Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
T1-A.4 HERRERA, DA; Toulouse School of Economics;
daniel.herrera@tse-fr.eu
To fortify or not, a structural analysis of the public
advisory policy on folic acid in France
This paper analyzes consumer’s response to the French
advisory policy on folic acid. The advisory was issued in 2005 in
order to warn pregnant women or women who plan to become
pregnant about the perils of a poor diet and the bad health
consequences to their offspring. The advisory specifically
mentions the peril of neural tube diseases (NTDs) that would
result from a deficiency of folic acid. We are interested in how
consumers responded to the advisory policy. We investigate
consumers’ responses in terms of their demand for fortified
ready-to-eat breakfast cereals making use of structural
difference in difference (DiD) methods. Even though the
prevalence of NTDs did not change after the introduction of the
advisory policy, we find evidence of a positive effect on at-risk
consumers’ demand for fortified cereals. Fortification is,
however, controversial because it may have potential side
effects including cancer and neurotoxic effects in individuals’
aged 50 or older. We therefore provide a welfare assessment of
a fortification policy in France. We find that the benefits of
fortification outweigh the costs by a large amount.
T4-B.5 Hertzberg, RC*; Burkhardt, EA; MacDonell, MM; Emory
University; hertzberg@comcast.net
Special Considerations for Risk Characterization in a
Cumulative Risk Assessment
The final step in a cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is the
characterization of the risks. The step synthesizes information
gathered in evaluating exposures to stressors together with
dose-response relationships, inherent characteristics of those
being exposed, as well as external environmental conditions. A
cumulative risk characterization differs from a classical,
chemical risk characterization in five important ways: the focus
is on a population instead of a pollution source, exposures
include chemicals along with environmental conditions and
nonchemical stressors, the stressors and health effects are
multidimensional, the complexity is partly handled by
simplifying procedures and assumptions, and the uncertainty
analysis is critical. CRAs also emphasize the involvement of not
just risk scientists but also stakeholders and risk managers,
especially in the planning, scoping and problem formulation
step where assessment goals are decided. The characterization
also includes an evaluation of how successful the assessment
was in achieving those goals. This presentation illustrates these
differences with case study examples, and shows how
uncertainty analysis can be applied to indices and maps, two of
the more common ways of communicating cumulative risks.
P.58 Heyl, ME*; Moyano, E; Cornejo, F; Cifuentes, LA; Faculty
of Enginnering, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile;
marianne.heyl@gmail.com
Environmental attitudes and behaviours of university
students: A case of study at an Chilean university.
Encouraging the adoption of pro-environmental behaviour is
critical to reduce the environmental impacts and to move
toward a more sustainable future. Higher education plays an
important role in educate and form professionals who will play
an important role in protecting the environment through their
decision and behaviours in their personal and professionals
lives. The aim of this study is to identify whether there are
significant differences between university students depending
on the diploma of specialisation, related to the environment or
not, the year in which they are studying and gender. Besides to
investigate which factors influence significantly (perceived
effort, positive environmental attitude or perceives positive
consequents) the frequency of pro-environmental behaviours in
the students. The sample consisted of 383 students in first,
third and sixth year by which two instruments were designed to
measure environmental attitudes and behaviours. Significant
differences were noted between those who are studying
diplomas related to the environment and those who aren’t, as
opposed to the variations at different stages of the course.
However, students have positive environmental attitudes which
are not reflected in the performance of environmental
behaviour. Upon conducting regression analysis, it is noted that
the three factors influence significantly the frequency of
pro-environmental behaviour, being the perceived effort
(negative) the most influential variable.
T1-D.2 Hill, AA*; Kosmider, RD; Dewe, T; Kelly, L; De Nardi,
M; Havelaar, A; Von Dobscheutz, S; Stevens, K; Staerk, K;
Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Royal
Veterinary College, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle
Venezie; andrew.hill@ahvla.gsi.gov.uk
Modelling the species jump: spatially ranking influenza A
virus ability to cross species barrier and infect humans
One of the most notorious group of zoonotic pathogens are
Influenza A viruses. Historically, avian influenza viruses have
been of primary concern as they were responsible for the
pandemics in 1918 (“Spanish flu”), 1967 (Hong Kong) and 2009
(“Swine flu”).The latter outbreak has challenged the ethos of
Influenza A pandemic preparedness and highlights the
importance of taking a broader approach to the problem. The
European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has commissioned an
Article 36 research project to develop a more formal approach
to the identification of animal influenza A strains that have the
potential to make the species jump into humans. We propose a
prototype risk assessment framework to spatially rank
Influenza A viruses circulating in animal populations for their
potential to jump the species barriers to humans. We use a
modified version of the classical epidemiological risk equation
to estimate the risk of at least one human infection (given an
infected livestock population) within a 5km2 area. The output
will be a list of ranked animal viruses that could have the
potential to infect humans in certain areas of the globe and,
hence, may have pandemic potential. The intention is for the
model to be eventually used regularly to prioritise
research/surveillance for animal influenzas in higher risk areas
of the globe. We will present initial spatial ranking results of
the framework model for historic strains (validation) and
hypothetical strains to illustrate the important issues and
drivers of the model.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD