Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M2-J.3 Jones, SM*; Smith, DW; Conestoga-Rovers & Associates; sjones@craworld.com Ecological Risk and Hydraulic Fracturing: Perception, Assessment, and Reality The environmental impacts and risks of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to human and ecological receptors are highly controversial. Opponents of fracking contend that chemicals in fracking fluids, as well as the fracking process itself, impact groundwater supplies, surface waters, and other human and natural resources. In an effort to evaluate the risks associated with fracking, federal and state agencies, industry, academic institutions, environmental groups, and Hollywood have produced a number of impact statements, analyses, and position papers. One notable example is the Draft Supplemental Generic Environmental Impact Statement (DSGEIS) prepared by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Instead of settling the issues and calming the storm, these reviews are, unfortunately, often derided for alleged bias, misinformation, and inadequate analysis. In this talk, we identify the key ecological issues associated with fracking, identify major impact assessments and analyses that have been conducted, and present, as best we can, an objective evaluation of the major points of contention, focusing on ecological receptors and natural resources. T1-C.2 Jongman, B*; Hochrainer-Stigler, S.; Rojas, R.; Feyen, L.; Bouwer, L.M.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.; Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam; brenden.jongman@vu.nl Challenging disaster risk financing capacities: probabilistic flood risk assessment on pan-European scale Flooding of rivers is the most frequent and damaging natural hazard currently affecting European countries, causing annual losses of more than 9 billion USD. The upward trend in damages that is reported over the past three decades across the continent is expected to continue in the future, as a result of changes in flood hazard, and increases in exposure. Several mechanisms are in place to distribute and compensate flood losses on both country and European Union levels. These mechanisms can be divided into three main categories: insurance, national government funding and the EU-funded Solidarity Fund. The sustainability and viability of the risk financing sources is subject to changes in disaster risk, and in particular flood risk. To analyse the pressure on the financing mechanisms, a probabilistic approach is required that assesses changes in exceedance probabilities of high losses. In this paper we (1) present probabilistic trends and projections in flood losses for different parts of Europe using empirical loss data and high-detail risk modelling techniques; (2) analyse the public and private mechanisms in place for financing flood recovery and adaptation; (3) assess the expected required and available funds for the period 2010 – 2050; and (4) propose policy on flood risk financing going forward. The results are important for researchers, policy makers and (re-) insurance firms that are concerned with natural disaster costs and financing mechanisms. The novel probabilistic methods can be relevant for scholars and analysts working on risk assessment across different regions. T4-H.2 Jose, VRR*; Zhuang, J; Georgetown University; vrj2@georgetown.edu Beyond Risk-Neutrality in Attacker-Defender Games: Expected Utility and Cumulative Prospect Theories Traditional models of attacker-defender games typically assume that players are risk-neutral. Behavioral research however has shown that individuals often violate risk-neutrality. In this talk, we consider how the use of alternative decision making frameworks, namely expected utility and prospect theories, affects the equilibrium behavior of players in attacker-defender games. We then demonstrate how certain results may no longer hold when risk-neutrality is dropped in favor of these theories. For example, we show that although the literature posits that the more risk-averse a defender is, the more likely she is to defend, and that the less risk-averse an attacker is, the more likely he is to attack, we find that this behavior may not always be true when other factors such as risk preferences and loss aversion are considered. T1-F.2 Jovanovic, A. S.; ZIRIUS, University of Stuttgart & EU-VRi, Stuttgart, Germany; jovanovic@risk-technologies.com Aligning approaches to management of emerging risks – the new European CEN CWA pre-standard The contribution highlights practical aspects of the development and practical application of the EU approach set up in the European pre-standard document issued by CEN (European Committee for Standardization) entitled “CWA 67 - General Framework and Guidelines for Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging New Technology Related Risks” (http://www.cen.eu/cen/ Sectors/TechnicalCommitteesWorkshops/ Workshops/Pages/WS67-IntegRisks.aspx). The document is based on the results of the iNTeg-Risk project (www.integrisk.eu-vri.eu). Main goals of the pre-standardization action has been to provide a better basis for the consensus needed for acceptance of new technologies. This acceptance can be reached only if the stakeholders are convinced that possible or perceived emerging risks related to these technologies can be managed in a safe, responsible and transparent way. The role of the CEN documents is, hence, also the improving the management of emerging risks, primarily by proposing a procedure for early recognition and monitoring of emerging risks and decrease reaction times if major accidents involving emerging risks happen (improved resilience). The CWA consists of a general Guideline for the Emerging Risk Management Framework (ERMF) supported by additional parts dealing with Emerging Risks related in particular to (a) New Technologies, (b) New Materials and Products, (c) New Production and Production Networks, (d) Emerging Risks Policies and (e) Uncertainties in testing procedures. The alignment of positions and development and approval of the CWA have involved European industry, research institutions and academia, as well as representatives of the European standardization bodies, under the leadership of the German national standardization body DIN. Liaison to ISO and the ISO 31000 standard and the respective ISO Committee (TS 262) have been established. The CWA is not intended for certification. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.65 JYOTHIKUMAR, V; University of Virginia; vinzymes@gmail.com Biological weapons and bioterrorism threat assessment. Present day terrorists do not officially represent countries or states, but often they represent a religious ideology expressed through violence and death. The use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against civilian noncombatants is not novel or unique to present times. Mankind has exploited diseases, toxins, and poisons since the earliest days of recorded history to wage warfare, commit crimes, and force others. However, accessibility to biological weapon agents, and their enhanced capacity to cause morbidity and mortality, as well as improvement of tactics for their employment, have significantly increased the need for the development of more effective means of detecting and countering such weapons. Infectious diseases have unquestionably played a significant and defining role in the overall progression of mankind, religions, and cultures to the structure and organization of economies and governments. Bacterial pathogens that can be potentially used as biological threat are typically 1–2 microns and are most effective when inhaled or ingested into the body. Antibiotic-resistant strains of anthrax, plague, and tularemia are known to exist naturally and may be exploited for weapons. Bacillis anthracis , for example, can be weaponized by attaching spores to carrier particles. A new economical way to screen such samples in nature is by using autofluorescence. Autofluorescence is based on the detection of natural intrinsic tissue fluorescence emitted by endogenous molecules such as co-enzyme, collagen and flavins. After excitation by a short-wavelength light source, these fluorophores emit light of longer wavelengths. The overall fluorescence emission patterns differ among various bacterial species due to corresponding differences in fluorophores concentration, metabolic state. Bacterial spores contain a high concentration of endogenous fluorophores besides other elements, which may allow a proper discrimination of spores from other suspicious particles. T4-G.5 KAIN, NA*; JARDINE, CG; WONG, J; University of Alberta; nkain@ualberta.ca Learning from SARS and H1N1: A comparison of survey data from nurses in Alberta, Canada Over the past decade, two major communicable respiratory disease outbreaks affected Canada: the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and the pandemic H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009. Playing the dual role of both front-line caregivers and information conduits, nurses were an integral component in the public health and healthcare response to both outbreaks. In the Canadian province of Alberta, surveys of nurses were conducted after these public health crises (2004/5 and 2010, respectively) to assess nurses’ perspectives on the risk communication issues related to the SARS and H1N1 outbreaks in Canada. Both surveys were components of larger research projects examining the various risk communications processes surrounding these public health events, so that communications strategies in Alberta and Canada might be improved in the incidence of a future infectious disease outbreak. A total of 361 Alberta nurses completed the SARS self-administered paper-based mailed survey in 2004/5, and 1,953 Alberta nurses completed the H1N1 anonymous internet-based online survey in 2010. Both open and closed-ended questions were asked in the surveys, including demographic information, questions related to nurses’ information sources about the outbreak/disease, access to information about the disease/outbreak, understanding of the disease symptoms, their perceived roles and responsibilities during the outbreak, and whether or not the information they received about the disease/outbreak was confusing or conflicting. Similarities and differences between nurses’ responses post-SARS and post-H1N1 are outlined, compared and contrasted. Recommendations from nurses in Alberta relating to future risk communications regarding infectious disease outbreaks are summarized. P.104 KAIN, NA; University of Alberta; nkain@ualberta.ca Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication to Family Physicians in Canada Family physicians play the unique role in the Canadian health care system of being both recipients and translators of complex health risk information. This role is especially highlighted during times of public health crisis, such as the SARS outbreak in 2003, the Maple Leaf Foods Listeria outbreak in 2008, and the H1N1 pandemic influenza outbreak in 2009. Reviews of these crises outline the necessity for improved risk communication of appropriate and timely information to family physicians. Public health and professional agencies need to better understand the information-seeking behaviours, knowledge requirements and trust relationships of this community, in order to maximize the potential of knowledge dissemination to this group, and to improve the risk communication of crisis/emergency information to family physicians in Canada. This paper outlines an original research study that will: 1) explore the way in which Canadian family physicians access information during times of public health crisis/emergency, 2) acquire a clear understanding of who family physicians trust for timely, accurate and credible information, and 3) assess the knowledge requirements and risk communication needs of family physicians. Using a phenomenological approach, individual interviews will be conducted with family physicians from various practice settings and locations across Canada. The interviews will be audio-record and transcribed verbatim and coded to identify descriptions of the phenomenon of risk communication of crisis/emergency information to family physicians, and then by clustering these descriptions into categories to describe the “essence” of this phenomenon. A set of recommendations for public health and professional agencies in Canada to improve risk communication strategies for family physicians relating to crisis/emergency information will be proposed. P.107 Kajihara, H; National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; kajihara.hideo@aist.go.jp Selection of next-generation low global-warming-potential refrigerants by using a risk trade-off framework Because the refrigerants currently used in air-conditioners have high global-warming-potential (GWP), substances with lower GWP, such as R-1234yf, are being sought as candidate next-generation refrigerants. However, low-GWP substances often have comparatively high chemical reactivity and may carry increased risks of combustibility, toxicity, generation of degraded products, and CO2 emission increase caused by poor energy-saving performance. It is therefore possible that there is a risk trade-off between currently used refrigerants and low-GWP ones. In this research, I proposed a framework for evaluating this risk trade-off in the following five categories: (1) environmental characteristics; (2) combustion characteristics; (3) toxicity; (4) volume of greenhouse gas emissions; and (5) applicability to air-conditioning equipment. I then selected substances well suited as next-generation refrigerants in accordance with a specific screening process. I showed the importance of clearly specifying the combination of a number of end points and assessment criteria in the process of decision-making based on risk trade-off. This yields a rapid understanding of the necessary data, as well as flexible decision-making that is relevant to the social conditions. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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