Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

4 Space Colonization 58
scale of the galaxy while simultaneously appreciating the sizes of the
stars <strong>and</strong> just how much space lies between.
Given the vastness of space, it is negligent to think of space travel
as a “solution” to our present set of challenges on Earth—challenges
that operate on a much shorter timescale than it would take to muster
any meaningful space presence. Moreover, space travel is enormously
expensive energetically <strong>and</strong> economically (see Table 4.3). As we find
ourselves competing for dwindling one-time resources later this century,
space travel will have a hard time getting priority, except in the context
of escapist entertainment. 13
Table 4.3: Approximate/estimated costs,
adjusted for inflation (M = million; B =
billion). [26–29]
Effort
Cost
Apollo Program $288B
Space Shuttle Launch $450M
Single Seat to ISS $90M
<strong>Human</strong> Mars Mission $500B
4.2 The Wrong Narrative
13: . . . which is great stuff as long as it does
not dangerously distort our perceptions of
reality
<strong>Human</strong>s are not shy about congratulating themselves on accomplishments,
<strong>and</strong> yes, we have done rather remarkable things. An attractive
<strong>and</strong> common sentiment casts our narrative in evolutionary terms: fish
crawled out of the ocean, birds took to the air, <strong>and</strong> humans are making
the next logical step to space—continuing the legacy of escaping the
bondage of water, l<strong>and</strong>, <strong>and</strong> finally Earth. It is a compelling tale, <strong>and</strong> we
have indeed learned to escape Earth’s gravitational pull <strong>and</strong> set foot on
another body.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Just because we can point to a few
special example accomplishments does not mean that such examples
presage a new normal. A person can climb Mt. Everest, but it is not ever
likely to become a commonplace activity. We can build a supersonic
passenger airplane for trans-atlantic flight, but it does not mean it will
be viable to sustain. 14 One can set up a backyard obstacle course for
squirrels <strong>and</strong> generate viral videos, but the amusing demonstration does
not signal a “new normal” in backyard design. We need to separate the
possible from the practical. The moon l<strong>and</strong>ings might then be viewed
as a nifty stunt—a demonstration of capability—rather than a path to
our future. We encountered similar arguments in Chapter 2 in relation
to decoupling: just because it can happen in certain domains of the
economy does not mean that the entire economy can decouple <strong>and</strong> “defy
gravity.”
The attractive evolutionary argument misses two critical facets of reality.
When fish crawled out of the sea, they escaped predation (as the first
animals on l<strong>and</strong>) <strong>and</strong> found new food sources free of competition. That’s
a win-win: less dangerous, more sustenance. 15 Likewise, when birds
took flight (or we could discuss insects, which beat the birds to it), it was
a similar story: evade ground-based predators who could not fly, <strong>and</strong>
access a whole new menu of food—another win-win.
Going to space could easily be cast as a lose-lose. It’s an extremely hostile
environment offering no protection or safe haven, 16 <strong>and</strong> there’s nothing
14: ...orevenstill available today (see the
story of the Concorde; Box 2.2; p. 22)
15: Evolution works on exploiting advantages,
favoring wins <strong>and</strong> letting the “lose”
situations be out-competed.
16: Earth is the safe haven.
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.