Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
W2-H.2 Xu, J; Song, C; Zhuang, J, J*; University at Buffalo,
SUNY; jzhuang@buffalo.edu
Robust Screening Policy--Balancing Congestion and
Security in the Presence of Strategic Applicants with
Private Information
Concerns on security and congestion appear in security
screening which is used to identify and deter potential threats
(e.g., attackers, terrorists, smugglers, spies) among normal
applicants wishing to enter an organization, location, or facility.
Generally, in-depth screening reduces the risk of being
attacked, but creates delays that may deter normal applicants
and thus, decrease the welfare of the approver (authority,
manager, screener). In this research, we develop a model to
determine the optimal screening policy to maximize the reward
from admitting normal applicants net of the penalty from
admitting bad applicants. We use an M/M/n queueing system to
capture the impact of security screening policies on system
congestion and use game theory to model strategic behavior, in
which potential applicants with private information can decide
whether to apply based on the observed approver's screening
policy and the submission behavior of other potential
applicants. We provide analytical solutions for the optimal
non-discriminatory screening policy and numerical illustrations
for both the discriminatory and non-discriminatory policies. In
addition, we discuss more complex scenarios including robust
screening, imperfect screening, abandonment behavior, and
complex server networks.
T2-I.1 XU, J*; Lambert, J.H.; University of Virginia;
jx5aj@virginia.edu
Addressing Uncertainties of Avoided Crash Risk, Travel
Time Savings, and Lifecycle Costs in Transportation
Access Management
Access management in transportation planning can save travel
time, reduce crashes, and increase route capacities. The
literature suggests a need for performance metrics and a
decision-aiding framework to guide access management
programs across large corridor networks and diverse time
horizons. This research discusses a quantitative framework to
support access management programs decision making,
applying multicriteria analysis and cost-benefit analysis with
data and parameter uncertainties. The metrics used to assess
relative needs at existing access points include: crash intensity,
crash exposure, travel time delay factor, access point density,
traffic exposure, value of time, costs of typical access
management activities, etc. Uncertain data and parameters that
influence the estimates of potential benefits and costs are
identified and treated via a numerical interval analysis. The
framework is demonstrated at several geographic scales and
locations including six thousand miles of highways of a
geographic region and its several sub-regions. The results
assist decision makers to find from various perspectives which
route segments should be addressed sooner by collection of
additional data, reserving right of way, closing access points,
new alignments, development proffers, etc. The methods
combing uncertainty analysis, multicriteria analysis, and
cost-benefit analysis should be interest to engineers,
policymakers, and stakeholders engaged in the strategic
planning of access management and other multiscale systems,
and are transferable to other topics involving cost-benefit
analysis under uncertainty, evidence-based decision aids,
strategic resource allocation, and others.
T1-E.2 Yan, Z*; Zhao, Q; ORISE; yan.june@epa.gov
Toxicity Review of Technical Grade Dinitrotoluene And
Identification of its Critical Effects
Technical grade dinitrotoluene (tgDNT) is a mixture of
dinitrotoluene isomers. It is composed of 76% 2,4 DNT and 19%
2,6 DNT. The toxicological effects of tgDNT were reviewed and
the critical effects were identified by evaluating available
human occupational and animal studies mainly via inhalation
and oral exposure routes. In occupational studies of workers
from DNT manufacturing plants, tgDNT exposure
(predominately via the inhalation route) associates with clinical
symptoms, adverse reproductive effects, adverse effects on the
cardiovascular system, and increased carcinogenic risk.
However, these occupational studies are limited due to
co-exposure to other known and/or unknown chemicals and lack
of useful exposure information. Oral studies in F344 rats
showed that tgDNT has a broad toxicity profile in both males
and females including significantly increased reticulocytes and
Heinz bodies, increased relative liver weight and kidney weight,
spleen hemosiderin and extramedullary hematopoiesis,
increased incidence of chronic interstitial nephritis, and
hepatotoxicity characterized by increased incidences of
hepatocyte necrosis, hyperbasophilic hepatocytes, and
hepatocyte megalocytosis. The incidence of testicular
degeneration in male rats is also significantly increased by
tgDNT. In order to identify the most sensitive non-cancer
effect(s), all toxicological endpoints from subchronic, chronic,
and reproductive/developmental studies were evaluated and
dose response data were modeled using EPA’s Benchmark Dose
Software. A comparison of the points of departure for all
potential critical effects suggests increased hepatocyte necrosis
is the most sensitive effect and is thus considered the critical
effect following subchronic and chronic oral exposure. In
summary, tgDNT elicits a broad spectrum of non-cancer effects,
among which hepatocyte necrosis was identified as the most
sensitive effect. The views expressed in this abstract are those
of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or
policies of the U.S. EPA.
T4-G.2 Yang, ZJ; Rickard, L.*; Seo, M.; Harrison, T.; University
at Buffalo, SUNY College of Environmental Science and
Forestry, University at Albany; zyang5@buffalo.edu
The “I” in climate: The role of individual responsibility in
systematic processing of climate change information
Past research suggests that how we perceive risk can be
related to how we attribute responsibility for risk events. In
particular, Kahlor, Dunwoody, and Griffin (2002) found that
individuals who successfully avoided becoming ill from a
waterborne parasite were more likely to attribute the outcome
to their own actions, while those who fell ill were more likely to
attribute causation externally. With the exception of this study,
a substantial gap in research lies in the lack of connection
between attribution of responsibility, risk perception, and
information processing. This study fills this gap by examining
whether attribution of responsibility for alleviating a risk issue
influences communication behaviors that are often predicted by
elevated risk perceptions. In Spring 2013, 572 undergraduates
at two large research universities were randomly assigned to
read one of two newspaper articles that emphasized either
individual responsibility (by highlighting personal actions) or
societal responsibility (by highlighting government policy) for
climate change mitigation. Results from this experiment
indicate that subjects in the individual responsibility condition
were significantly more likely to process the message in a
systematic manner. In addition, respondents with more
ecocentric environmental attitudes, more negative feelings
toward the impacts of climate change, and more favorable
attitudes toward climate change information in general were
also more likely to process the message systematically;
however, attribution of responsibility did not interact with risk
perception to influence systematic processing. Interestingly,
respondents who identified as Christian (including Protestants,
Catholics, and other denominations) were also more likely to
process climate change information systematically. These
findings suggest that strategic communication about climate
change can emphasize individual responsibility to attract more
attention from the audience and to promote deeper thinking
about the issue.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD