Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-G.1 Yang, ZJ; Rickard, LN*; Seo, M; Harrison, T; University at Buffalo, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, University at Albany; zyang5@buffalo.edu Extending RISP: From message elaboration to support for climate change mitigation policy This study extends Griffin, Dunwoody, and Neuwirth’s (1999) risk information seeking and processing model (RISP) to examine how message elaboration influences individuals’ support for climate change mitigation policy. Data were collected from 572 undergraduates at two large research universities in New York State in Spring 2013. All key measures were adopted from previous research and achieved excellent reliability. Results from structural equation modeling (χ2(741) = 1570.95, p < .001, RMSEA = .048, CFI = .98, GFI = .86, NNFI = .98) indicate that attitude toward climate change information (β = .25, p < .01) and systematic processing of climate change information were positively related to support for climate change mitigation policy (β = .28, p < .01), whereas heuristic processing was not significantly related to policy support. Ecocentric environmental attitude, negative affect, and attitude toward climate change information were significant predictors of systematic processing, whereas in addition to these variables, limited capacity to understand climate change information was also positively related to heuristic processing. Contrary to past research, although informational subjective norms were positively related to perceived knowledge about climate change, they were not significantly related to either message elaboration or support for climate change mitigation policy. Contributing to theory development, this study proposes a new set of measures of information processing that appear superior to existing scales. The direct and indirect relationships illustrated in the model also help to expand the utility of the RISP model to account for policy support. From an applied perspective, this study suggests important pathways to communicate about climate change to encourage greater message elaboration, which might lead to increased public support for climate change mitigation policies. T3-H.1 Yaroschak, PJ; Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (I&E); Paul.Yaroschak@osd.mil There's More Than One Type of Risk for Chemicals and Materials in DoD The Department of Defense (DoD) uses a wide variety of chemicals and materials to perform its mission. Many of these are traditional chemicals and materials while some are new compounds or materials in the development stages. In both cases, some of these chemicals and materials meet DoD’s definition of an Emerging Contaminant (EC). ECs have no existing peer-reviewed toxicity values or the human health science is evolving and existing regulatory standards are being re-evaluated. The DoD’s Science & Technology Directorate has a dual role. In one role, it seeks to research, test, verify, and integrate more sustainable chemicals into DoD systems and industrial processes. Sustainable chemicals and materials are those that: - Have less impacts on human health and the environment - Have an adequate supply into the future - Often can be recovered and re-used Another role is to proactively manage risks related to ECs. There are a number of types of risks including human health, environmental, cost escalation, and material unavailability. This presentation will provide an introduction and context for the presentations to follow in this session. It will examine the different types of chemical/material risks facing DoD, the need for relative risk analysis, and the challenges in integrating sustainable chemicals into DoD. Finally, it will introduce the concept of a Sustainability Analysis which consists of Life Cycle Assessment and Life Cycle Costing. W4-C.2 Yemelyanov, AM; GSW State University; alexander.yemelyanov@gsw.edu Determining risk-related patterns in human operator error analysis Empirical databases on accident reports in safety-critical systems (air traffic, nuclear reactors, power utilities, etc.) do not really contain causes on which safety recommendations can be made, but rather brief descriptions of the accident. This is especially true for accident reports related to human operator errors, which are more difficult to diagnose and investigate. As a result, the existing databases are suitable mostly for statistical analysis of predetermined error taxonomy categories rather than for the analysis of underlying causal factors - PSFs. However, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) uses factor analysis to identify error contexts (specific PSF combinations that together produce an increased probability of human error or uses the Bayesian Belief Network to identify patterns of interactions among PSFs. The models in which they are integrated are not fully adequate and associated enough with erroneous actions. The presented paper proposes a method of error modeling in which the PSFs are considered to be coherent on all stages of the erroneous action: from the perception of a problem to the motivation for solving it, to the implementation of the decision. The method provides analysis of underlying factors by using logical, decision-making, and classification algorithms and helps to discover the error associated patterns. The specific feature of the suggested approach is that it presents the opportunity to logically analyze errors and their underlying factors in the process of collecting data on them, not by drawing conclusions from the investigation reports as the traditional approach. Employing data from various accident databases (such as NTSB, ASN Safety Database, etc.), the paper provides an analysis of accidents related to human error and demonstrates how the proposed method allows to evaluate risk-related patterns of human errors and classify them based on the risk type. Particular attention is given to the analysis of risks, resulting from the human operator’s purposefully jeopardizing actions. W2-J.2 Yemshanov, D.*; Koch, F.H.; Lu, B.; Haack, R.A.; 1,3: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, ON; 2: USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, NC; 4: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, East Lansing, MI ; dyemshan@nrcan.gc.ca PUTTING EGGS IN DIFFERENT BASKETS: DIVERSIFICATION IN EARLY PLANNING OF INVASIVE SPECIES SURVEILLANCE PRORAMS In this study we demonstrate how the notions of uncertainty and diversification can be used in assessing risks of invasive species and allocating resources for surveillance campaigns. The new methodology builds upon the concepts from portfolio allocation theory and incorporates uncertainty, which is described by a plausible distribution of invasive species spread scenarios. We consider the problem of assessing risk of invasive species incursions and planning a surveillance campaign in a geographically diverse area when knowledge about the invader is uncertain. The survey objective is conceptualized as finding the optimal allocation of surveillance resources among multiple territorial subdivisions that simultaneously maximizes the net information gain about the invasive organism and the diversification of resources allocated to individual survey regions. We find the optimal resource allocation via an application of a portfolio valuation framework, where the objective is to find the optimal allocation of investments among multiple assets with uncertain returns in a portfolio that both maximizes the net returns and, by minimizing the intra-portfolio correlation and covariance, diversifies the investments to protect against risk and volatility. We illustrate the approach with a case study that applies a network-centric spatial transmission model to assess the risk that campgrounds will receive invasive pests with infested firewood that may be carried by campers. The methodology provides a tractable approach for addressing the vexing issue of diversification in decision-making and surveillance planning under uncertainty. It helps produce surveillance resource allocations that satisfy risk-averse decision-making perceptions, thus providing a strategy for dealing with the typically severe uncertainty in model-based assessments of invasive species risk. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W2-J.3 Yoe, CE; Notre Dame of Maryland University; cyoe1@verizon.net Assessing and Managing ANS Risk in Great Lakes and MIssissippi River The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was directed by Congress to conduct a study on the range of options and technologies available to “prevent” the transfer of aquatic nuisance species between the Mississippi River and Great Lakes basins, via aquatic pathways. Starting with 254 ANS organisms, a qualitative screening process identified 39 organisms of potential concern. A qualitative risk assessment model was developed, which subsequently assessed 12 of these ANS to be medium or high risk species threatening the five pathways in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS). An additional 18 pathways were identified along the remainder of the shared watershed boundary (Focus Area 2), but were not subjected to the full, detailed qualitative risk assessment process. Over 90 individual nonstructural and technological measures for managing the risk were identified and used to develop alternatives to manage the risks over a series of varying time frames. Alternatives including hydrologic separation, application of technologies, and non-structural best-management practices were developed to reduce the risk of transfer of the identified species in the CAWS to the maximum extent possible. P.101 Yong, AG*; Lemyre, L; Pinsent, C; Krewski, D; University of Ottawa; ayong089@uottawa.ca Natural disaster cognitive appraisals and disaster preparedness in immigrants and native-born in the Canadian context: A need for psychosocial considerations In Canada, the immigrant population has been identified as a higher-risk population in the context of emergencies. Past research shows that immigrants experience more negative consequences post-disasters compared to the native-born. Thus, it is important to induce emergency preparedness within this population long before the event. Immigrants may have different risk perceptions due to socio-contextual factors. Thus, psychosocial considerations are critical in order to better target risk communication and management for this population. Yet, little is documented about the risk mental models of immigrants. In an attempt to better understand the nature of the perceptions of natural disasters in immigrants of Canada and its relation to preparedness, data from a representative national survey of the Canadian public (n = 3263) were analyzed. This study examined natural disaster cognitive appraisals (perceived risk, likelihood, knowledge, mastery, complexity and uncertainty) between Canadian-born and immigrants, and how these factors predicted preparedness behaviours. Results showed that while there were no significant differences in cognitive appraisals between Canadian-born and immigrants, there were significant differences in how these factors predicted uptake of preparedness behaviours. For example, while perceived mastery positively predicted actual preparedness for both immigrants and Canadian-born, perceived knowledge positively predicted actual preparedness for Canadian-born, but not immigrants. Also, intention to comply with recommendations to evacuate was predicted differentially for Canadian-born versus immigrants. Results suggest that there may be socio-contextual nuances in the pathways that can explain the differences in uptake of preparedness. Therefore, psychosocial considerations for immigrants need to be incorporated in risk communication and management aiming at better preparedness and response. Theoretical and practical implications will be discussed. P.128 Yong Jin, LEE*; Ji Yeon, YANG; Geon Woo, LEE; Dong Chun, SHIN; Yonsei University; yjlee75@yuhs.ac Application of socio-economic analysis for restriction and authorization of chemical in Korea Industrial chemicals are essential to modern society and bring benefits in the form of improved health, food supply, goods, general lifestyle and well-being. Some chemicals, if they enter the environment, can cause problems for human health and ecosystems and it is important to identify the potential hazardous endpoints, quantify the risk that genuine harm will occur and develop strategies to mitigate that risk. Socio-economic analysis (SEA) weighs the costs of any restrictions on the production and use of chemicals against the benefits to human health and the environment. The reasons why industry needs to understand the principles and practices of socio-economic analysis are: (l) to carry out, where appropriate, a SEA as an argument for authorisation, and (2) to be able to contribute as stakeholders in socio-economic discussions with regulatory authorities when a SEA is used as a basis for justifying restrictions. In this study, we are constructing and calculating social benefit and cost using the data of the value of a statistical life (VSL), cost of illness (COI), and results of cost evaluation. The results of VSL, COI are calculated by the adverse effects of carcinogen and non-carcinogen and the obtained data from data base of healthcare expenditures and several costs about illness, and questionnaires about income, expenditures, quality of life, and so on. VSL reflects the aggregation of individuals' willingness to pay for fatal risk reduction and therefore the economic value to society to reduce the statistical incidence of premature death in the population by one. The result of VSL estimated by cancer deaths is calculated US$ 73.6 million(2013) through contingent valuation methods. In this study, appropriate authorization and restriction of chemical substances will suggest through the evaluation of the cost with the results calculated by the VSL and COI. W3-H.3 Yu, KS*; Tan, RR; Santos, JR; De La Salle University / The George Washington University; krista.yu@dlsu.edu.ph Managing Disaster Risk Strategies in Economic Systems Based on Sectoral Vulnerability Analysis Natural disasters pose significant threats of disruption to economic systems. These disruptions lead to either loss of final demand, loss of supply of goods or both. The interdependence among the various sectors in a disrupted regional economy creates an amplified effect on the initial impact of such extreme events, which could induce additional vulnerability. This paper develops an extension to the IIM in the form of a vulnerability index, which can provide policy makers with a tool to measure the efficiency of post-disaster risk management strategies, considering economic impact, diversity and sector size as the determinants of sector vulnerability. The vulnerability index captures the impact of investments to various sectors in times of disaster in order to yield the maximum returns to the entire economy. This paper discusses seven scenarios that a policy maker may consider (1) preference on economic impact only, (2) preference for diversity of reach only, (3) preference on sector size only, (4) equal preference for all components, (5) priority preference for economic impact and diversity but none for sector size, (6) priority preference for economic impact and sector size but none for diversity, and (7) priority preference for diversity and sector size but none for economic impact. Varied results are generated across each scenario depending on the preference structure of the policy maker with respect to the vulnerability index components. Nevertheless, some sectors are less sensitive to such preference variations and may persist on their level of priority, independent of the scenario. Applying these to the Philippines, we find that the trade sector is consistently a high priority sector, while the government services sector tends to be a low priority sector. The manufacturing and transportation sectors are top priority sectors. However, disregarding sector size as part of the policy maker’s preference criteria reduces the priority level of the two sectors. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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