Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W2-D.4 Davidson, VJ*; Kenny, MF; Fazil, A; Cahill, S; Clarke, R; VJD University of Guelph, MFK Food & Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, AF Public Health Agency of Canada, SC FAO, RC FAO; vdavidso@uoguelph.ca MCDA-ranking of food safety issues to inform policy-makers in Uganda In 2012, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) initiated a project to develop improved tools for formulating food safety policies based on broad consideration of multiple risk factors. The approach has been to work at country level initially and the first pilot country study is taking place in Uganda in parallel with a study being conducted by the World Health Organization Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) and the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Evidence developed by the WHO/FERG study about health risks is integrated with information about economic, social and food security risks that are associated with foodborne hazards in Uganda. A series of workshops have been conducted to develop the risk criteria and metrics that are relevant in Uganda. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools are used to prioritize food safety issues resulting from biological and chemical hazards in different food sources. The MCDA tools provide transparency in terms of factors considered and weighting of individual risk criteria. The overall goal of the FAO project is to bring together rigorous evidence about public health, economic, social and food security risks as a solid foundation for developing food safety policies in Uganda. Experiences from Uganda as a pilot country will illustrate the feasibility and use of multi-criteria approaches in a developing country context and inform the development of FAO guidance and tools with global application. M3-G.1 Demuth, JL; NCAR and CSU; jdemuth@ucar.edu Examining the role of personal experience on weather risk perceptions and responses As Hurricane Sandy took aim at New Jersey in October 2012, many residents likely recalled their experiences with Tropical Storm Irene which made landfall nearby only a year earlier. This is but one example of a hazardous weather situation in which in one’s past hazard experience is a relevant and potentially critical factor that influences how one responds to a future weather risk. Hazardous weather is common relative to risks posed by many other types of natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, wildfires, tsunamis), offering people many opportunities to build reservoirs of experiences with forecasts of the event as well as with the event itself, which they can then apply to future threats. It is generally thought that past experience influences one’s recognition of, perceptions of, and beliefs about a risk, which increases their behavioral motivation and intentions to protect oneself and thereby one’s actual response behaviors. Yet the empirical literature reveals mixed findings, with experience having a positive, negative, or lack of influence. Part of the reason for these mixed results may be that past hazard experience has been both simply and inconsistently conceptualized and measured. This presentation will briefly summarize how past hazard experience has been operationalized in the context of tornado, hurricane, and flood risks, and how experience has been shown empirically to relate to people’s risk perceptions and responses. Then, it will suggest a fuller, more valid way of characterizing this important risk construct. T1-B.3 Denison, R; Environmental Defense Fund; rdenison@edf.org IRIS Improvements: Getting the Balance Right in Scientific Quality, Timeliness, Stakeholder Engagement and Peer Review Over the past several years, EPA’s IRIS program has been plagued with controversy, whipsawed by the differing demands and priorities of various stakeholders. As it struggles to regain its footing, IRIS must undertake the difficult task of striking the right balance between three sets of competing objectives: achieving acceptable scientific quality versus ensuring timeliness of its assessments; providing sufficient transparency and “due process” versus ensuring its process delivers balanced stakeholder input; and tapping necessary expertise versus avoiding conflicts of interest in peer review of its assessments. In this presentation I will first describe how the problems IRIS has faced in recent years can be traced to a lack of balance across these three sets of competing objectives. I will then examine recent enhancements in the IRIS program through the lens of how well they achieve the needed balance. T2-E.2 Dennerlein, T; Rodriguez, D; MacDonald-Gibson, J*; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; jackie.macdonald@unc.edu Predicting the Effects of Urban Design on Public Health: A Case Study in Raleigh, North Carolina The rise in obesity and chronic diseases in the United States has been partially attributed to decreased physical activity from lack of pedestrian-friendly urban designs. This project presents a framework to predict the health benefits of neighborhood designs that increase physical activity. The framework employs the principles of risk assessment, using measures of the built environment in place of the pollutant doses employed in conventional environmental pollutant risk assessments. We constructed a model to simulate pedestrian “exposure” to urban form characteristics associated with increased physical activity and then to connect this exposure to “dose-response” functions that relate physical activity to health outcomes. We demonstrate the model in a case study neighborhood in Raleigh, North Carolina, for which the City Council recently commissioned a new small-area plan intended to promote non-motorized transportation. Like much of Raleigh, this neighborhood is experiencing rapid growth; the current population of 10,400 is projected to reach 59,750 by 2040. We estimate that proposed built environment modifications would double the time neighborhood residents spend walking for transportation, when compared to current conditions. By the year 2040, this increased physical activity is expected to decrease the annual number of premature deaths by 6 (95% CI: 3-8) and the annual cases of four chronic diseases by 680 (95% CI: 400-900). This project is the first to provide a quantitative prediction of the health impacts of urban design in North Carolina. It shows that simple urban design changes could significantly improve the health of communities. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.20 Deveau, M*; Krewski, D; Nong, A; University of Ottawa; Health Canada; michelle.deveau@uottawa.ca Assessing the impact of human metabolic variability on the health risks of occupational and environmental exposures to chloroform Approximately 15,000 Canadians are occupationally exposed to chloroform, primarily in the recreational sector. Non-occupational exposures can occur when chloroform is formed as a disinfection byproduct in drinking water. Occupational and environmental exposure limits are designed to prevent liver toxicity from metabolites and neurological effects from the parent compound. Because chloroform is primarily metabolized by the 2E1 isoform of cytochrome P450 (CYP2E1), variability in the levels of the enzyme in the human population could influence susceptibility to the compound. The objective of this research was to investigate the effect of interindividual variability in CYP2E1 activity on the health risks of chloroform and to identify whether existing exposure limits sufficiently account for these differences. To do this, a human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for chloroform was used, and distribution data on CYP2E1 in human liver were inputted into the model to simulate exposure scenarios for selected occupational and environmental exposure limits. Estimates were obtained for 5th percentile, average and 95th percentile metabolizers. As expected, the 5th percentile group metabolized less chloroform, resulting in higher blood chloroform concentrations. Likewise, the 95th percentile metabolizers had higher levels of metabolism. However, the differences amongst the groups were less than 2-fold, despite much higher variability levels for CYP2E1 and microsome concentrations; therefore, these factors only have a minor impact on the risks of liver toxicity and acute neurological effects within the population. The population variability in CYP2E1 appears to be sufficiently addressed in the selected occupational and environmental exposure limits. M4-D.1 DeWaal, CS; Center for Science in the Public Interest; cdewaal@cspinet.org Risk Communication: Preparing for the Unexpected Risk communication is a central aspect of risk analysis. This multi-faceted activity is essential to effectively managing a food safety event, including an outbreak of disease or food/ingredient contamination event. Broadly defined, it encompasses communication between technical experts, regulators and the public about threats to health, safety or the environment. During a food safety emergency, dissemination of accurate information is essential. Risk communicators armed with a strong understanding of underlying risks and using non-technical terms can ensure that the public responds to a food safety hazard appropriately, and reduces the likelihood of the dissemination of misinformation leading to increased consumer concern. This paper will examine two case studies on risk communication, including the emergence of BSE in the US and antibiotic resistance in foodborne pathogens. It will also discuss databases available to assist risk communicators. W4-H.3 Dieckmann, N*; Peters, E; Gregory, R; Oregon Health & Science University; Decision Research; The Ohio State University; dieckman@ohsu.edu The Motivated Evaluation of Numerical Uncertainty Ranges Numerical uncertainty ranges are often used to convey the precision in a forecast as well as the range of possible future states of the world. However, the interpretation of uncertainty ranges is often ambiguous. In two studies, we examine the extent to which end users vary in their perceptions of the relative likelihood of values in a numerical range and test specific hypotheses about how these perceptions are generated and how they might affect decisions. We discuss four primary findings from these studies: 1) There is substantial variation in how people perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges; 2) Common cues to the correct interpretation (i.e., including a best estimate) explain some, but not all, of the variance in perceptions; 3) People show a tendency to perceive the distribution underlying a range in worldview-consistent ways, particularly in controversial domains like climate change; 4) The influence of distributional perceptions on choices was much stronger among the less numerate. We feel there are significant opportunities to improve uncertainty communication to maximize the likelihood that users will make accurate, unbiased evaluations of uncertain quantities. In highly charged domains like climate change, any changes we could make to help facilitate communication between opposing stakeholders would be well worth the effort. T1-G.1 Dietz, T*; Henry, AD; Michigan State University; tdietz@msu.edu Social Learning for Climate Change Governance An effective human response to climate change will require an adaptive risk management approach based on strategies that promote successful social learning. The importance of social learning is driven by uncertainties in how coupled human and natural systems will respond to climate change, in how climate change will interact with many other ongoing social and environmental changes, and in how soci-technical systems will evolve. These factors ensure that effective strategies for addressing climate change will need to be based on flexible strategies that allow societies, organizations and policy networks to learn from ongoing experiences and adjust responses over time given new information and environmental conditions. We examine the known obstacles to effective social learning by drawing policy network research, and offer suggestions on how social learning might be facilitated through the innovative design of risk management institutions. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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