Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and ... - GFDRR

Figure 22: Losses,
higher expenditures and
reconstruction costs
THB billion
Losses Higher Expenditures Reconstruction
650
595
550
450
350
250
150 117
50
18
26
-50
-1
-150
-250
-350
-242
-450 -419
2011 2012 2013
Source: Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and
Reconstruction Planning
Using the DALA methodology, it is
estimated that the 2011 floods will
reduce real GDP from its pre-flood
projections by THB 52 billion (USD 1.7
billion) in 2011 before adding THB 25
billion (USD 832 million) in 2012. This
assumes that reconstruction to build
back the damage will start in 2012 and
be largely complete by the end of the
year. If there was no reconstruction,
real GDP would fall by more than THB
50 billion (USD 1.7 billion) in 2012. In
2013, remaining reconstruction will add
THB 2.6 billion (USD 85 million) to real
GDP (see Figure 23).
In terms of growth, the 2011 floods will result in a reduction in real GDP growth in 2011 by
around 1.1 percent, increase real GDP growth in 2012 by 1.7 percent, and reduce 2013
real GDP by 0.5 percent. That is, real GDP growth in 2011 would fall from the NESDB’s
pre-flood real GDP growth projection of 4.0 percent to 2.9 percent (see Figure 24).
Figure 23: Impact of
losses and reconstruction
on real GDP levels
Billion Bt
5,300
5,200
Real GDP Pre Flood
Real GDP + Net Loss*
Real GDP + Net Loss + Reconstruction
5222
5220 5219
5,100
5,000
5039
5014
4964
4,900
4,800
4,700
4780
4728 4728
4,600
2011 2012 2013
Source: Rapid Assessment and NESDB
Note: Pre-flood levels are NESDB’s projections
Figure 24: Impact of
losses and reconstruction
on real GDP growth
7
6
5
4
3
2
4
2.9
Pre-flood Post-flood Change
6.6
4.9
4.1
1.7
3.6
1
0
-1
-0.5
-1.1
2011 2012 2013
Source: Rapid Assessment and NESDB
Note: Pre-flood levels are NESDB’s projections
202 THAI FLOOD 2011 RAPID ASSESSMENT FOR RESILIENT RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION PLANNING