Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and ... - GFDRR

The second assumption applies the share of the damaged area by the flood to informal
workers and international migrant workers (13.12 percent on average). The provincial data
is applied and weighted by the density of agricultural employment and the share of the
agricultural area in the flooded provinces to take into account the difference in cultivation
area. It is based on the fact that most informal workers are primarily in the agricultural
sector, which is largely area-based.
Table 75 provides evidence on the robustness of the findings, with respect to the assumptions
made on the impact of agricultural land damage on household consumption. Results
from both sets of specifications suggest that around 1.9 million households are severely
affected and thus are in need of immediate assistance.
The total number of formal workers affected by the floods is estimated at approximately 1
million. Based on that estimation and the first assumption, it can be estimated that 2.3
million of the informal workers and 0.2 million migrants are suffering from the flood.
However, if figures are calculated under the second assumption, different figures result.
Under this methodology, approximately 2.1 million of informal workers and 0.3 million
migrants have been affected by the flooding.
Excluding migrant workers, affected Thai workers account for 8.76 and 8.25 percent (Method
1 and 2) of total employment. These figures result in THB 110 billion (Method 1) and THB
122 billion (Method 2) total loss.
The forecasted estimates of the total income loss from the beginning of the flood to 2014
are around THB 129.1 billion. The total impact estimated under this method is higher than
the impact of the first and second method by approximately THB 7 billion. The economic
sectors that are highly affected are in the service sector, including wholesale and retail
trade and repair, hotels and restaurants, and financial intermediation. These three sectors
are negatively impacted by more than THB 25 billion in total losses.
Table 75: Estimates of
income loss in the floodaffected
areas in Thai
baht, millions
Public Formal Informal Formal and informal Migrants Total
Method 1 68,450.71 33,940.22 102,390.93 7,819.94 110,210.87
Method 2 68,450.71 36,535.51 104,986.22 16,963.42 121,949.64
Table 76: Forecasted
estimates of personal
income loss (2011–2014)
in Thai baht, millions
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry &
2011
4,650.0
2012
249.6
2013
250.4
2014
251.1
Total
(at nominal price)
5,401
Fisheries (ALFF)
Mining & Quarrying
-
-
-
-
-
Manufacturing Industries (Mfg)
1,494.0
376.8
-
-
1,870.8
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply
231.4
-
-
-
231.4
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair
11,413.6
21,298.5
10,726.5
-
43,438.6
of Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles and
Personal and Household Goods
Hotels and Restaurants
9,949.5
18,588.4
9,372.7
-
37,910.7
Transport & Communication
3,388.5
5,891.7
2,920.5
-
12,200.7
Financial Intermediation
479.6
24,474.3
-
-
24,953.9
Health and Social Work
36.9
-
-
-
36.9
Other Community, Social and
1,179.5
1,286.7
572.2
-
3,038.5
Personal Services Activities
Total
32,823
72,166
23,842.3
251.1
129,082.4
208 THAI FLOOD 2011 RAPID ASSESSMENT FOR RESILIENT RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION PLANNING