Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M3-B.1 Goodman, JE*; Rhomberg, LR; Gradient; jgoodman@gradientcorp.com Bradford Hill Viewpoints and Hypothesis-Based Weight of Evidence In a seminal 1965 paper, Sir Austin Bradford Hill identified nine factors that suggest causation, particularly when evaluating epidemiology data: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and analogy. These "viewpoints" were presented as aids for thinking through the evidence for causality – in more current terms, as guidance for evaluating the weight of evidence. They were not intended as "criteria" – the term most often used to describe them today. Hill said: "What [my nine viewpoints] can do, with greater or lesser strength, is to help us make up our minds on the fundamental question – is there any other way of explaining the set of facts before us, is there any other answer equally, or more, likely than cause and effect?" That is, Hill called for an evaluation of how well patterns among the whole "set of facts before us" can be accounted for. The degree of credence one should place in the causal role of a substance in question is a function of how much more likely it would be for the set of observations to occur if the substance were causal vs. if it were not. This is the guiding principle behind the Hypothesis-Based Weight-of-Evidence (HBWoE) approach. We will describe this approach, and the role of Bradford Hill's viewpoints in it, for evaluating epidemiology data. We will also describe how recently proposed "extended Hill criteria" can be used to conduct an HBWoE evaluation of epidemiology, toxicology, mechanistic, and other kinds of data in an integrated fashion. T2-A.3 Goodman, JE*; Sax, SN; Thakali, S; Beyer, L; Gradient; jgoodman@gradientcorp.com Rethinking Meta-analysis: Applications for Air Pollution Data and Beyond A meta-analysis is a type of systematic review that can be a powerful tool for integrating the results of individual studies. A variety of meta-analysis applications can be illustrated by evaluations that have been or could be conducted in the context of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) mandated by the Clean Air Act. In its NAAQS evaluations, US EPA reviews data from different disciplines, including epidemiology, toxicology, atmospheric science, and exposure science. US EPA and others have used meta-analyses to some degree, particularly for epidemiology and controlled human exposure data, but there are further opportunities to use this methodology in air pollution research. We will discuss the utility of meta-analyses to integrate results from several individual studies, with a focus on determining novel applications of the methodology. More specifically, we will discuss the strengths and limitations of conducting meta-analyses and consider whether there may be opportunities, such as for toxicology and mechanistic data, where meta-analyses have not been widely used historically to evaluate associations. Although our focus is on air pollution evaluations, we will demonstrate when and with what kinds of data meta-analyses can be useful across a variety of disciplines and provide strategies for defining sets of studies to evaluate. We will also discuss how the results of separate meta-analyses can be brought together to address a larger question, where different kinds of data need to be brought to bear. W4-A.3 Goodman, JE*; Prueitt, RL; Sax, SN; Bailey, LA; Rhomberg, LR; Gradient; jgoodman@gradientcorp.com Incorporation of weight-of-evidence best practices in the National Ambient Air Quality Standards review process The National Academy of Sciences Formaldehyde Review Panel's report called on the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to undertake a program to develop a transparent and defensible methodology for weight-of-evidence (WoE) assessments. The report contains a proposed "roadmap" for reform and improvement of the risk assessment process. We followed the recommendation of the NAS roadmap and conducted a survey to evaluate best practices for WoE analyses based on almost 50 frameworks, including the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Causal Framework, to come to insights about their methods, rationales, utility, and limitations. We found that the NAAQS WoE framework has many important features that are necessary for a balanced WoE evaluation. However, the framework needs to be more explicit in some cases, and it is missing some important features. Because of this, it has not been applied consistently in past evaluations of causality, and this has led to biased conclusions regarding causation, as we demonstrate with several ozone examples. We propose specific changes to the EPA NAAQS Causal Framework so that it is consistent with WoE best practices. The full and consistent application of this revised framework will ensure that future assessments of the potential health effects of criteria air pollutants will be thorough, transparent, and scientifically sound. W3-C.2 Greco, SL*; Belova, A; Huang, J; Ghio, C; Abt Associates; sue_greco@abtassoc.com A global calculator for estimating the benefits of urban fine particulate matter reductions Data that can inform human health benefits assessments in developing countries are limited. We adapted existing benefits frameworks in order to readily calculate the benefits resulting from projects that reduce air pollution in select urban areas worldwide (e.g., mass transit) when data are limited. These screening-level calculations could be used to promote or to assist the allocation of resources for such projects. Our calculator estimates the monetized benefits of reductions in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions in three steps by estimating: (1) the reduction in an urban area’s ambient PM2.5 concentration resulting from the project, (2) the avoidance of premature mortality in the area, and (3) the economic value of this avoided mortality. The reduction in ambient PM2.5 concentrations is estimated from a specified change in PM2.5 emissions using city-specific intake fractions and 2010 urban population estimates. The avoided cases of PM2.5-induced premature mortality are estimated from concentration-response functions that are based on U.S. populations and adjusted for local ambient PM2.5 levels and adult mortality rates. The value of the avoided mortality in locations other than the U.S. is estimated using a benefits transfer method that adjusts the U.S. value of a statistical life estimate for differences in per capita income (at purchasing power parity) and assumes that mortality risk reductions are a luxury good in developing countries. We illustrate the impact of a 1 metric ton reduction in PM2.5 emissions in 2010 for the 43 cities currently included in the calculator. The median number of premature deaths avoided over a 20 year period was 0.3 deaths (range: 0.02-2). The associated median present value benefit (using a 3% discount rate) was $0.6 million (range: $0.01-$5) in 2010 U.S. dollars. The authors plan to discuss the factors influencing these results as well as expand the calculator to include many more cities. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T1-C.4 Greenberg , MR; Rutgers University ; mrg@rci.rutgers.edu Predicting Individual Risk-Reducing Behaviors Before, During and After Major Hazard Events Much of the literature about major hazard events separates pre-event preparedness from during event behaviors. The paper proposes and tests life-cycle disaster event hypotheses using data collected by the author four months after Superstorm Sandy struck New Jersey on October 29, 2013. The author first tests the ability to predict individual preparedness, and then the expectation that that more preparedness leads to more proactive behaviors during and shortly after events. The author uses previous experiences with disasters, flashbulb memories of previous events, and other respondent attributes to predict preparedness. Then the author examines the relationship between preparedness and behaviors during and shortly after events. Of particular interest is age and pre-existing health as factors that lead some respondents to be victims of events, whereas others are aids not victims, and some are both victims and aids. The life-cycle perspective described and tested here is notably different from much of the medical literature that does not view an event as a life cycle. A policy implication that follows is that communities contain a cadre of individuals who are part of community support groups and these active respondents are critical players before, during and after events due to their preparedness and practiced ability to respond to events rather than be victims of them. W2-E.1 Greene, CW*; Wilkes, C; Koontz, M; Shubat, PJ; Minnesota Department of Health; Versar, Inc.; christopher.greene@state.mn.us Computer-based exposure modeling to support drinking water guidance The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) develops health-based guidance values for contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in drinking water. To account for non-drinking water exposures, MDH uses a chemical-specific Relative Source Contribution (RSC) factor to allocate only a fraction of the toxicological reference dose to drinking water exposure. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, pesticides, and other CECs found in drinking water sources have complicated exposure profiles that may include ubiquitous exposure at low levels, deliberate self-exposure, high exposures to infants and children, and exposures approaching the reference dose. CEC-specific data to quantify these exposures and accurately understand cumulative and relative risks are not readily available and, until now, MDH has relied on default assumptions based on U.S. EPA guidance. Working with a contractor, MDH explored the potential for using computer models to improve upon the default approach by estimating multipathway, multiroute exposures. We have identified the key media and exposure routes of concern, evaluated numerous models that cover these key media and routes, and developed a set of preferred models based on the model’s fitness to meet our exposure evaluation needs, its strength in representing actual physical/chemical processes, its input demands, and its user friendliness. The preferred models include EPA’s Exposure and Fate Assessment Screening Tool (E-FAST) and Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) model, the California Population Indoor Exposure Model (CPIEM), and the Total Exposure Model (TEM). We developed a set of procedures to apply these models to the problem of estimating RSC values for CECs. The procedures were evaluated using a test group of six CECs that cover a range of exposure pathways and routes. Beyond estimation of the RSC, the modeling process may also be of use to risk managers seeking to target resources towards reducing total exposures. T4-D.2 Grieger, KD*; Laurent, A; Miseljic, M; Christensen, F; Baun, A; Olsen, SI; RTI International, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), COWI A/S; kgrieger@rti.org Complementary use of life cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: Lessons learned from chemicals? Successful strategies to handle the potential health and environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) often rely upon the well-established frameworks of life cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA). However, current research and specific guidance on how to actually apply these two frameworks are still very much under development. Through an in-depth review, this study evaluates how research efforts have applied LCA and RA together for ENM with a particular emphasis on past “lessons learned” from applying these frameworks to chemicals. Among other results, it appears that current scientific research efforts have taken into account some key lessons learned from past experiences with chemicals at the same time that many key challenges remain to applying these frameworks to ENM. In that setting, two main proposed approaches to use LCA and RA together for ENM are identified: i) LC-based RA, similar to traditional RA applied in a life cycle perspective, and ii) RA-complemented LCA, similar to conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life cycle steps. This study finds that these two approaches for using LCA and RA together for ENM are similar to those made for chemicals, and hence, there does not appear to be much progress made specifically for ENM. We therefore provide specific recommendations for applying LCA and RA to ENM, for which the need to establish proper dose metrics within both methods is identified as an important requirement. P.150 Guan, P*; Shan, X; He, F; Zhuang, J; University at Buffalo, SUNY; peiqiugu@buffalo.edu Incentives in Government Provision of Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Relief The goal of this project is to help provide a solid foundation for motivating more comprehensive ways to assess the risk tradeoffs in multi-stakeholder disaster management and resource allocation. This will be accomplished by taking advantage of theoretical decision frameworks such as game theory and prospect theory, and will use robust optimization techniques to address the uncertainty that surrounds disasters. This project will address under-studied questions such as: (a) How should governments and private sectors balance between the funding for emergency preparedness and the funding for disaster relief, when they are uncertain about the disaster location and consequences? (b) How should governments distribute incentives to reduce vulnerability to disasters? and (c) How should decision makers balance equity, efficiency, and effectiveness when preparing for and responding to disasters? As a 2012 National Research Council report states, "there is currently no comprehensive framework to guide private-public collaboration focused on disaster preparedness, response, and recovery." If successful, this project will help to address this issue by providing insights, practical guidelines, and decision support tools to help save lives and property in the face of disasters. This research will engage many graduate, undergraduate, and high school students, including those from under-represented groups. The models, results, and insight gained will be shared with international, federal, and local representatives through seminars, conferences, publication, media coverage, and websites. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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