over 2 80% of the total. 2: It’s even worse than it sounds, since 10% is still in the form of biomass, much of which Let us then continue the plot in the context of fossil fuels. Being a finite resource, we know in broad terms what the curve must look like. It must drop back down to zero <strong>and</strong> ride into the future looking much as it did in the past: at zero. One may debate the exact timing of the peak of fossil fuel use, but for a variety of reasons we would be well justified in placing it sometime this century. We’ll leave it to individual preference if you want to allow the curve to climb a bit more before turning down, but don’t stray too far. This century ends only 1% of the way from 0 to +10,000, so don’t let the peak get very far at all from the middle of the plot. Once turning down, the curve is likely to look reasonably symmetric, returning to zero in short order <strong>and</strong> staying there. is old-technology firewood, leaving only 10% in the more modern forms of hydro, nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, <strong>and</strong> tidal. Independent of individual choices, if keeping within reason we’re all looking at the same basic plot (as in Figure 8.1): fossil fuels are a blip on the time scales we associate with history. We live in a most abnormal time. 3 Because the upswing has lasted for generations, it seems entirely normal to most people: it’s the only reality we or any person we’ve ever met has known. Lacking perspective, a child will view their life circumstances as normal, no matter how impoverished or privileged: it’s the only world they’ve ever known or seen. Likewise, we accept <strong>and</strong> define our current world as normal—even if historical perspective 3: Social scientists are trained to not label their own time as abnormal, as such thinking may reflect a sloppy bias that all people through history might be tempted to adopt. Yet, neither should we declare that abnormal times can never happen. Any quantitative assessment of the current human scale <strong>and</strong> planetary resource impact argues that we are justified in allowing ourselves an exception for the present age. © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.; Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.
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UC San Diego Energy</strong
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Copyright: © 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr
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v Preface: Before Taking the Plunge
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vii to internalize (“own") the co
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facilitating a quick return to the
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xi Contents Preface: Before Taking
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8.4 Fossil Fuel Pros and</s
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15.4.8 Pros and Co
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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2 1 Exponential Growth Huma
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1 Exponential Growth 4 The populati
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1 Exponential Growth 6 case we get:
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1 Exponential Growth 8 10 13 <stron
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1 Exponential Growth 10 the impossi
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1 Exponential Growth 12 which we ca
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1 Exponential Growth 14 3. Our exam
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1 Exponential Growth 16 22. Adapt E
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2 Economic Growth Limits 18 But res
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2 Economic Growth Limits 20 perhaps
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2 Economic Growth Limits 22 theoret
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2 Economic Growth Limits 24 2.3 Phy
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2 Economic Growth Limits 26 who wan
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2 Economic Growth Limits 28 Just be
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30 3 Population Underlying virtuall
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3 Population 32 In more recent year
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3 Population 34 which is really jus
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3 Population 36 Definition 3.2.3 Ov
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3 Population 38 halfway to the limi
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3 Population 40 50 Niger Birth rate
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3 Population 42 Figure 3.14: Absolu
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3 Population 44 Country Population
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3 Population 46 continue until all
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3 Population 48 began to climb, lea
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3 Population 50 think that is (hint
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3 Population 52 22. The set of diag
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54 4 Space Exploration vs. Coloniza
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4 Space Colonization 56 Body Symbol
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4 Space Colonization 58 scale of th
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4 Space Colonization 60 4.3 A Host
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4 Space Colonization 62 Hum
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Page 158 and 159: 138 9 Climate Change Climate change
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164 10 Renewable Overview We now un
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10 Renewable Overview 166 The sun w
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10 Renewable Overview 168 Treating
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10 Renewable Overview 170 Source qB
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10 Renewable Overview 172 sun overh
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11 Hydroelectric Energy</st
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184 12 Wind Energy
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13 Solar Energy 19
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14 Biological Energy</stron
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15 Nuclear Energy
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15 Nuclear Energy
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16 Small Players 276 0.1 W/m 2 , ma
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16 Small Players 278 heat to diffus
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16 Small Players 280 not expect geo
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16 Small Players 282 almost 200 tim
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16 Small Players 284 It’s not an
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16 Small Players 286 16.5 Hydrogen
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16 Small Players 288 5. What are yo
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 290 v
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 292 p
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 296 T
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 300 T
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17 Comparison of Alternatives 302 5
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304 18 Human Facto
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18 Human Factors 3
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316 19 A Plan Might Be Welcome Havi
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 318 ther
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 320 Box
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 322 econ
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 324 In e
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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome 326 19.4
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328 20 Adaptation Strategies We mad
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20 Adaptation Strategies 330 debate
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20 Adaptation Strategies 332 the en
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20 Adaptation Strategies 334 20.3.2
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20 Adaptation Strategies 336 Exampl
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20 Adaptation Strategies 338 Exampl
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20 Adaptation Strategies 340 Defini
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20 Adaptation Strategies 342 Since
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20 Adaptation Strategies 344 2. kee
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20 Adaptation Strategies 346 Try mo
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20 Adaptation Strategies 348 a) lap
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350 Epilogue This book may be distr
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Epilogue 352 ◮ Fossil fuels are a
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354 Image Attributions 1. Cover Pho
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356 Changes and Co
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Part V Appendices
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A.1 Relax on the Decimals 360 What
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A.3 Areas and Volu
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A.4 Fractions 364 Figure A.1: Paral
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A.6 Fractional Powers 366 writing t
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A.8 Equation Hunting 368 to perform
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A.10 Units Manipulation 370 Looks l
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A.10 Units Manipulation 372 we soug
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A.11 Just the Start 374 useful foun
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B.2 Stoichiometry 376 other element
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B.2 Stoichiometry 378 + C + O 2 CO
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B.3 Chemical Energy</strong
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B.4 Ideal Gas Law 382 Example B.4.2
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C Selected Answers 384 10. May help
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C Selected Answers 386 19. Twice, t
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C Selected Answers 388 Chapter 11 1
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C Selected Answers 390 13. Box bare
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Alluring Tangents D This Appendix c
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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D.2 Cosmic Energy
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D.3 Electrified Transport 398 Box 1
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D.3 Electrified Transport 400 It is
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D.4 Pushing Out the Moon 402 D.3.6
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D.5 Humanity’s L
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D.5 Humanity’s L
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D.6 Too Smart to Succeed? 408 Can i
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D.6 Too Smart to Succeed? 410 as we
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412 Bibliography References are in
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414 [30] International Space Statio
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416 [63] NASA. The NASA Earth’s <
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418 [97] D A Pfeiffer. Eating Fossi
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420 Notation This list describes se
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422 Glossary AC alternating current
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424 thing as a kilocalorie. Note th
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426 demographic transition refers t
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428 EROEI Energy R
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430 specific heat capacity is 4,184
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432 kWh kilowatt-hour. 76, 159, 214
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434 parts per million by mass (ppm
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436 refinement is the process by wh
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438 triton is the nucleus of tritiu
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440 fossil fuel intensity, 138 hist
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442 heat pump, 99, 297 geothermal e
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444 capacity factor, 216, 217 cell
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