Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, 2021a

8 Fossil Fuels 131
8.5.4 Geopolitics
Another wrinkle worth mentioning is the geopolitical angle. Much of
the world’s proven reserves are not owned by the countries having the
highest oil consumption. Figure 8.11 shows which countries hold the
largest stocks, with a caveat that the deposits in Venezuela <strong>and</strong> Canada
are heavy oils, 66 which are harder to extract <strong>and</strong> refine into lighter forms
like gasoline, making the middle-east (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE,
<strong>and</strong> Kuwait) the “real” leaders of light 67 crude oil dominated by the
more useful shorter-chain hydrocarbon molecules like octane (Figure
8.3). One thing that should cause Americans alarm is to go around the
circle looking for close allies. Aside from Canada, with its inconvenient
heavy-oil, the picture is not terribly reassuring. Proven reserves of oil in
the U.S. amount to 35 billion barrels. At a consumption rate of 20 million
barrels per day, the math suggests only 5 years, if we only used our own
supply. The proven reserve, however, is a conservative number, often
short of estimated total resource: exploration can add to proven reserves.
The estimated resource in the U.S. is closer to 200 Gbbl, which would
last a little less than 30 years without imports at the present rate of
consumption. These short timescales offer some relief for climate change
concerns, but perhaps represent bad news for global economies utterly
dependent on fossil fuels.
66: . . . e.g., tar s<strong>and</strong>s; long-chain hydrocarbons
67: . . . sometimes called “sweet”
Venezuela
17.3%
17.1%
Saudi Arabia
others
39.9%
Rest
7.4%
Qatar 1.5%
1.5%
China
1.7%
Kazakhstan 2.0%
United States 2.1%
Nigeria 2.8%
Libya 4.6%
Russia
5.8%
Kuwait
6.1%
UAE
12.2% Iran
9.8%
Canada
8.2%
Iraq
Canada 2.5%
2.5%
Germany
2.7%
S. Korea 3.1%
Brazil 3.4%
3.7%
Saudi Arabia
4.0%
4.4%
Russia
Japan
India
13.7%
China
20.2%
U.S.
Figure 8.11: Distribution of proven oil reserves by country, on left, according to the U.S. <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration. The oil in
Venezuela <strong>and</strong> Canada is heavy oil, harder to extract <strong>and</strong> process than the light oil characteristic of the middle-east. At right is the oil
consumption by country for the top ten consumers (U.S. EIA). Note that the U.S. possesses 2% of the oil, but consumes about 20% of
annual production, <strong>and</strong> an overall lack of correlation between who has oil <strong>and</strong> who needs it.
Because the rate of extraction can be a limiting factor, it often happens
that the rate of production begins to slow down (peaks) around the
time half the resource has been exhausted, 68 producing a symmetric
usage curve over time. This suggests that the peak can occur well before
the timescales resulting from the R/P ratio, as depicted in Figure 8.6.
Once the world passes the peak rate of oil production, a sequence of
panic-driven damaging events could ensue, making it more difficult
(less likely) for us to embark on a renewable-centered post-fossil world.
Boxes Box 8.3 <strong>and</strong> Box 8.4 paint scenarios that cause concern.
68: . . . about where we appear to be on oil
© 2021 T. W. Murphy, Jr.; Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Lic.;
Freely available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/energy_ambitions.