Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

8 Fossil Fuels 133
global population, or impressive state of knowledge would not have
been possible without fossil fuels. We therefore owe a great debt of
gratitude to these three amazing resources. Perhaps the first species on
any planet to discover <strong>and</strong> use fossil fuels 71 will follow a similar madcap
trajectory <strong>and</strong> even temporarily poke into space, as we have.
Yet fossil fuels bring a number of downsides, like climate change, potential
population overshoot (<strong>and</strong> associated myriad pressures on the
planet), pollution <strong>and</strong> environmental damage. More subtly, a nearcomplete
dependence on fossil fuels has transformed human expectations
in a way that could result in failure to adapt once they are no
longer available. Superior substitutes are not guaranteed, <strong>and</strong> inferior
replacements may not be gracefully adopted.
One thing we know for sure about fossil fuels is that the supply is finite.
We are arguably approaching the halfway point 72 in extraction, <strong>and</strong> have
naturally harvested the easiest deposits of the resources. As extraction
gets harder, supply-rate (relative to dem<strong>and</strong>) may become the limiting
factor well before the R/P ratio says we will “run out” (see Box 8.5).
Recall that fossil fuels are not situated in the equivalent of a single bank
account permitting withdrawals of arbitrary size <strong>and</strong> speed.
71: It is plausible that fossil fuels would be a
common result of billions of years of evolution,
resulting from buried biological matter
on planets supporting rich ecosystems—
Earth being the only one we know about
(see Sec. 18.4; p. 312).
72: . . . especially in the hardest-to-replace
oil resource
Box 8.5: Running Out One Day?
Fossil fuels will not abruptly run out one day, or even one year
(see Figure 8.6). Production will taper off slowly over decades as
ever-smaller deposits are harder to access <strong>and</strong> extract. In this sense,
“running out” of fossil fuels will not be a sudden, jarring event in
human history that sends us into a panicked chaos. Nonetheless,
passing the peak <strong>and</strong> having less available with each passing year
creates its own set of hardships. In the best scenario, alternatives
ramp up fast enough to offset declining fossil fuel supplies. But the
challenge is enormous, <strong>and</strong> success is far from guaranteed.
Given the important role the diminishing fossil resource plays in our
world, today’s insignificant contribution from renewable sources—as
presented in Chapter 7—is all the more worrisome. This fate has been
apparent to many for at least 50 years, but fossil fuel use has only
continued to increase, while growth of alternatives has been lackluster.
Part of the reason has to do with the low cost <strong>and</strong> amazing convenience of
fossil fuels compared to alternatives. 73 Another part is lack of awareness.
Sometimes old—yet no less important—stories have trouble maintaining
currency in our news-oriented society.
73: One is justified in asking why prices are
not raised to discourage fossil fuel use <strong>and</strong>
catalyze development of alternatives. See
Box 8.6.
Box 8.6: Why Not Raise the Price?
If continued reliance on fossil fuels is risky—both from resource
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.