Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
P.143 Schlosser, PM*; Isaacs, K; Sasso, AF; Gift, JS; U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency; schlosser.paul@epa.gov
A Probabilistic Model of U.S. Intra-Day Tap Water
Exposure and Its Application in PBPK Modeling
While the previously developed SHEDS model
(http://www.epa.gov/heasd/research/sheds.html) provides
probabilistic sampling for total daily water consumption, it does
not provide information on the intra-day distribution of that
ingestion – the fraction of the total consumed in any hour of the
day. For chemicals such as methanol or chloroform which are
rapidly absorbed, the peak blood concentration (Cmax) depends
strongly on this distribution and is a determinant for key toxic
effects. We analyzed 2003-2010 NHANES dietary recall data for
hourly ingestion, based on total moisture (g) in each food or
beverage. (While the recall diaries allowed recording of events
in 15-min intervals the data appeared biased to on-the-hour
records, so consumption was summed into 1-h intervals.)
Besides directly consumed tap water, a subset of NHANES
foods and beverages assumed to be prepared with tap water
was identified, and each was assigned an assumed fraction of
total moisture attributed to tap water (e.g., 50% of canned soup
prepared with water). Maximum-likelihood log-normal intake
distributions were then fit for each 1-h interval. An assumed
ingestion rate distribution (geometric mean, GM = 1 L/h) was
applied allowing consumption to occur in less than an hour.
18% of the diaries included “extended consumption” occasions
(vs. “Breakfast,” “Lunch,” etc.) , assumed to be drinking from a
large water bottle, coffee mug, etc., over longer periods; these
observations were analyzed separately from the hourly
distributions and simulated with appropriate probability. Since
the length of the extended consumption events were not
reported, a slower rate distribution was assumed (GM = 0.2
L/h), with a minimum time of 1 h. With simulated distributions
based on the NHANES diaries, most individuals appear to
consume tap water less than 3 h each day. Use of these
patterns as input to a PBPK model yields mean Cmax
predictions 2x or more over an idealized pattern of 6 ingestion
events per day.
T1-G.5 Schweizer, PJ; University of Stuttgart;
pia-johanna.schweizer@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de
Requirements for climate change governance
A global governance approach to tackle climate change seems
now more out of reach than ever. One of the reasons for this
deficiency is the sheer complexity of the issue. Climate change
governance has to deal with uncertain science, the complexity
of international negotiations, and ambiguous ethical issues,
such as sustainability and international as well as
intergenerational justice. Another reason is the politics of
climate change governance. Climate change governance has
sparked societal controversies in almost all countries of the
world and has become a global issue. Consequently, the role of
social trust and the role of civil society and the media have to
be seen in the context of international relations and the
management of common pool resources. In this multifaceted
interplay of governance obstacles, it is a challenge if not an
impossible task to propose a harmonized global governance
framework of climate change. The intention of this presentation
is to show ways in which climate change governance can be
improved by a bottom-up rather than a top-down approach.
Special attention will be paid to the question of how the “hard”
facts of climate change science can be enhanced by “soft”
parameters such as social acceptability and ethical as well as
moral issues.
T2-I.2 Scott, RP*; Cullen, AC; University of Washington;
ryscott5@uw.edu
Applying multi-criteria decision analysis and life cycle
approaches to direct engineering research regarding the
selection of CZTS back-contacts for thin film solar
photovoltaics
Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) thin film photovoltaics are currently in the
research phase as a potential method of producing electricity
for $0.50 per watt at terawatt scales of production using
abundant earth materials. Many uncertainties have arisen in
terms of scalable manufacturing methods, device materials, and
social and economic feasibility. One area of uncertainty in the
quest to scale up production results from current use of
molybdenum as a back-contact material, due to concerns about
price volatility. However, research on potential substitution
materials, including graphite, graphene, and molybdenum on
steel, is still in the earliest stages. Since the broader goals of
photovoltaics involve producing energy in a manner that
protects both the environment and human health, developing
the new back contact material without first considering the
long-term price feasibility and impacts to health and
environment could derail the future commercial viability of the
thin film technology. This case provides an empirically based
analysis of using decision tools to inform research directions in
emerging technology so as to avoid negative consequences.
First proposed by Linkov et al (2007), a combined approach of
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, Risk Assessment, and Life
Cycle Assessment allows for the application of available risk
assessment and life cycle data within a larger decision
framework. This work assesses the limitations of MCDA-RA-LCA
while providing valuable decision analytic information to CZTS
engineers. For the case of CZTS back contact selection, MCDA
is used to assess the various material options with the goal of
maximizing future device utility through optimizing across cost,
environment, and health metrics. Application of utility theory
and the use of Monte-Carlo simulation to partition significant
sources of uncertainty allows the selection of materials to
incorporate social responsibility and risk minimization
alongside future technical promise.
T2-F.1 Sellke, P*; Amlot, R; Rogers, B; Pearce, J; Rubin, J;
Mowbray, F; Dialogik non-profit institute;
sellke@dialogik-expert.de
Public Information Responses After Terrorist Events
The threat western societies face through terrorist attacks
became much more apparent than ever before through the
attacks of 9/11 (New York and Washington 2001), 11-M
(Madrid, March 11, 2004) and 7/7 (London, July 7, 2005). The
new quality of those attacks comprised the deliberate attempt
to cause as many fatalities as possible and to disrupt economic
and social life. Not least the ruthlessness and sophistication of
the attacks carried out made the use of radiological or
biological substances for attacks conceivable, if not likely. How
the public reacts to biological or radiological terrorism will help
to determine how extensive the attack's medical, economic and
social impacts are. Yet our understanding of what the public is
likely to do in case of a radiological and/or biological attack is
limited. Will they spontaneously evacuate affected areas? Are
they willing to attend mass treatment centers? Will unaffected
people demand treatment and monitoring? Will people avoid
affected areas even after clean-up operations have been
completed? As yet, we do not know. While emergency plans and
simulations dealing with these scenarios assume a relatively
compliant public with easily understood behaviors, evidence
from previous incidents suggests that the reality may be
different. As such, a first step to preparing better plans to
protect the public is to identify actions they intend to take in
the event of one of these scenarios occurring, and to assess
how prevalent such intentions are in society. In this
presentation results from a two-year reseach project will be
presented, adressing the questions outlined above and
comparing them between Germany and the United Kingdom.
The presentation will emphasize the question of whether
behavioral intentions of the public can be influenced by tailored
emergency communication and the satisfaction of public’s
information needs and what possible differences in the
response to terrorist attacks exist between Germany and the
United Kingdom.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD