Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
M4-A.3 Cohen, SM; University of Nebraska Medical Center;
scohen@unmc.edu
A common mode of action for arsenical toxicity
Inorganic arsenic increases the risk of cancer in humans,
primarily of the urinary bladder, skin, and lung. Systematic
investigation of the mode of action of urinary bladder
carcinogenesis in rats and mice strongly supports a mode of
action involving generation of reactive trivalent arsenicals
which bind to sulfhydryl groups of critical proteins in the target
cells, leading to cytotoxicity and consequent regenerative
proliferation, increasing the risk of cancer. Arsenicals are not
DNA reactive. Evidence for indirect genotoxicity indicates that
this only occurs at extremely high concentrations in vitro or in
vivo. Intracellular inclusions that occur in mice and humans,
similar to those observed with other metals, have been
mistaken for micronuclei in a variety of epidemiology studies.
Although the evidence for cytotoxicity and regenerative
proliferation as the mode of action is strongest for the urinary
bladder, evidence is accumulating that a similar process occurs
in the lung and skin, and is likely for other epithelial cell
systems and for other, noncancer effects. This mode of action is
consistent with a nonlinear dose response with a threshold. In
rodents, the no effect level is 1 ppm of the diet or drinking
water, and in vitro the no effect level is greater than 0.1 µM
trivalent arsenic. Administration of inorganic arsenic is
necessary above doses of 1 ppm to generate urinary or tissue
concentrations above 0.1 µM. In effect, arsenicals produce a
preneoplastic lesion, toxicity and cell death with regenerative
proliferation, leading to increased risk of cancer if continued
over time. This mode of action in animals is consistent with
inorganic arsenic epidemiology and other studies in humans for
these cell types. Reaction of trivalent arsenicals with critical
sulfhydryl groups in target cells is the basis for inorganic
arsenic toxicity for non-cancer and cancer effects.
W3-H.4 Coles, JB*; Zhuang, J; University at Buffalo;
jbcoles@buffalo.edu
Ideal Disaster Relief?: Using the IFRC Code of Conduct in
model development
Bridging the gap between research and practice has been a
recognized problem in many fields, and has been especially
noticeable in the field of disaster relief. As the number and
impact of disasters have increased, there has been great
interest from the research community to model and provide
solutions for some of the challenges in the field. However, this
research has not always been guided by an understanding of
the complex and nuanced challenges faced by people working
in disaster relief. In this talk we propose a model for the
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies (IFRC) Code of Conduct (CoC) for use in relief
operations. The CoC provides organizations involved in disaster
relief with a clear set of expectations and objectives for
behavior in a relief operation. The CoC is nonbinding and is
designed to help organizations self-assess and refocus disaster
relief operations. Additionally, the code provides a list of
standards that could be used to assess a potential partner to
ensure operational excellence and make sure that investments
in relief are conducted with the utmost integrity. Though there
are several standards and codes that apply aid and disaster
relief, the CoC is of particular interest because it examines the
methodology of operations rather than just a minimum goal
(such as the SPHERE standards) or an overarching philosophy
(such as the Seven Fundamental Principles of the IFRC).
P.142 Coles, JB*; Zhuang, J; University at Buffalo;
jbcoles@buffalo.edu
Model Validation in Disaster Relief Partner Selection and
Maintenance
In this research we study how optimization, simulation, and
game theory models could help agencies make better decisions
after a disaster. To better understand the behavioral dynamics
of interagency interaction, we interviewed over 60 agencies
about their network behavior using an ego-centric approach,
and used this data to propose a set of experiments to examine
agency decision making in disaster relief operations. The full
process of network development is complex, but in this poster
we focus on the process of partner selection in an environment
that is both cooperative and competitive. The partner selection
model proposed here was developed from interviews conducted
with agencies involved in disaster relief operations in response
the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, the 2011 Tornado in Joplin
Missouri, and Hurricane Sandy along the east coast of the
United States. The model proposed will be initially validated
using student data to provide a granular estimate of how
interagency dynamics work. Once the initial validation is
complete, we will conduct a secondary validation process with
decision makers working in disaster relief agencies.
P.108 COLON, L; MONZON, A; DEMICHELIS, S*; National
University of Lanus; sandrademichelis@yahoo.com
Contamination risks and effects on suburban areas by a
ceramic and tiles factories: a case of study
The aim of the study is to evaluate the contamination produced
by a factory of ceramic and tiles which is located in the
Industrial Park of Burzaco, Almirante Brown County, Buenos
Aires Province, Argentina. There is an urbanization surrounding
this industrial area without any kind of barrier The tiles factory
delivered into the media uncontrolled residual waters from
productive process in an artificial pond and which is in contact
with population since eventually it discharges into a natural
stream and due it was not adequately built affecting
groundwater. Waste water, soil and air sources of pollution
were analyzed On the other hand, there is a neighborhood
under risk, which had been surrounded by the Industrial park
growth and which is directly affected by particulate material
disposed in open areas on the soil and by uncontrolled gaseous
emissions. The population vulnerability is increased by strong
rains since run off transports particulates from accumulation
areas and pollutants from the lagoon overflows.. This work
presents an integral system of environmental and waste water
management, that integrates technological improvements
including the use of a effluent treatment system, an
intervention protocol for administrative and productive sectors
in order to guarantee a correct life cycle of their products and
diminish inhabitants risks .
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD