Pan-Pacific Conference XXXIV. Designing New Business Models in Developing Economies

Accordingly, per capita potato consumption in India
is estimated to reach 31.4 kg/yr in 2030). In that
regard, it is noteworthy that consumption had already
reached 23.9 kg/yr by 2013 [4]. While the overall
increase in per capita terms is on the order of 50%
during the two decades, this latest tendency is but the
most recent manifestation of the growing importance
of potatoes in the diet in India that has emerged over
the last half century [5]. Such a consumption pattern
has been facilitated by factors ranging from the
neutral taste and gastronomic versatility of the tuber,
to the desire by consumers to diversify their eating
habits away from simply greater consumption of rice
and wheat as their incomes increase, to the massive
expansion of cold storage facilities to over 25 million
Mg that enables 80% of yearly consumption to take
place after the annual harvest largely concentrated
during February and March [6], to the persistence of
vegetarian diets among Indian households. In effect,
the BC scenario estimates that the historical trend
more prevalent since 1991-93 will continue to persist
such that potato consumption will continue to rise as
that that of the traditional cereal staples such as rice
and wheat will stagnate if not decline, a pattern
observed elsewhere in Asia over the last two decades
[7].
The BC scenario also estimates that ACR for area
harvested in potato to be 1.73% during 2010-2030,
while that for yield will be 1.32%. The ACR for
area—commonly interpreted as a proxy for
demand—seems particularly conservative
considering that over the over the last 50 years the
moving ten-year ACR never was less than 1.8%, and
that the clear tendency over the last 20 years has been
for the ACR to remain above 3 % [4][5]. This longterm
trend has been driven by the strong demand for
potato for human consumption as previously
indicated and shows little sign of an imminent
noteworthy slowdown of the magnitude suggested by
the estimated ACR. Alternatively, potato is
predominantly an off-season crop, i.e. grown during
the dry winter months when crop land may lie idle or
cultivated in crops other than the traditional staples
such as rice. Here the paradox associated with potato
cultivation in South Asia comes into play; namely,
although potato is a food crop, it is grown
overwhelmingly for cash. Farm survey data have
consistently shown that the bulk of potato production
(> 60%) is sold [5][6]. In short, the profitability of
potato cultivation is driving increases in area
harvested and will continue to do so to 2030.
The BC estimated ACR for potato yields has an array
of explanatory factors. Besides the profitability
incentive previously mentioned, these would include:
1) the slowdown in the ACR for area thereby making
it more feasible that growers consolidate their
productivity capabilities over an area growing at a
slower rate; 2) the continued take-up of existing
improved technology and better crop management
practices in terms of the quality of planting material,
water-use management, and the more effective use of
chemical fertilizers as evidenced the most recent
rebound in yields and the ACRs for yields since 2008
[4]; and, 3) the continued development and diffusion
of new production technology. In that regard, the
Indian national potato program and the associated
extension service with a long-established track record
of development and diffusion of new varieties,
improved production practices (e.g., pest
management). The BC scenario calculates that such
activities will continue on into the future thereby
facilitating achieving the estimated ACR for yields.
Given these ACRs for area and yields, the BC
scenario estimates that total area harvested in potato
in India will reach 2.6 million ha, yields will average
26.2 Mg ha -1 resulting in a total output of 69 million
Mg in 2030. These estimates imply that potato
production in India will nearly double over the 20-
year period primarily as a result of greater area –43%
higher than in 2010, and to a lesser extent, greater
productivity –up 31% from the outset of the period.
In terms of aggregate supply and demand, the BC
scenario estimates a slight surplus of potatoes for the
domestic market in 2030 translating into 181,000 Mg
of exports on average across all climate models
examined. Such modest (