Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

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2 Economic Growth Limits
Chapter 1 demonstrated that the laws of physics <strong>and</strong> mathematical
logic render a constant few-percent growth trajectory to be absurd <strong>and</strong>
untenable even a few hundred years into the future. In this chapter,
we develop implications for the less physics-bound concept of economic
growth, which is a cornerstone of modern society. Investment, loans,
retirement <strong>and</strong> social security schemes all assume the march of growth.
The conclusion of this chapter is that economic growth will not be able to
continue at any significant rate in the absence of physical growth—which
we have seen cannot continue indefinitely. The suggestion usually evokes
quick criticism from economists, but they can be talked down, with
patience. This is how it goes.
2.1 Historical Coupling ...... 17
2.2 Decoupling <strong>and</strong> Substitution 20
2.3 Forced Economic Limits ... 24
2.4 No-Growth World ....... 26
2.5 Upshot: Growth Will End .. 27
2.6 Problems ............. 28
1 1: See, for instance [5].
2.1 Historical Coupling
In subsistence times, esthetics held little value compared to physical
goods: you couldn’t eat a sculpture, for instance—nor would it help
keep you warm. 2 Food, tools, resources like wood, pack or draft animals
carried primary value. When basic subsistence requirements were met,
gold or jewelry may have warranted some expenditure—but even these
were physical resources.
2: Life, it turns out, is a struggle against
thermodynamics.
Agriculture freed some individuals in society to think <strong>and</strong> create. The
economy found more room to value arts <strong>and</strong> performance: things that
fueled the mind, if not the body. During the Renaissance, patrons would
support artists <strong>and</strong> scientists whose output had few other channels of
economic support. In today’s world, a complex economy distributes
financial assets to a wide variety of practitioners in general accordance
with society’s values.
Banner photo pokes fun at what physics (gravity) finds more valuable: a silver dollar (real
silver) vs. a $20 bill; Credit: Tom Murphy
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.