Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
T2-H.2 DuMont, M. K.; Office of the Secretary of Defense;
Malia.dumont@osd.mil
Defining Risk to the Defense Strategy
The Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy assists
the Secretary of Defense in defining strategic risks and
trade-offs in order to inform both short- and long-term policy
decisions. This paper will consider the challenges of
incorporating risk into defense policy decision-making,
including how the risk picture changes with different defense
strategies and the differences between contingency risks and
enduring risks. It will also highlight the unique aspects of the
defense environment that affect risk identification, assessment,
and mitigation; among them are the size and scope of the
defense establishment and the fact that some missions are “no
fail.” It will use examples to illuminate how senior defense
officials use risk in deciding between alternative strategic
options.
W3-I.2 EKANEM, NJ*; MOSLEH, A; University of Maryland,
College Park, MD, USA; nekanem@umd.edu
A Model-based, Scenario-driven Human Reliability
Analysis Method
As a discipline, Human reliability analysis (HRA) aims to
identify, model, and quantify human failure events (HFE) in the
context of an accident scenario within probabilistic risk
assessment (PRA). Despite all the advances made so far in
developing HRA methods, many issues still exist which include;
the lack of an explicit causal model that incorporates relevant
psychological and cognitive theories in its core human
performance model, inability to explicitly model
interdependencies between influencing factors on human
performance, lack of consistency, traceability and
reproducibility in HRA analysis. These issues have contributed
to the variability in results seen in the applications of the
different HRA methods and also in cases where the same
method is applied by different HRA analysts. In an attempt to
address these issues, a framework for a “model-based HRA”
methodology has been recently proposed which incorporates
strong elements of current HRA good practices, leverages
lessons learned from empirical studies and the best features of
existing and emerging HRA methods. It is aimed at enabling
more credible, consistent, and accurate qualitative and
quantitative HRA analysis. We are presenting the set of steps
for the practical implementation of the methodology, covering
both the qualitative and quantification phases. Bayesian Belief
networks have been developed to explicitly model the influence
and interdependencies among the different components (HFEs,
error modes, contextual factors) of this methodology for more
accurate HEP estimation. These models will have the flexibility
to be modified for interface with several existing HRA
quantification methods and also used to demonstrate a
cause-based explicit treatment of dependencies among HEPs
which is not adequately addressed by any other HRA method.
While the specific instance of this method is used in Nuclear
Power Plants, the methodology itself is generic and can be
applied in other industries and environments.
T4-A.2 El Haimar, AE*; Santos, JS; The George Washington
University; elhaimar@gwu.edu
Stochastic Input-Output Modeling of Influenza Pandemic
Effects on Interdependent Workforce Sectors
Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose
significant disruptions to the workforce and associated
economic sectors. This paper examines the impact of influenza
pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent
set of economic sectors. In particular, it presents a simulation
and analysis of the impacts of such a disaster on the economic
sectors in a given region. We introduce a stochastic simulation
model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the
propagation of pandemic consequences across the National
Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this paper is
based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were
used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the
economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the
percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual
output, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the monetary
value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic
loss metrics generate two different rankings of the economic
sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms
of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and
healthcare providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors
that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors
with significant total production outputs in the NCR region
such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy
recommendations relating to potential risk mitigation and
recovery strategies should take into account the balance
between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. Although
the present study is applied to the influenza pandemic disaster
in the NCR region, it is also applicable to other disasters and
other regions.
P.92 Eller, EG*; Calderon, AA; Stephenson Disaster
Management Institute, Louisiana State University;
mail@ericeller.de
Managing communication in times of crisis through
ambiguity: A framework for crisis communication
It has been suggested that the control of ambiguity as part of a
crisis communication strategy can be an effective mechanism to
manage and affect the perception of organizations by their
stakeholders. Previous research on the perception of ambiguity
suggests that positive and negative effects can be attained by
both: (1) the communicating organization (e.g. through
flexibility, credibility, and other outcomes) and (2) the recipient
of the message (e.g. stakeholders with varied levels of trust,
confusion, etc.). The purpose of the presented work is to
contribute to the understanding of how, if any, ambiguity
should consciously be managed in crisis communication. We
consider ambiguity as a multidimensional construct, so we
argue that in crisis communication, ambiguity can be found and
managed on several levels such as in the content of the
message, in the context of the relationship between the
communicating parties, and in the form and context of the
communication. We also suggest several factors of the recipient
of the message affecting the interpretation and impact of
ambiguity. The present work offers a practical framework for
the management of ambiguity in crisis communication based on
prior research and critiqued by a group of experts. This paper
presents through translational research an applied research
framework for the use of scholars and decision makers at all
levels, while taking into consideration their perspectives,
experiences, concerns, comments and ideas during Hurricane
Katrina (2005) and the Deepwater Horizon BP Oil Spill (2010).
We believe that the presented framework offers a new
perspective on the management of ambiguity in times of crisis
and thereby provides a basis for future research and also
provides a practical framework that can be used to collect data
to further educate the field of crisis communication.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD