Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and ... - GFDRR

Sub-sector
Infrastructure
Water Resources Management
Transport
Telecommunication
Electricity
Water Supply and Sanitation
Productive
Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery
Manufacturing
Tourism
Finance & Banking
Social
Health
Social
Education
Housing
Cultural Heritage
Cross Cutting
Environment
TOTAL
54,075
23,538
2,026
5,625
5,633
4570
-
3,280
234,520
2,318
20,700
13,343
5,110
7,514
6,181
388,431
Needs
15,000
-
2,052
-
-
-
854,356
2,186
176,919
-
-
-
46,870
2,640
2,004
1,102,027
3,023
6,866
1,675
899
2,997
3,425
172,640
4,343
170,140
1,128
13,300
8,045
14,990
6,183
3,724
413,378
Needs
Public Private Total ~6 mths 6-24 mths >24 mths Total
69,075
23,538
4,078
5,625
5,633
4,570
854,356
5,466
411,439
2,318
20,700
13,343
51,980
10153
8,184
1,490,458
15,462
14,376
1,422
3,037
2,635
1,125
668,045
1,123
187,907
870
7,400
5,298
12,510
3,971
1,619
926,801
50,590
2,296
980
1,689
-
20
13,671
53,392
319
-
-
24,480
-
2,841
150,278
69,075
23,538
4,078
5,625
5,633
4,570
854,356
5,466
411,439
2,318
20,700
13,343
51,980
10,153
8,184
1,490,458
Private Needs
304,012
681,587
116,428
1,102,027
Public Needs
109,366
245,214
33,850
388,431
as % post-flood revenues
5.5
10.8
1.4
Source: Rapid Assessment
Note: The needs of the manufacturing sector include loans from the finance and banking sector of around THB 160 billion.
Similarly, the needs from the agricultural sector will be mostly financed from loans from the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural
Cooperatives (BAAC). The needs of these two sectors are also included in the finance and banking sector needs.
Loan needs of the other sectors are not included in their respective sectors but are only counted in the finance and banking
sector’s needs.
Table 73: Total public and
private needs for rehabilitation
and reconstruction,
in Thai baht, millions
Impact on Current Account
As with the calculations on the impact on real GDP, the impact of the floods on the current
account compares the post-flood values with the pre-flood projections of the current
account balance. Here, the following is calculated: (1) reduced exports as a result of the
fall in manufacturing production; (2) rise in imports needed for reconstruction; and (3)
reduced tourism.
The impact of the floods on the current account in 2011 and 2012 are summarized in Table
74. Export losses will be largest in 2011 when many firms in the manufacturing
sector were flooded and unable to produce in the last quarter of the year. As a result,
exports are estimated to fall by USD 7.8 billion. Coupled with the fall in tourism revenues,
the current account balance in 2011 is estimated to fall to USD 11.9 billion compared to
USD 20.6 billion had the flood not happened. In 2012, the current account balance will be
USD 9.8 billion less than it otherwise would have been had the flood not occurred, mainly
due to the large increase in imports totaling USD 7.5 billion due to reconstruction needs
after the floods, and export capacity not resuming fully until the second quarter of 2012.
The impact on the current account in 2013 will be minimal as export capacity is expected
to resume to normal levels, while just addition imports of capital goods will be around
USD200 million.
THAI FLOOD 2011 RAPID ASSESSMENT FOR RESILIENT RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION PLANNING
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