Interrogations-and-Confessions-Handbook

70 A Psychology of Interrogations and Confessions
As far as confessions are concerned, 93 (58%) of the suspects made a full
confession or a self-incriminating admission (i.e. some admission of involvement
in the offence, but minimizing intent or the part played). In 90 (97%) cases the
confession or admission occurred in the first interview. Only three suspects (3%)
confessed in a subsequent interview. These were the only cases where a suspect
confessed after having made an initial denial. In all other cases the confession
was made readily at the beginning of an interview. This is consistent with the
findings of other studies (Baldwin, 1993; Moston, Stephenson & Williamson,
1992), which suggests that once suspects enter a police interview they have
already decided whether or not to deny or admit the offence and persist with
their initial denial, irrespective of the police interview techniques.
What Predicts a Confession?
The fact that just over half of all detainees made a confession during the police
interviews makes it important to identify the factors that differentiate
between those who make a confession and those who make a denial. Pearse
et al. (1998) used a logistic regression analysis to identify the variables from
the Royal Commission Study that successfully predicted a confession versus a
denial. The data from psychological testing and clinical evaluation, as well as
the detainees’ criminal history, were, together with the analysis of the police
interview tapes, used as the exploratory (independent) variables. A forward logistic
regression procedure was used to identify and extract the most significant
exploratory variables.
Pearse et al. (1998) provide details of the findings from the individual analyses.
As predicted from the review of the literature, age did differentiate between
the confessors and deniers. The mean ages for the confessors and deniers were
27 and 30, respectively. This difference was significant (t = 1.72, p < 0.05).
However, once all interactions were taken into account only three variables
predicted a confession or a denial. These are shown in Table 3.4. The table provides
the odds ratio, a 95% confidence interval and the significance level for
each variable. It can be seen that one variable, illicit drug taking, predicted
suspects making a confession, and two variables, having access to a solicitor
at the police station and having been to prison, were associated with suspects
making a denial.
No significant pairwise interactions were found between these three variables.
The odds of a suspect making a confession were more than three times
Table 3.4. The outcome of police interview: the likelihood
of confession or denial
Variable Odds ratio CI (95%) Significance
Illicit drugs 3.37 1.36–8.32 0.01
Prison experience 0.46 0.22–0.95 0.05
Solicitor present 0.26 0.12–0.54 0.001
From Pearse et al., 1998.