Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.143 Schlosser, PM*; Isaacs, K; Sasso, AF; Gift, JS; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; schlosser.paul@epa.gov A Probabilistic Model of U.S. Intra-Day Tap Water Exposure and Its Application in PBPK Modeling While the previously developed SHEDS model (http://www.epa.gov/heasd/research/sheds.html) provides probabilistic sampling for total daily water consumption, it does not provide information on the intra-day distribution of that ingestion – the fraction of the total consumed in any hour of the day. For chemicals such as methanol or chloroform which are rapidly absorbed, the peak blood concentration (Cmax) depends strongly on this distribution and is a determinant for key toxic effects. We analyzed 2003-2010 NHANES dietary recall data for hourly ingestion, based on total moisture (g) in each food or beverage. (While the recall diaries allowed recording of events in 15-min intervals the data appeared biased to on-the-hour records, so consumption was summed into 1-h intervals.) Besides directly consumed tap water, a subset of NHANES foods and beverages assumed to be prepared with tap water was identified, and each was assigned an assumed fraction of total moisture attributed to tap water (e.g., 50% of canned soup prepared with water). Maximum-likelihood log-normal intake distributions were then fit for each 1-h interval. An assumed ingestion rate distribution (geometric mean, GM = 1 L/h) was applied allowing consumption to occur in less than an hour. 18% of the diaries included “extended consumption” occasions (vs. “Breakfast,” “Lunch,” etc.) , assumed to be drinking from a large water bottle, coffee mug, etc., over longer periods; these observations were analyzed separately from the hourly distributions and simulated with appropriate probability. Since the length of the extended consumption events were not reported, a slower rate distribution was assumed (GM = 0.2 L/h), with a minimum time of 1 h. With simulated distributions based on the NHANES diaries, most individuals appear to consume tap water less than 3 h each day. Use of these patterns as input to a PBPK model yields mean Cmax predictions 2x or more over an idealized pattern of 6 ingestion events per day. T1-G.5 Schweizer, PJ; University of Stuttgart; pia-johanna.schweizer@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de Requirements for climate change governance A global governance approach to tackle climate change seems now more out of reach than ever. One of the reasons for this deficiency is the sheer complexity of the issue. Climate change governance has to deal with uncertain science, the complexity of international negotiations, and ambiguous ethical issues, such as sustainability and international as well as intergenerational justice. Another reason is the politics of climate change governance. Climate change governance has sparked societal controversies in almost all countries of the world and has become a global issue. Consequently, the role of social trust and the role of civil society and the media have to be seen in the context of international relations and the management of common pool resources. In this multifaceted interplay of governance obstacles, it is a challenge if not an impossible task to propose a harmonized global governance framework of climate change. The intention of this presentation is to show ways in which climate change governance can be improved by a bottom-up rather than a top-down approach. Special attention will be paid to the question of how the “hard” facts of climate change science can be enhanced by “soft” parameters such as social acceptability and ethical as well as moral issues. T2-I.2 Scott, RP*; Cullen, AC; University of Washington; ryscott5@uw.edu Applying multi-criteria decision analysis and life cycle approaches to direct engineering research regarding the selection of CZTS back-contacts for thin film solar photovoltaics Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) thin film photovoltaics are currently in the research phase as a potential method of producing electricity for $0.50 per watt at terawatt scales of production using abundant earth materials. Many uncertainties have arisen in terms of scalable manufacturing methods, device materials, and social and economic feasibility. One area of uncertainty in the quest to scale up production results from current use of molybdenum as a back-contact material, due to concerns about price volatility. However, research on potential substitution materials, including graphite, graphene, and molybdenum on steel, is still in the earliest stages. Since the broader goals of photovoltaics involve producing energy in a manner that protects both the environment and human health, developing the new back contact material without first considering the long-term price feasibility and impacts to health and environment could derail the future commercial viability of the thin film technology. This case provides an empirically based analysis of using decision tools to inform research directions in emerging technology so as to avoid negative consequences. First proposed by Linkov et al (2007), a combined approach of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, Risk Assessment, and Life Cycle Assessment allows for the application of available risk assessment and life cycle data within a larger decision framework. This work assesses the limitations of MCDA-RA-LCA while providing valuable decision analytic information to CZTS engineers. For the case of CZTS back contact selection, MCDA is used to assess the various material options with the goal of maximizing future device utility through optimizing across cost, environment, and health metrics. Application of utility theory and the use of Monte-Carlo simulation to partition significant sources of uncertainty allows the selection of materials to incorporate social responsibility and risk minimization alongside future technical promise. T2-F.1 Sellke, P*; Amlot, R; Rogers, B; Pearce, J; Rubin, J; Mowbray, F; Dialogik non-profit institute; sellke@dialogik-expert.de Public Information Responses After Terrorist Events The threat western societies face through terrorist attacks became much more apparent than ever before through the attacks of 9/11 (New York and Washington 2001), 11-M (Madrid, March 11, 2004) and 7/7 (London, July 7, 2005). The new quality of those attacks comprised the deliberate attempt to cause as many fatalities as possible and to disrupt economic and social life. Not least the ruthlessness and sophistication of the attacks carried out made the use of radiological or biological substances for attacks conceivable, if not likely. How the public reacts to biological or radiological terrorism will help to determine how extensive the attack's medical, economic and social impacts are. Yet our understanding of what the public is likely to do in case of a radiological and/or biological attack is limited. Will they spontaneously evacuate affected areas? Are they willing to attend mass treatment centers? Will unaffected people demand treatment and monitoring? Will people avoid affected areas even after clean-up operations have been completed? As yet, we do not know. While emergency plans and simulations dealing with these scenarios assume a relatively compliant public with easily understood behaviors, evidence from previous incidents suggests that the reality may be different. As such, a first step to preparing better plans to protect the public is to identify actions they intend to take in the event of one of these scenarios occurring, and to assess how prevalent such intentions are in society. In this presentation results from a two-year reseach project will be presented, adressing the questions outlined above and comparing them between Germany and the United Kingdom. The presentation will emphasize the question of whether behavioral intentions of the public can be influenced by tailored emergency communication and the satisfaction of public’s information needs and what possible differences in the response to terrorist attacks exist between Germany and the United Kingdom. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-J.4 Sertkaya, A*; Jessup, A; Wong, H; Eastern Research Group; HHS Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Aylin.sertkaya@erg.com Modeling Incentives for the Development of New Antibacterial Drugs We perform an economic analysis of possible incentives for the development of new antibacterial drugs for 6 different indications, including acute bacterial otitis media (ABOM), acute skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI), community acquired pneumonia (CABP), complicated intra-abdominal Infections (CIAI), complicated urinary tract infections (CUTI), and hospital acquired bacterial pneumonia (HABP). To assess the current state of investment in antibacterial research and development (R&D) for areas of unmet medical need, we develop an economic model to calculate the expected net present value (ENPV) for prospective new drugs for each indication under various market conditions. The model is based on a multi-stage decision tree framework, in which there are a series of decision nodes. At each node there is an expected probability of success and marginal expected NPV. The ENPV uses the private opportunity cost of capital (also referred to as the private rate of discount) to account for changes in the value of money over time. Using the model, we then examine different types of incentives designed to stimulate antibacterial drug development. The incentive analysis involve solving for the level of each type of incentive to meet a set private ENPV target by indication using the decision-tree model developed. W4-H.1 Severtson, DJ; University of Wisconsin-Madison; djsevert@wisc.edu How do maps influence perceived accuracy and validity and how do these perceptions influence risk beliefs? It is important to convey the uncertainty of modeled risk estimates depicted on maps. Findings from an earlier study indicated how 3 map features selected to depict the uncertainty of estimated cancer risk from air pollution influenced beliefs about risk that are predictive of decisions and the ambiguity of these beliefs. Viewers’ perceptions of the validity and accuracy of the mapped information may have a role in explaining how mapped risk influences risk beliefs and ambiguity. This study used previously unanalyzed data to assess how map features influenced (a) perceived accuracy and validity of the mapped information and (b) how these perceptions influenced risk beliefs and the ambiguity of risk beliefs. The full factorial 2 x 2 x 2 x 4 study used 32 maps that varied by the 3 features at 4 risk levels. Map features (uncertain vs certain) were: number of colors (1 vs 3), appearance of map contours (unfocused vs focused), and how risk was expressed in the legend (verbal and relative with no safety benchmark vs numeric natural frequencies with a safety benchmark). Each study map depicted an assigned “You live here” location within 1 of the 4 risk level areas. Maps were grouped into 8 blocks. Undergraduate participants (n=826), randomly assigned to a block of 4 maps, answered survey items assessing beliefs and ambiguity for each map and perceived accuracy and validity for each of the first two maps. Structural equation modeling was used to assess proposed relationships controlling for prior risk beliefs and ambiguity, perceived numeracy, and sex. Findings indicate perceptions of accuracy and validity are differentially influenced by map features and these perceptions differentially influence outcomes of beliefs and ambiguity. Numeracy moderated some of these relationships. Some perceptions mediated the influence of map features on outcomes, suggesting perceived trust and validity may have important roles in explaining how maps influence decisions. T1-E.1 Shao, K*; Gift, JS; NCEA, USEPA; shao.kan@epa.gov The importance of within dose-group variance in BMD analyses for continuous response data Continuous data (e.g., body weight, relative liver weight) have been widely used for benchmark dose analysis (Crump 1984) in health risk assessments. The BMD estimation method for continuous data published in the literature (Crump 1995, Slob 2002) and used by the US EPA’s BMD software (USEPA BMDS 2013) essentially models continuous responses at each dose level as a certain distribution (e.g., normal distribution or log-normal distribution). However, the default method employed by regulatory agencies (USEPA BMDS 2013, European Food Safety Authority 2009) for BMD calculation defines the benchmark response (BMR) as a certain change relative to the mean response at background dose level. By this definition, the BMD calculation is based solely on the central tendency, which is just a part of the information of the response distribution. As EPA and other organizations move towards unifying the approaches for cancer and non-cancer dose-response assessment and defining risk-specific reference doses as suggested by the NAS (NRC 2009), a full consideration of the response distribution rather than just the mean value will play a more and more important role in dose-response analysis. This can be done by accounting for within dose-group variance using methods such as the “Hybrid” approach (Crump 1995). This study focuses on demonstrating the importance of considering within dose-group variance in BMD estimation for continuous data through a number of examples. T1-J.1 Shapiro, S*; Carrigan, C; Carrigan - George Washington University, Shapiro -- Rutgers University; stuartsh@rutgers.edu What’s Wrong with the Back of the Envelope? A Call for Simple (and Timely) Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost-benefit analysis has been a part of the regulatory process for more than three decades. Over this period, it has been the subject of criticism across the ideological spectrum. Solutions to the perceived ineffectiveness of cost-benefit analysis tend toward one of two extremes. Opponents of analysis, not surprisingly, want to see it eliminated. Supporters of analysis often call for “deeper and wider cost-benefit analysis” We argue that cost-benefit analysis has evolved into a complex tool that does little to inform decisions on regulatory policy. Analyses either omit consideration of meaningful alternatives or are so detailed that they become practically indecipherable. And in either case they are often completed after a policy alternative is selected. Adding complexity or judicial review may eliminate the naive studies but will also increase incentives for agencies to make them even more opaque. Yet, eliminating analysis abandons all hope that an analytical perspective can inform critical policy decisions. We believe that a noticeably simpler analysis conducted much earlier in the regulatory process can play a critical role in regulatory decisions. Such an analysis would have to be completed well before a proposed rule and be subject to public comment. However, to ensure that it does not cripple the regulatory process, the examination could eschew the monetization and complex quantification that bedevils most current regulatory impact analyses. The more timely and modest analysis would be required to detail several policy alternatives being considered by the agency. The agency would list the likely benefits for each alternative in terms of gains to public health or welfare and be required to do the same with the probable costs. Public and political overseers would then be in a position to provide meaningful feedback before the agency has already decided on its course of action. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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