Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M3-B.2 Borgert, CJ; Applied Pharmacology and Toxicology; cjborgert@APT-PHARMATOX.com Integration three ways: Classical versus mode of action approaches to weight of evidence determinations In scientific investigations, the questions posed - i.e. the hypotheses tested - determine the measurements and conditions under which they are taken, the procedures used to record and analyze data, and the context in which results are interpreted. In risk assessment, the questions addressed are typically articulated in the problem formulation phase. Decades ago, regulatory agencies couched problem formulation according to the questions answerable by the science of the day. As regulatory requirements for risk assessment became codified, so too did the rudiments of problem formulation. Unfortunately, codifying problem formulation prevents risk assessment from evolving to keep pace with scientific advancements. Today, more specific questions can be addressed and answered more precisely with more advanced science, but this science is not being used effectively because typically, the risk assessment problem formulation step still poses antiquated questions. Problem formulation needs to be modernized so that modern science can better inform risk considerations. Using a well-studied chemical, chloroform, as an example, three Weight of Evidence approaches - the classical IRIS Approach, the Human Relevance Framework Approach, and a Hypothesis-Based Mode of Action Approach - are applied, compared, and contrasted. The analysis illustrates why improving the problem formulation phase is critical to making risk assessment more scientifically accurate, more practical, and more relevant for protecting human health and the environment. M3-G.4 Bostrom, A.*; Morss, R.E.; Lazo, J.K.; Demuth, J.L.; Lazrus, H.; University of Washington; abostrom@uw.edu “Every single summer”: Mental models of hurricane risks, forecasts and warnings in Miami Mental models interviews with a random public sample (N=28) from Miami-Dade County in Florida and a follow-on web-based survey of coastal residents in Florida (N=460) illustrate high hurricane awareness, varying depending on length of residence in the area. Residents express concern about wind, flying debris, and precipitation-related flooding, as well as risks encountered in preparing for and cleaning up after hurricanes, but say much less about storm surge. Interviewees describe customary preparations for and activities during hurricane season that paint a picture of a hurricane culture. Inundated with hurricane news during events, some interviewees find the media saturation tiring. The paper concludes with an assessment of reactions to forecasts and warnings, and a discussion of how these relate to causal beliefs about hurricane hazards and implications for the hurricane forecast and warning system. Acknowledgements: Funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF 0729302) is gratefully acknowledged. Partial support for this research came from a Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development research infrastructure grant, R24 HD042828, to the Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology at the University of Washington. T4-F.4 Bouder, FE*; Way, D; Lofstedt, RE; Maastricht University; f.bouder@maastrichtuniversity.nl Fighting influenza: should European regulators stockpile? This paper presents the final results of a study of the pros and cons of European antiviral stockpiling strategies put in place to combat influenza (interim results presented at SRAE 2013). Recent worries about outbreaks of a new H7N9 strain of bird flu in East Asia and its spread to other continents show the importance of understanding how influenza policy responses are shaped and developed as well as the extent to which these policies may be harmonized. We conducted elite interviews in five European countries (France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden and UK) as well as an opinion survey targeting over 3000 European citizens in the same countries plus Spain, carried out in co-operation with Dialogik and Ipsos Mori. The results show significant divergences both among regulators and wider publics as to how seriously they perceive the risks of influenza as well as the benefits and risks of antiviral treatments. The presentation will review the range of antiviral stockpiling strategies adopted in the five countries from the perspective of risk policy and risk communication. The main recommendation is that critical improvements should be based on taking risk communication on board as well as introducing ‘reasoned transparency’ initiatives to help patients make better risk decisions. T1-A.6 Boyd, AD; University of Calgary; adboyd@ucalgary.ca Controversy in Energy Technology Innovation: Contrasting Community Perspectives of the Alleged Leak at the Weyburn Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration Project In January 2011 a local farm couple from Western Canada held a press conference claiming CO2 had leaked from the Weyburn carbon capture and storage (CCS) project onto their land. The Weyburn site is one of the world’s first and largest developments demonstrating the feasibility of CCS in an enhanced oil recovery project. This was the first publicly reported instance of a leak from a CCS demonstration site and the allegations provide an opportunity to examine how a negative event can affect the perceptions of new and emerging technologies. The views of 120 residents in three different communities were explored through in-depth individual and small group interviews. Community case studies included: 1) Weyburn, Saskatchewan the location of the Weyburn CO2 Project; 2) Priddis, Alberta the location of a proposed research project that was halted due to local concerns; and 3) Fairview, Alberta which did not have any plans for a carbon injection project and serves as a comparison community. Results demonstrate that communities perceived the allegations differently. Most participants who lived near the Weyburn CO2 Project stated that there was no CO2 leak and they were not concerned about future negative events associated with CCS. Residents from Fairview and Priddis were concerned about CO2 leaks and the allegations ultimately became a factor in the cancellation of the proposed project in Priddis. This study compares and contrasts the differences in community perspectives and considers the influence of early controversy on the development of emerging technologies. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.136 BRACCA, M; MONZON, A; DEMICHELIS, SO*; ENVIRONMENT LABORATORY - DDPYT - UNLA; sandrademichelis@yahoo.com Bad decisions increases health risks: reopening of an abandoned asphalt plant a case of study. The overall goal of this work is to diminish risk by planning the recovery of use and the habitat remediation of an abandoned asphalt plant (now micro-dump) belonging to the municipality of Lanus. The site is surrounded by housing and obsolescence and waste is an environmental liability that requires early intervention, After EIS, recommended the elimination of landfill, neutralization of obsolete material, the relocation of the asphalt plant and soil remediation. The situation analysis concludes that the ground is not suitable for development and operation of plant and waste and debris existence justifies its intervention. The government proposed not to move the plant, but reactivate. The negative impacts will occur on human health in case of reopening are associated with the appearance of asphalt fumes, with immediate consequences for those exposed directly and increased risk of various cancers. As for the environmental and health damage existing waste cause pest invasion, air pollution, leachate generation that pollute groundwater The transfer proposal showed investment will be much more expensive than the reopening; however, these do not include the health costs it will generate for government since public health is covered by state; therefore preventive measures are proposed as the relocation of the plant is better than reopening, by clearing the dump and the property, remediation of soil gas extraction methods and aeration will result in diminish damages. At present authorities prefers reopen it but they did not perform EIS. If the proposal of eradication fails and the reopening of the plant will take place, a program that includes surveillance and mitigation must be developed. T4-J.2 Brand, K; University of Ottawa; kbrand@uottawa.ca Outcome informed Departures from a Default Science Policy Assumption Default assumptions are integral to chemical risk assessments, serving to bridge knowledge-gaps that would otherwise derail quantitative assessment. Each default assumption generally enjoys both an evidential base (establishing it as a reasonable approach for filling its respective knowledge-gap) and a policy sanction of being more likely to err on the side of caution. Under certain circumstances a departure from a default assumption (e.g., one concerning dose-response relationship shape) may be both warranted and championed; the focus of the champion being upon avoiding the prospect of ``regulatory overkill'' whereby excessive and undue regulatory costs stem from the adoption of an unwarranted default. The question of an appropriate standard of proof to demand before warranting such a departure has been the source of longstanding discussion. In this talk I offer a standard expected utility (SEU) framework for informing this question. Under the SEU framework a sliding scale is prescribed as the appropriate standard of proof, and revealed to depend centrally upon the ex-ante outcomes that hinge upon the choice (between the default and alternative assumption). The implications of this framework for future deliberations over whether to depart from a default assumption are discussed as are some of the challenges that may be posed when implementing it in practice. T3-B.3 Brewer, LE*; Teushler, L; Rice, G; Wright, JM; Neas, L; ORISE Fellow in the Research Participation Program at the U.S. EPA, Office of the Science Advisor (LEB); U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment (LT, GR, JMW); U.S. EPA, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory(LN); brewer.beth@epa.gov Using directed acyclic graphs in cumulative risk assessment (CRA) CRA is an emerging scientific approach for integrating human heath and ecological risks from aggregate exposures to physical, biological, chemical, and psychosocial stressors. A shift in emphasis from the traditional single-chemical risk assessment paradigm to community-focused assessments that combine risks from chemical and non-chemical stressors would benefit from a structured analysis of the potential pathways linking cause and effect. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) depict causal associations and provide an improved method for communicating complex relationships linked by quantitative or qualitative data. Rules for constructing DAGs are more rigorous than for conceptual models typically created in the problem formulation phase of a risk assessment, and a simple algorithm applied to the graph allows for the identification of confounders that is critically important to causal inference. As stressor-effect pathways are further elucidated through literature review and data collection, the DAG can be revisited and modified resulting in a model representative of the best evidence available for risk estimation. A DAG can therefore be utilized in three phases of CRAs: to identify potential confounders in planning, scoping, and problem formulation; to clarify assumptions and illustrate the weight of evidence approach in the analysis phase; and to communicate risks to stakeholders and decision-makers in a clear, transparent manner. In sum, DAGs provide the strong logical structure necessary for understanding the complex causal relationships among stressors and effects, and for assessing cumulative risks to human health and the environment. (The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. EPA.) M2-D.3 Brinkerhoff, CJ*; Salazar, KD; Lee, JS; Chiu, WA; Oak Ridge Institute for Science & Education, Oak Ridge, TN; ORD/NCEA-IRIS, US EPA, Washington DC; ORD/NCEA-IRIS, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; brinkerhoff.chris@epa.gov Development of a PBPK Model for ETBE and TBA in Rats and Its Application to Discern Relative Contributions to Liver and Kidney Effects Ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE) is an oxygenated gasoline additive. ETBE is rapidly absorbed and metabolized to acetaldehyde and tert-butyl alcohol (TBA). Published studies for both ETBE and TBA in rats have reported liver and kidney effects including increased organ weights, and nephropathy. The magnitudes of these effects vary by chemical and route of exposure. Additionally, exposure to ETBE by inhalation produced an increased incidence of liver adenomas in male rats, but ETBE delivered in drinking water or TBA in drinking water did not. This difference could be due to the higher internal dose of ETBE in the inhalation study compared to the ETBE and TBA drinking water studies. A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model could estimate internal doses to aid in interpreting these differences in effect however there are no existing models of ETBE in rats or of direct administration of TBA. We have developed and applied a PBPK model of ETBE and TBA in rats. The PBPK model was parameterized with toxicokinetic data in rats from iv and inhalation studies of TBA and from oral and inhalation studies of ETBE. The PBPK model was used to make quantitative comparisons of the internal blood concentrations of ETBE and TBA associated with kidney and liver effects. The dose-response relationships for ETBE blood concentration and liver adenoma incidence across inhalation and oral routes support the hypothesis that the differences in the incidence of liver adenomas are due to differences in internal dose of ETBE. The model is also being used to evaluate differences between administered and metabolized TBA in dose-response relationships for nephropathy and kidney and liver weight changes. The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or other affiliations. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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