Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

8 Fossil Fuels 115
difficulties of colonization—putting the emphasis on managing our
challenges right here on Earth.
In order to frame just how important fossil fuels are <strong>and</strong> have been, we
again take a broad view to put our energy trajectory in perspective before
getting into the nuts <strong>and</strong> bolts of fossil fuels. The picture that emerges
has the potential to reframe personal perspectives on our future.
The result may have greater impact if you are an active participant in
its creation. So get some paper, the back of an envelope, or something.
Draw a horizontal axis as a timeline. Label the left edge as –10,000 years
(past). The right edge is +10,000 years (future). The middle is 0 (now; see -10,000 0
10,000
the example in the margin). The vertical axis represents global energy
production, on a linear scale. For ages, this was too tiny to see poking up
above the floor. Only about 200 years ago did it become visible. So for
the first 98% of the way from -10,000 to 0, draw a line hugging the floor. -10,000 0
10,000
In the last 200 years, energy usage has increased exponentially. 1 So draw
a smooth curve connecting the previous line into a steep rise at present
(middle of the plot), using much or all of the available vertical space.
What emerges is the classic “hockey stick” plot that applies to many
physical attributes of our world: population, carbon dioxide, temperature,
<strong>and</strong>—in the present case—energy use. In the long flat portion of the
plot, our energy came from firewood <strong>and</strong> muscle (both animal <strong>and</strong>
human labor). But the sudden transformative rise is really a story of
fossil fuels. Even today, having added hydroelectric, nuclear, solar, wind,
1: ...a smooth curve peeling up off the
floor <strong>and</strong> rocketing to an essentially vertical
recent trajectory
-10,000 0
10,000
geothermal, <strong>and</strong> tidal power to the mix, fossil fuels still account for over
2
80% of the total.
2: It’s even worse than it sounds, since 10%
is still in the form of biomass, much of which
Let us then continue the plot in the context of fossil fuels. Being a finite
resource, we know in broad terms what the curve must look like. It must
drop back down to zero <strong>and</strong> ride into the future looking much as it did
in the past: at zero. One may debate the exact timing of the peak of
fossil fuel use, but for a variety of reasons we would be well justified in
placing it sometime this century. We’ll leave it to individual preference
if you want to allow the curve to climb a bit more before turning down,
but don’t stray too far. This century ends only 1% of the way from 0 to
+10,000, so don’t let the peak get very far at all from the middle of the plot.
Once turning down, the curve is likely to look reasonably symmetric,
returning to zero in short order <strong>and</strong> staying there.
is old-technology firewood, leaving only
10% in the more modern forms of hydro,
nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, <strong>and</strong> tidal.
Independent of individual choices, if keeping within reason we’re all
looking at the same basic plot (as in Figure 8.1): fossil fuels are a blip on
the time scales we associate with history. We live in a most abnormal
time. 3 Because the upswing has lasted for generations, it seems entirely
normal to most people: it’s the only reality we or any person we’ve
ever met has known. Lacking perspective, a child will view their life
circumstances as normal, no matter how impoverished or privileged:
it’s the only world they’ve ever known or seen. Likewise, we accept
<strong>and</strong> define our current world as normal—even if historical perspective
3: Social scientists are trained to not label
their own time as abnormal, as such thinking
may reflect a sloppy bias that all people
through history might be tempted to adopt.
Yet, neither should we declare that abnormal
times can never happen. Any quantitative
assessment of the current human scale
<strong>and</strong> planetary resource impact argues that
we are justified in allowing ourselves an
exception for the present age.
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.