Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

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19 A Plan Might Be Welcome
Having discussed some of the human factors related to accepting <strong>and</strong>
mitigating challenges, we now turn to the question of what humanity’s
goal might be if we could collectively start rowing in the same direction.
First, we will have to assess the form that our actions have taken in
the absence of a coherent plan. Next, we address challenges inherent
in devising <strong>and</strong> adopting a roadmap for our future. Finally, a possible
target is presented that bears consideration as we grapple with possible
modes of human society going forward.
19.1 No Master Plan ........ 316
The Growth Imperative .. 318
19.2 No Prospect for a Plan ... 319
Who Makes the Plan? .... 321
19.3 Economic Regimes ..... 322
Steady State Economy ... 324
19.4 Upshot on the Plan ..... 326
19.5 Problems ............ 326
19.1 No Master Plan
The “adults” of this world have not established a global plan for peace
<strong>and</strong> prosperity. This has perhaps worked okay so far: a plan hasn’t been
necessary. But as the world changes from an “empty” state in which
humans were a small part of the planet with little influence to a new “full”
regime 1 where human impacts are many <strong>and</strong> global in scale, perhaps
the “no plan” approach is the wrong framework going forward. 2
Most decisions are made based on whether money can be made or saved
in the short or intermediate term. The market then becomes the primary
arbiter of what transpires, constrained only by a light touch of legal
regulations <strong>and</strong> public sentiment. Earth <strong>and</strong> its ecosystems have little
voice 3 in our artificially-constructed societal framework—at least in the
short term.
Perhaps we are structuring our world exactly backwards. An attempt to
put a monetary value on the earth <strong>and</strong> its intricate biological web—a
web that by construction 4 is exactly the foundation humans rely upon for
survival—produces absurdly large numbers in the sextillions of dollars
1: 96% of mammal mass on Earth is now
humans <strong>and</strong> their livestock [121].
2: In rare cases, small isl<strong>and</strong>s like Tikopia
operated under plans to live within finite
bounds. Now, Earth is effectively a small
isl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> needs to shift to a “small-isl<strong>and</strong>”
plan.
3: Consider whether a tree or a polar bear
can sue a lumber or oil company.
4: ...thathumans evolved into
Uh. Shouldn’t I have more pieces? Photo credit: Tom Murphy
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.