Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W2-G.1 Rivers, III, L.*; Arvai, J.L.; North Carolina State University; lriversiii@gmail.com Roundtable: Effective Risk Communication: Launch of a A New Book from EarthScan The field of risk communication is at a crossroads. Interest in risk communication across multiple fields is considerable, and research and practice focused on it continues to unfold at a rapid pace. However, there is still little agreement among scholars and practitioners about what constitutes effective risk communication. The goal for this roundtable discussion, spurred by the release of Effective Risk Communication a new book from EarthScan, is to begin a critical examination of the current state of risk communication. We will explore the past and future of risk communication focusing on what we have learned from past work, and what is needed to push the field forward. The roundtable will take a broad view of risk communication, presenting perspectives from multiple disciplines (psychology, communications, risk sciences, decision sciences, etc.), a diversity of practitioners, and a range of contexts. The roundtable will feature contributors to the book, each offering a unique perspective toward the study and practice of risk communication. The roundtable will also provide a forum for dialogue between the roundtable participants and the audience moderated by the editors of the book. The following speakers will participate: Joe Arvai, Roger Kasperson, Robyn Wilson, Cindy Jardine, Lauren Fleishman, Frederic Bouder, Julie Downs, Ragnar Lofstedt, Adam Zwickle and others. M4-J.1 Robinson, LA*; Hammitt, JK; Zeckhauser, R; Linhart, M; Harvard University; lisa.a.robinson@comcast.net Barriers to assessing the distribution of regulatory impacts Before they promulgate major environmental, health, and safety regulations, U.S. government agencies must assess each regulation’s aggregate economic impact and are also expected to assess how the impacts are distributed. We find, however, that agencies focus on estimating national benefits and costs and provide very little information on their distribution. To the extent that the distribution is mentioned, the discussion is often limited to noting that the examined regulation will not impose disproportionate adverse health effects on children, minorities, or low income groups. We explore several reasons for this approach. First, it may reflect philosophical framing: regulators may believe that they should choose the approach that maximizes net benefits as long as groups of concern are not harmed. Second, it may reflect political concerns: regulators may be worried that considering the distribution of costs and benefits will raise issues that they lack the legal authority to address. Third, it may reflect unstated and unexamined assumptions: regulators may believe that the distribution is insignificant or inconsequential. Fourth, it may reflect analytic challenges: regulators may need more technical guidance, data gaps may be substantial, and time and resource constraints may be severe. We conclude that each of these factors contributes to the lack of attention to the distribution of costs and benefits. However, to understand whether this inattention is problematic, we first need to better understand how costs and benefits are likely to be distributed and whether these impacts are significant. Decisionmakers can then determine whether more analysis is desirable. W3-B.1 Rodricks, JV*; Kaden, DA; ENVIRON International Corp; jrodricks@environcorp.com Integration of the science necessary for assessing potential carcinogenicity of formaldehyde: Introduction Recent risk assessments have been conducted, with much scientific debate surrounding the potential for formaldehyde to cause both nasopharyngeal cancer and lymphohematopoietic malignancies, including myeloid leukemia. Conducting a risk assessment for formaldehyde presents many challenges. This is largely due to the significant database for this compound, as well as the increasing amount of scientific research being conducted to address the carcinogenic potential of the compound. There are also significant challenges in characterizing acceptable exposures of humans to formaldehyde in the low concentration range due to its presence endogenously from normal biological processes. Highly sensitive analytical methods have been developed to characterize differences in biomarkers of exposure resulting from endogenous versus exogenous formaldehyde. These results, combined with epidemiological, pharmacokinetic and mode of action data that are available for formaldehyde, provide the data needed to draw conclusions regarding the potential for formaldehyde to cause different types of cancer following exposure to at low concentrations (< 1 ppm). Furthermore, this issue allows for the development of new methodological approaches in assessing risk of chemicals with both endogenous and exogenous exposures. The integration of these data is critical not only for understanding the potential for formaldehyde carcinogenicity, but also to provide high quality information to inform regulatory decisions for compounds, such as formaldehyde, that present complex challenges. This session will focus on the available scientific data for formaldehyde relevant for assessing its leukemogenic potential and demonstrate how these data can be integrated to draw conclusions critical for regulatory decision making. T2-G.4 Roh, S*; Schuldt, JP; Cornell University; sr767@cornell.edu Where there’s a will: Can highlighting future youth-targeted marketing build support for health policy initiatives? Amid concern about high rates of obesity and related diseases, the marketing of nutritionally poor foods to young people by the food industry has come under heavy criticism by public health advocates, who cite decades of youth-targeted marketing in arguing for policy reforms. In light of recent evidence that the same event evokes stronger emotions when it occurs in the future versus the past, highlighting youth-targeted marketing that has yet to occur may evoke stronger reactions to such practices, and perhaps, greater support for related health policy initiatives. Web participants (N=285) read that a major soda company had already launched (past condition) or was planning to launch (future condition) an advertising campaign focusing on children. Measures included support for a soda tax and affective responses to the company’s actions. Greater support for the soda tax was observed in the future condition compared to the past condition, an effect that was fully mediated by heightened negative emotions reported toward the soda company in the future condition. The same action undertaken by the food industry (here, marketing soda to children) may evoke stronger negative emotions and greater support for a health policy initiative when it is framed prospectively rather than retrospectively. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T2-G.3 Roh, S; McComas, K*; Decker, D; Rickard, L; Cornell University; sr767@cornell.edu Perils and Promises of One Health Risk Messages about Lyme Disease The next several decades are predicted to witness increasing prevalence of zoonotic diseases; however, not everyone will experience these risks equally. One such disease is Lyme disease, which is a growing risk to many but not all U.S. regions. Using a randomized experiment based on a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults (N = 460), we examine how respondents react to messages about Lyme disease depending on its prevalence in their state. Additionally, in support of our ongoing research program that examines ways to communicate about the interconnectedness of human, environmental, and wildlife health (e.g., One Health), we investigate how the attribution of responsibility for Lyme disease and its temporal proximity influences perceptions of disease risk. Respondents received one of four messages varying the temporal proximity (today vs. in the next ten years) and responsibility (wildlife vs. human and environmental factors) for Lyme disease. We used CDC data to categorize respondents as living in high, medium, or low prevalence states. The multi-level modeling shows the temporal frame × responsibility frame × prevalence (fixed effects) interactions, suggesting some perils and promises of One Health risk messages. Among them, respondents living in low prevalence states tended to see the risks of Lyme disease as decreasing when they read the message blaming wildlife behavior and using a temporally distal frame. Conversely, the same message resulted in increased risk perceptions among respondents living in mid-prevalence. Respondents living in high prevalence states who read the One Health message with a temporally proximal frame, which we might consider the most scientifically accurate message, tended to see the risks as decreasing. We consider these results in light of efforts seeking to enhance risk communication of Lyme disease, as well as the implications of One Health risk messages. We also discuss plausible mechanisms of the observed message effects. M4-I.2 Rose, SM*; Handschy, MA; Apt, J; CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, ENDURING ENERGY LLC; srose@cmu.edu Estimating the probability of extreme low-wind periods in the central United States We estimate the probabilities of extreme low-wind-power events across regions ranging in size from tens to a few thousand kilometers. We first estimate the distributions of aggregate wind power for a range of aggregation area sizes using historical wind speed data and semi-empirical wind speed data from meteorological reanalysis projects. We then derive similar distributions theoretically by aggregating the output of individual wind farms modeled by correlated probability distributions. In both approaches, we attempt to characterize how the tail of the distribution of aggregate power changes as a function of the number of wind farms and the separation between them. These estimates will aid electrical grid operators in determining the quantity of conventional power that must be available over the long term as the penetration of wind power increases, and will aid in understanding debt-financing risks for wind project development. T2-J.1 Rosenstein, AB*; Mori, CS; Collier, TK; Ruder, E; Risk Assessment Consultant, Industrial Economics Incorporated (IEc); envriskexpabr@aol.com Review of Marine Mammal Inhalation Toxicity for Petroleum-Related Compounds: Potential Applications to Risk Assessment After a major oil spill, chemical exposures may have health impacts for marine mammals, both individually and at population levels. In the sparse literature reporting health effects of petroleum exposure in marine mammals, exposure levels are not usually quantified and exposure routes are often unspecified or consist of concurrent inhalation, ingestion, and dermal exposures. It has been hypothesized that, following oil spills, inhalation of petroleum-associated compounds may be of most concern for causing health impacts in marine mammals, due to the time spent at the air-water interface where the greatest concentrations of volatile hydrocarbons are found. Determination of inhalation toxicity is complicated because different sources of oil consist of different mixtures of volatile compounds that are emitted in varying concentrations to the air overlying a spill. In order to help assess marine mammal inhalation toxicity, published inhalation toxic effect levels (TELs) for individual petroleum-related compounds from laboratory studies have been compiled. We review inhalation TELs for individual petroleum-associated compounds, discuss the potential application of these TELs to marine mammal risk assessments following oil spills, and describe possible approaches for adjusting laboratory animal TELs to marine mammals. M4-H.4 Rosoff, H*; John, R; Cui, T; University of Southern California, CREATE; rosoff@usc.edu To transaction online or to not transaction online: Dilemmas involving privacy, security and identify theft As internet transactions continue to become more pervasive, the intersection between trust, privacy, convenience, and security also becomes more important. For instance, individuals regularly are drawn to the convenience of conducting financial transactions online, whether it is for e-commerce, online banking, or bill payments. However, does the lack of protection (e.g. limited identity authentication) or too much protection (e.g. too rigorous authentication) alter an individual’s preference for convenience? Similarly, when engaging in online transactions there is a certain amount of trust that the transaction occurs as intended. On one level this involves individuals trusting that purchased merchandise will arrive on time or that ATMs with distribute money and debit funds appropriately. This also pertains to trusting that the information exchanged is both secure and privacy is respected (e.g. information is not shared with third parties). The question remains, do individuals no longer trust systems and cease to engage in online transactions? We present the results of a study that evaluates the tradeoffs between trust, privacy, convenience, and security in varied online financial transactions. We also consider how the implementation of various cyber policies may or may not impact individual decision making relative to these tradeoffs. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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