Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
P.77 Marynissen, H*; Ladkin, D; Denyer, D; Pilbeam, C;
Cranfield University; hugo@pm.be
The constitutive role of communication for coordinated
safety behavior in an organization managing
high-hazardous processes
The dissemination of safety procedures and guidelines is
perceived as pivotal to keep organizations managing
high-hazardous technologies incident free. The role of clear
communication is seen as essential in the transferring of these
procedures and guidelines. However, previous research in a
gas-receiving terminal clearly indicates how every single
individual in that organization holds divergent perceptions of
the present risks. This suggests that the transmitting of
information through various forms of communication fails to
create a uniform perceived interpretation of the potential risks
in an organization. Hence, these variable risk perceptions might
actually endanger safe operations. On the other hand, the gas
terminal that was the subject of this research has been
operating accident-free for more than twenty years. This is at
odds with the average number of fatal accident rates in onshore
gas companies. Therefore it might be argued that this gas
terminal achieves some form of coordinated safety behavior,
based on a differing way of relating within the organization. In
an attempt to uncover this coordinated safety behavior, this
research explores the interactive processes between all staff.
Based on Social Network Analysis and qualitative interviews it
indicates how the ongoing conversations about safety and risk
avoidant behavior constitute a safety culture in this
gas-receiving terminal. Furthermore, it fundamentally adds
knew insights to the existing knowledge in the field of
“communication constitutes organization” research (CCO), and
more specifically to the use of CCO in High Reliability
Organizations. Finally, recommendations for practice and viable
directions for further research are indicated.
T3-F.1 Mason, AM*; Risotto, S; Wise, K; American Chemistry
Council; ann_mason@americanchemistry.com
The importance of access to underlying data
Many stakeholders make substantial investments in research to
support product development, health, safety and environmental
protection, and to comply with product stewardship and
regulatory policies. This research is often conducted to provide
input federal agencies and programs such as EPA, NIEHS, NTP,
NCI and ATSDR. In addition, stakeholders have an interest in
many of the influential scientific assessments that are
conducted by these agencies. While not regulations, they are
often the trigger or basis for regulatory requirements. While
publications summarizing the results of federally funded
research may be available, the underlying data and details on
study design and statistical analysis generally are not available.
Without these details, it is difficult to thoroughly understand
critical information that forms the basis for federal decisions
related to a specific substance. It is similarly difficult to verify
analyses independently or conduct alternative statistical
evaluations. With limited openness, the opportunity for robust
stakeholder engagement and independent scientific analysis
suffers. This talk will summarize and provide examples
discussing the importance of access to underlying data and
some of the challenges that have been confronted.
P.42 Matteo Convertino, MC*; Rafael Munoz-Carpena, RMC;
Greg Kiker, GK; Stephen Perz, SP; University of Florida (on
leave), and Emerging Pathogens Institute at the University of
Florida; matteoc@umn.edu
Design of Ecosystem Monitoring Networks by Value of
Information Optimization: Experiment in the Amazon
Effective monitoring of ecosystems is crucial for assessing and
possibly anticipating shifts, quantifying ecosystem services, and
decision making based on these shifts and services. The
selection of monitoring sites is typically suboptimal following
local stake- holder or research interests that do not allow to
capture the whole ecosystem patterns and dynamics. Here we
propose a novel model for the design of optimal monitoring
networks for biodiversity based on the concept of the value of
information (VoI). We consider the trinational frontier among
Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia as a case study. Using a multiresolution
texture-based model we estimate species richness
and turnover on satellite imagery as a function of different sets
of information coming from plot data organized in network
topologies. The optimal monitoring network is the network that
minimizes the integrated VoI defined as the variation of the VoI
in the 28 years considered. This is equivalent to minimize the
sum of the species turnover of the ecosystem. We identify the
small world network as the optimal and most resilient
monitoring network whose nodes are the hotspots of species
richness. The hotspots are identified as the sites whose VoI is
the highest for the whole period considered. Hence, the
hotspots are the most valu- able communities for inferring
biodiversity patterns and the most ecologically valuable
according to the richness - resilience hypothesis. The small
world monitoring network has an accuracy ∼ 50% higher than
other network topologies in predicting biodiversity patterns.
The network that results from the optimal trade-off between
data value with their uncertainty and relevance, has deep
implications for understanding ecosystem function and for
management decisions. Hence, because of the optimal
integration of environ- mental, social, and economical factors
the model allows a sustainable monitoring and planning of
biodiversity for the future.
T4-D.3 Matthew E. Bates, MEB*; Jeff M. Keisler, JMK;
Benjamin A Wender, BAW; Niels Zussblatt, NZ; Igor Linkov, IL;
US Army Corps of Engineers; matthew.e.bates@usace.army.mil
Prioritizing hazard research for three nanomaterials
through value of information analysis
Nanotechnologies are potentially hazardous and EHS research
will continue to be needed as new materials are developed and
new products transition to market. High uncertainty about
basic material properties and limited time and research funding
suggest that nanotechnology research needs to be prioritized.
This prioritization can be done through Value of Information
(VoI) analysis, which we apply to nanomaterial research related
to hazard identification. We implement VoI as global Monte
Carlo sensitivity analyses on the uncertainty in a
hazard-banding identification space to rank parameters whose
resolution is most expected to change inferred material hazard
scores. This provides a path towards prioritizing hazard-related
research strategies in their own right and per dollar spent in
terms of expected improvements in classification. We
implement this capability with the hazard banding assumptions
of CB Nanotool to prioritize hazard research for MWCNT, Nano
Ag, and Nano TiO2 particles based on material properties
estimated from the literature and expert judgment. Anticipated
improvements in hazard classification accuracy and are
compared with possible losses from misclassification and
research costs to discuss which research strategies seem most
promising, with implications for future research policy.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD