Pan-Pacific Conference XXXIV. Designing New Business Models in Developing Economies

squeeze more potatoes for direct human consumption
from the commodity value chain.
Pessimistic scenario
Alternative estimates based on a more pessimistic set
of assumptions regarding economic and population
growth compounded by more adverse changes in
climatic conditions cut the ACR for food demand to
2.36 %/yr versus 2.84 %/yr in the BC scenario. The
lower ACR results in lower per capita consumption
of potato: 27.1 kg/yr versus 31.4 kg/yr in the BC
scenario as consumers cut back their in-take of the
traditional staples such as rice and wheat by a lesser
amount. Total demand for potato consequently
reaches an estimated 63 million Mg, or some 5.8
million Mg (8%) less than the 68.85 Mg estimated
according to the BC scenario.
On the supply side, the pessimistic scenario estimates
a sharply lower ACR for productivity 0.80 %/yr
versus 1.32 %/yr, or 40% less than in the BC
scenario, as such factors as slightly higher
temperatures undermine optimal tuberization and
complicate pest management. These considerations
also dampen the ACR for area harvested to 1.59 %/yr
versus 1.73 %/yr, albeit to a much lesser extent than
in the case of yields.
The overall impact of the pessimistic scenario is a
total production of potato of 60.125 million Mg in
2030, or 24 million Mg more than in 2010.
Notwithstanding, this total is nearly 9 million Mg less
potato in 2030, or some 13%, than the total output
estimated according to the BC scenario. The
production shortfall in relation to total domestic
demand generates a rise in imports estimated to reach
2.9 million Mg.
DISCUSSION
REFERENCES
[1] Diamond, J. Collapse. How societies chose
to fail or succeed. New York: Viking, 2005
[2] Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. World
agriculture towards 2030/2050. The 2012
revision. ESA Working Paper N° 12-03.
Agricultural Development Economics
Division. Rome: Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO),
2012
[3] Robinson, S., Mason-D’Croz, D., Islam, S.,
Sulser, T.B., Robertson, R., Zhu, T.,
Gueneau, A., Pitois, G., & Rosegrant, M.
The International Model for Policy
Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and
Trade (IMPACT). Model description for
version 3. IFPRI Discussion Paper 01483.
Washington D.C.:International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI), 2015.
[4] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations). FAOSTAT
database. http://faostat.fao.org/ consulted
during various months, 2017.
[5] Scott, G., & Suarez, V. Growth rates for
potato in India 1961-2009 and their
implications for industry. Potato Journal,
2011, 38(2), 1-22.
[6] Reardon, T., Chen, K., Minten, B.,
Adriano, L. The quiet revolution in staple
food chains. Enter the dragon, the elephant
and the tiger. Manila: Asian Development
Bank and the International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI), 2012
[7] Scott, G., & Suarez, V. From Mao to
McDonald´s: Emerging markets for
potatoes and potato products in China
1961-2007. American Journal of Potato
Research, 2012, 89(3), 216- 231
Estimates from this study indicate anywhere from 20
to 30 million Mg more of potatoes will be consumed
as food in India by 2030 and that means, roughly
speaking, a need for 16 to 24 million more Mg of
cold storage capacity to keep the potatoes after
harvest to say nothing of up-grades or replacement of
aging current capacity as well. Related opportunities
linked to increased potato consumption involve
further development of potato processing and
processed potato products. As the country becomes
more urbanized and the bulk of consumption like the
population itself moves from the countryside to towns
and cities, potato processing as food, snacks, inputs to
the convenience food industry seem destined to
expand at an ever more rapid pace. Prospects for
processed potato products will be given an added
boost by rising incomes. Hence, India seems more
likely to follow countries like China that have
witnessed the emergence of potato processing for
urban consumption centers as well as tourists with
mass markets as well as complementary niches
emerging as well [7].
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