Pan-Pacific Conference XXXIV. Designing New Business Models in Developing Economies

1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Communications Technologies Department,
Transport Division; and the quality of port
infrastructure, (extremely underdeveloped to well
developed and efficient) was obtained from the
GCR.
Data for network coverage (connectivity) included
the liner shipping connectivity index obtained from
the UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2010;
length of the rail lines; and, in the absence of airline
connectivity information, airfreight volumes were
used, obtained from the ICAO Civil Aviation
Statistics of the World and ICAO staff estimates.
Analyses of the interaction between GDP, imports
and exports and time issues were as follows: lead
time to import and export (median case, days) were
obtained from the LPI; the time to import and
export was obtained from Doing Business; and the
frequency with which shipments reach consignee
within the expected time, measured on a five-point
Likert type scale from low to high was obtained
from the LPI.
Within the specified data elements, the maximum
range of available data was used. All data was
indexed to 2010, to provide an appropriate base for
comparison of diverse data sources. Data is
illustrated using logarithmic trend lines.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
The figures presented in this section represent the
trend associations between logistics and trade for
South Africa between 2005 and 2014. Figure 1
presents the logarithmic trend lines of annual GDP,
import and exports.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 1: GDP, imports and exports
A positive trend association is observed for all three
indicators. Imports increased at a slower rate than
GDP between 2005 and 2007. From 2007 onwards
and increasing growth in goods imports outpaced
growth in GDP. From 2005 GDP growth was
greater than the growth in exports, until the two
converge in 2012. From 2012 exports were higher
than GDP.
Figure 2 shows GDP, imports, exports and the
composite logistics performance (LPI) index for the
time periods 2007, 2010, 2012 and 2014. The trend
associations between exports and LPI were similar
to those of GDP and LPI between 2007 and 2012 in
that as LPI remained relatively constant export and
GDP increased, whereas when the LPI declined
between 2012 and 2014, exports and GDP increased
at a slower rate. In contrast, Imports increased at a
higher rate than GDP and imports throughout the
67
time period and appeared to increase at a higher rate
after the decline in the LPI in 2010.
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
Figure 2: Imports, exports & LPI
The following section presents the trend
associations between GDP, imports, export and the
individual indices comprising the composite LPI.
Figure 3 illustrates the trend associations between
the LPI sub-indices; imports; exports and GDP. The
efficiency of customs clearance decreased from an
index value of 1.01 in 2007 to around 0.99 in 2014.
Imports increased at an increasing rate whilst GDP
and exports increased at a decreasing rate.
Similarly, the quality of infrastructure and ease of
arranging competitively priced shipments indices
experienced a negative trend association with GDP,
exports and imports as depicted in Figure 3.
The competence and quality of logistics services;
on-time performance and frequency with which
shipments reach consignee within scheduled or
expected time sub-indices improved slightly in the
period 2007 to 2014 and appear to be positively
associated with imports, exports and GDP.
Similarly, the ability to track and trace sub-index
declined although more significantly than the
aforementioned sub-indices. This was negatively
associated with increases in GDP, imports and
exports.
Figure 3: GDP and LPI sub-indices
Time
1.2
1.15
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.05
1
0.95 1
0.9 0.9
0.85
0.7
0.8
0.6
2007 2010 2012 2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 4 depicts the trend associations between
imports of goods and time variables. The time to
import (days) and lead time to import (days)
decreased significantly. This in turn resulted in
improvements in the LPI sub-index frequency with
which shipments reach consignee within scheduled
or expected time improving. There appears to be an
association with improvements in time to import as