Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
W4-F.5 Wiener, JB; Duke University; wiener@law.duke.edu
Global Risks, Catastrophes, Crises, Regulation and
Liability
Global catastrophic risks pose several challenges for
governance. This presentation takes a comparative institutional
approach to different legal/policy measures for such risks,
notably the classic alternatives of regulation and liability. Ex
ante regulation may be precautionary, but faces challenges
including priority-setting, benefit-cost judgments, risk-risk
tradeoffs, and the political psychology of mobilizing regulatory
action to address a future catastrophic risk. As to mobilizing
action, collective action problems pose serious hurdles for
global regulation; and although crisis events can spur demand
for regulation, global catastrophes may lack antecedent crises
as a basis for institutional learning, and not all types of crises
may spur effective types of regulatory responses. Ex post
liability may be compensatory and deterrent, but faces
challenges including foreseeability, proving causation, multiple
plaintiffs and defendants, sovereign immunity, defendants not
subject to national or international courts' jurisdictions,
damages valuation, damages exceeding tortfeasors' assets, and
the catastrophe itself disabling the institutions of liability.
These alternatives and their challenges will be illustrated with
examples such as "back contamination" from outer space,
climate change, and geoengineering. The presentation draws
on the author's involvement in research projects on "The
Tragedy of the Uncommons" and on "Recalibrating Risk: Crises,
Perceptions and Regulatory Responses."
P.141 Wilkie, A*; Datko-Williams, L; Richmond-Bryant, J;
ORISE; U.S. EPA; wilkie.adrien@epa.gov
Analysis of U.S. soil lead (Pb) studies from 1970-2012
Although lead (Pb) emissions to the air have substantially
decreased in the United States since the phase-out of leaded
gasoline completed in 1995, amounts of Pb in some soils remain
elevated. Lead concentrations in residential and recreational
soils are of concern because health effects have been
associated with Pb exposure. Elevated soil Pb is especially
harmful to young children due to their higher likelihood of soil
ingestion. In this study, U.S. soil Pb data published from 1970
through 2012 was compiled and analyzed to reveal spatial
and/or temporal soil Pb trends in the U.S. over the past 40
years. A total of 84 soil Pb studies across 62 U.S. cities were
evaluated. Median soil Pb values from the studies were
analyzed with respect to year of sampling, residential location
type (e.g., urban, suburban), and population density. In
aggregate, there was no statistically significant correlation
between year and median soil Pb; however, within single cities,
soil Pb generally declined over time. Our analysis shows that
soil Pb quantities in city centers were generally highest and
declined towards the suburbs and exurbs of the city. In
addition, there was a statistically significant, positive
relationship between median soil Pb and population density. In
general, the trends examined here align with previously
reported conclusions that soil Pb levels are higher in larger
urban areas and Pb tends to remain in soil for long periods of
time. The views expressed in this abstract are those of the
authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies
of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
W2-A.2 Williams, RA; Mercatus Center at George Mason
University; RWilliams@mercatus.gmu.edu
Too Many Rules, Too Much Risk
Risk assessment is performed to aid in deciding where
interventions in markets can act to reduce risks. Risk
assessments typically address individual hazards and either one
or multiple sources of exposure. These risk assessments inform
federal regulations, which act in conjunction with state, local
and even private rules. Even prior to the widespread
introduction of risk analysis however, governments were
establishing rules in the attempt to reduce risk. Some rules are
over 100 years old. These rules are rarely changed and almost
never removed, despite a rapidly changing society. At the
federal level, this has resulted in 170,000 pages of rules with
mandatory requirements, to do or refrain from doing
something, at well over 1 million. Twenty five years ago
Elizabeth Nichols and Aaron Wildavsky reported that multiple
rules and safety systems were responsible for nuclear power
plants being less safe as rules and systems began to interfere
with one another – a “major contributing factor” in the
Chernobyl accident. With more research, we are beginning to
uncover other reasons that the idea that more rules equal more
safety, the “linearity” assumption, may be wrong. For example,
recent research by industrial psychologists shows that
excessive amounts of rules turns plant employees into
automatons following excessive, prescriptive rules rather than
being aware of new threats and solving problems. Even when
trying to follow rules, equal weighting on rules of widely
differing effectiveness causes less attention to be paid to the
serious ones.
P.35 Williams, BH*; Pierce, JS; Glynn, ME; Johns, LE; Adhikari,
R; Finley, BL; Cardno ChemRisk;
Brenten.Williams@cardno.com
Residential and Occupational Exposure to Wood Treating
Operations and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: A
Meta-Analysis
There are hundreds of former and currently active wood
treating facilities in the United States, and over time concerns
have been raised regarding the potential chronic health effects
associated with wood treating-related exposures. It has been
suggested in the peer-reviewed literature that exposure to
chemicals related to historical wood treating operations (in
particular, pentachlorophenol [PCP]) is associated with an
increased risk in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). To test the
merits of this assertion, we conducted a systematic review of all
published and unpublished analyses that report risk estimates
for NHL in (1) residents of communities surrounding wood
treating operations, (2) wood treating workers, and (3)
non-wood treating workers who were exposed to chemicals
associated with wood treating operations (creosote, coal tar
and associated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs] and
PCP). A total of 12 studies, including independent cohort,
record-linkage, and case-control studies, were included in the
meta-analysis. Using a random effects model, meta-relative
risks (meta-RRs) were calculated for each exposure group. The
summary relative risk (meta-RR) for NHL overall was 1.31 (95%
confidence interval [CI]: 0.93, 1.85). No statistically significant
meta-RRs were observed among residents of communities in
the vicinity of wood treating facilities (meta-RR=0.75; 95% CI:
0.37, 1.51); wood treating workers (meta-RR=1.89; 95% CI:
0.69, 4.12); workers exposed to coal tar, creosote, and
associated PAHs (meta-RR=1.37; 95% CI: 0.80, 2.34); and
workers exposed to PCP (meta-RR=1.61; 95% CI: 0.99, 2.62).
Notably, many of the occupational studies, and in particular
those conducted among manufacturing workers, were limited
by the inability to distinguish the potential confounding effects
of contaminants, particularly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins
(PCDDs), within chlorophenols. Nevertheless, there is no
evidence in the studies reviewed that residential or
occupational exposures related to wood treating operations
increase the risk of NHL.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD