Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-I.4 Kajitani, Y*; Yuyama, A; Central Reserach Institute of Electric Power Industry; y-kaji@criepi.denken.or.jp Operational Reliability of Power Plants and Energy Shortage Risk in Japan after the March 11 Earthquake and Tsunami The power shortages following the Great East Japan Earthquake create persistent impacts on Japanese society. The firms which are not only located in the severely damaged area but also outside the area had to reduce power usage both at peak and total and spent considerable efforts to achieve the target amount of power consumption. After the event, thermal and hydro power plants substitute nuclear powers by paying the efforts to reduce the shut-down periods, but there is uncertainty that they can be affected by internal and external incidents. In addition, the supply capacity and demand of electricity can be influenced by many other factors such as capacity of saving energy both in household and industry depending on temperature, rain falls for hydropower plants, etc. This presentation introduces these supply and demand uncertainty based on the experience of march 11 disaster in Japan, and estimate the risk of supply shortages by some statistical models. T2-J.3 Kashuba, R*; Fairbrother, A; Kane Driscoll, S; Tinsworth, R; Exponent; rkashuba@exponent.com Probabilistic Methods to Address Ecological Risk of Secondary Ingestion Exposure to Chemicals The goal of risk assessment is to evaluate the potential of a future adverse event based on current information, which necessarily wrestles with the interpretation of uncertainty. Such uncertainty includes (1) how well available data characterize “true” values now and in the future, (2) how well mathematical simplifications approximate “true” relationships between variables, overlaid with (3) natural variability in attributes within a population (e.g., body weight). Probabilistic risk assessment methods enable a risk assessor to incorporate these different sources of uncertainty into the characterization of risk. Not only does this create a more complete picture of the risk profile, it also quantifies the proportion of the population likely affected and the certainty with which that prediction can be made. In contrast to deterministic risk, estimated for a constant average or worst-case scenario, probabilistic risk is assessed across the range of possible scenarios, and the likelihood of each occurring. This process is examined through calculation of the ecological risk associated with hypothetical potential ingestion of chemical-exposed prey by non-target predators. Distributions of possible secondary exposures to a predator are calculated via Monte Carlo sampling from distributions of input variables, such as body weight, food ingestion rate, percent of predator diet composed of a particular prey, and percent of prey population containing chemical residues (from primary exposure). These dose-to-predator distributions are then propagated through a distribution of possible dose-response curves, resulting in distributions of expected mortality rates, which integrate uncertainty associated with both exposure and effects estimation. Risk is then reported as the likelihood of exceeding different mortality thresholds. Changes to reported risk as a result of different modeling assumptions are evaluated, and challenges of communicating probabilistic risk are explored. T1-G.2 Kasperson, RE; Clark University; rkasperson@clarku.edu Social trust and fracking The call is out for a rapid worldwide expansion of a new energy supply option to meet the global threats of climate change. At the same time, in a number of counties (including prominently the U.S.), a continued erosion of social trust in those who will develop and manage fracking projects is painfully evident. This presentation seeks to identify and explore the relevant issues. The long-term trend in the erosion of social trust has both structural and behavioral roots. Indeed, the trend appears to have become a central ingredient in the socialization process, as changes in the confidence and trust in a wide array of social institutions and sectors (note the historically low trust in the U.S. Congress as an example) become apparent. This suggests, as well as the work of Slovic, Renn, and other social scientists, that social trust once lost cannot be easily regained, even with highly meritorious behavior. Accordingly, decisions will need to be made under conditions of high social distrust. The scientific and social uncertainties that permeate fracking exacerbate this reality. Moreover, risks, community impacts, and local benefits vary widely from plaace to place. Societies are still early in the deployment of this energy option as an antidote to climate change. And so accumulating experience will be important in assessing and managing the risks. T4-K.2 Kasperson, RK; Clark University; rkasperson@clarku.edu Opportunities and dilemmas in managing risk uncertainty Uncertainty is an inescapable ingredient of life. Even for familiar situations--such as crossing a street--some level of uncertainty is involved. Past experience is relevant for decisions involving the future but contexts change aqnd new elements affecting risk may unexpectedly occur. It is not surprising that in a world of complex systems involving technological change, highly coupled human and natural systems, and a kaleidoscope of social and political institutions high levels of uncertainty challenge existing assessment methods and familiar decision procedures. This paper explores opportunities and dilemmas in confronting these issues. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-A.3 Kazemi, RK*; Rahaman, FR; Urban, JU; William Carter, WC; USFDA; rezakazemi@gmail.com A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) Framework for Modeling Risk in Global Drug Supply Chain To make drug supply chain safer and more secure, we need models that can realistically and comprehensively characterize the risks associated with global drug supply chain. Most prescription (Rx) and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs consumed in the U.S. are manufactured in foreign facilities. The industry imports drugs as bulk active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), bulk finished dose form (FDF) drug products for final packaging in the US, or FDF products in the final packaging for wholesale or retail marketing. It is estimated that 40 percent of finished drugs used by U.S. patients, and 80 percent of active ingredients and chemicals used in U.S. drugs are produced abroad. Globalization and underlying complexities in pharmaceutical supply chain have created opportunities for criminal actors to take advantage of the weaknesses of the supply chain and to introduce substandard drugs that would reach and harm patients. A well publicized instance of such substandard drug that entered the drug supply chain, and claimed many lives, is the case of adulterated heparin. To ensure quality and safety of drugs consumed by patients, it is crucial to ensure drug component manufacturers and finished drug product manufacturers adhere to quality standards. It’s also critical to ensure the security of the supply chain which starts from raw material manufacturers to patients. Additionally a meaningful, efficient and effective oversight on the supply chain from the regulatory agencies is required to strengthen drug supply chain safety and security. In this study a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) framework has been adapted to formally identify and assess the vulnerabilities in the global drug supply chain and model the risk of counterfeit or substandard drugs reaching to patients. P.18 Kazemi, R*; Rahaman, F; Urban, J; USFDA; rezakazemi@gmail.com A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for Modeling Risk of Adverse Events Due to the Particulate Matter in Injectables Particles in injectable medications chiefly come from two main sources, intrinsic contaminants that result from manufacturing and packaging processes and extrinsic particles that are introduced at the time of administration to patients. These particles are generally considered to be harmful and can have many shapes or types (e.g. glass, metal, rubber, lamellae, etc.) and many sizes. Many factors play a role in determining whether these particles will have imminent effect of patient’s health, whether the particulates could cause serious health problems or death, temporary health problems or no serious adverse health reaction is expected at all. Among these factors are particulate profile (e.g. type, size, etc.), amount of particulates administered to the patient, Route of administration, whether or not barriers will be effective to screen out the particulates (i.e. use of filters) as well as patient’s resistance factors. Due to the uncertainties involved in how these particles may influence risk of adverse events in patients, Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) formalism has been utilized to assess the risk of adverse events due to the injection of particulates. BBNs are probabilistic in nature and the uncertainty in assessing risk of adverse events, given the different states of all influencing factors can be explicitly expressed and modeled. Given patient’s conditions and the characteristics of the particles, the model will be able to assess the likelihoods of adverse events with their respective uncertainties. M4-G.4 Keller, C*; Sütterlin, B; Siegrist, M; ETH Zurich; ckeller@ethz.ch A comparison of spontaneous associations with nuclear power underlying its acceptance before and after the Fukushima disaster, and of associations with nuclear and solar energy resources After the nuclear accident in Fukushima, energy policies changed in some European countries. In Switzerland, for example, the government decided to phase out nuclear power in the near future and to promote and expand renewable energy resources. To better understand public acceptance of the changed energy policy, spontaneous associations with nuclear power as well as with solar power and the affective evaluations of these associations were examined. A study was conducted among Swiss residents in 2012 (N=1211), after the Fukushima disaster. Slightly fewer than half of the sample (n=561) had already participated in a study in which associations with nuclear power were assessed in 2009, before the Fukushima disaster. The present study compared the spontaneous associations with nuclear power plants between 2009 and 2012, and examined the relationship with the acceptance of nuclear power. In addition, the spontaneous associations with nuclear power were compared with associations with solar power. The affective evaluation of nuclear power was more negative in 2012 compared to 2009. However, the general pattern of associations with nuclear power underlying the acceptance of nuclear power did not change. Almost all associations with solar power were rated positively. People did not associate risk with solar power. Practical implications will be discussed. M4-I.1 Kenney, L*; Arvai, J; University of Calgary; lmkenney@ucalgary.ca Confronting risks and benefits of energy system improvements in developing communities: The case of Canada’s Northwest Territories Decisions about energy development and delivery are inherently complex: they must address the technical challenges of energy production and transmission, and because they involve and affect people; as such, these decisions must address a range of often conflicting values. Decision making processes cannot proceed without input from multiple stakeholders. Ultimately, untangling this complexity means making tradeoffs across economic, social, and environmental concerns, while accounting for risk and uncertainty related to dynamic coupled natural-human systems. In developing communities these kinds of decisions are made more challenging as a result of the unique characteristics that typify these locations: e.g., poorly developed infrastructure; limited government budgets; political systems lacking transparency; economic vulnerability; and low education levels. Moreover, the social, economic, political, and environmental systems in these areas are tightly linked; changes in one system can easily affect the others. Decisions about energy have significant consequences in terms of quality of life and, therefore, are often part of larger development agendas. A case in point is Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT), which is home to significant variations in geography, infrastructure development, economic activity, cultural traditions, and governance arrangements. Under these challenging conditions the NWT government is attempting to reform the region’s energy systems. This presentation reports the results of case study research conducted in the NWT between 2012 and 2013. We discuss the risks, challenges and benefits related to improving energy systems in developing communities. We then provide recommendations about how to structure decisions related to the energy development and delivery in the NWT so as to effectively meet a range of stakeholders’ objectives in a transparent and inclusive manner. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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