Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and ... - GFDRR

3
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
3.1 Macroeconomic Impacts
Summary
This chapter summarizes the damage, losses 137 , and needs from 15 sectors in the 26
provinces covered by the Rapid Assessment of the floods, and assesses the first round
impact of the damage and losses on real GDP and balance of payments in 2011–2013.
In addition, it will assess the loss to government revenues and needed, additional
expenditures resulting from the floods.
The summary of the damage, losses and needs are in Table 72 and Table 73. Total
damage and losses amount to THB 1.43 trillion (USD 46.5 billion), with losses accounting
for 56 percent of the total. The manufacturing sector bore roughly 70 percent of the total
damage and losses due to six industrial estates in Ayuthaya and Pathum Thani provinces
being flooded from mid-October to November 2011. Overall, around 90 percent of the
damage and losses from the 2011 floods were borne by the private sector.
The recovery and reconstruction needs are estimated to be THB 1.5 trillion (USD 50
billion). The majority of needs, valued roughly at THB 1.3 trillion (USD 45 billion), will fall
in the next two years and will be concentrated in the manufacturing sector and the finance
and banking sectors; the latter will provide loans for recovery and reconstruction. As with
the damage and loss distribution, a larger share of the needs is within the private sector.
Impact on Real Gross Domestic Product
The analysis of the impact of the floods on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compares
the post flood real GDP with the pre-flood projections of real GDP, that is, the real GDP
that Thailand would have had if the floods had not occurred. In this report, pre-flood projections
of all macroeconomic variables will be those produced by the Office of the National
Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).
137 Damage is destruction to physical assets that can be built back post disaster. Losses are forgone production or income
and higher expenditures due to the flooding that cannot be recovered.
200 THAI FLOOD 2011 RAPID ASSESSMENT FOR RESILIENT RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION PLANNING