Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M2-F.3 Kiker, GA*; Linhoss, A; Munoz-Carpena, R; Frank, K; Fischer, R; Linkov, I; University of Florida, Mississippi State University, US Army Corps of Engineers; gkiker@ufl.edu Florida, sea level rise and decision analysis: choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea Climate change (through sea-level rise and altered weather patterns) is expected to significantly alter low-lying coastal and intertidal areas. The State of Florida has significant coastal lands that serve as an economic engine for growth as well as a refuge for ecological communities. Decisions concerning sea level rise present significant challenges at both regional and local scales for adapting to potentially adverse effects. This research effort presents two examples of multi-criteria decision analysis applied to coastal Florida areas at regional and local scales using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to simulate potential land cover changes under a variety of scenarios. At a Florida Gulf Coast scale, we link SLAMM simulations with a habitat suitability model (Maxent) and a metapopulation model (RAMAS-GIS) to simulate decision alternatives to diminish adverse effects of sea-level rise on Snowy Plover populations. At a more local planning scale, we use SLAMM and decision analysis to explore trade-offs and risk among several sea-level rise scenarios in the Matanzas River Watershed on the northeastern Florida Atlantic coast. In each of these examples, selecting a coastal adaptation strategy under sea-level rise is a complex task that entails the consideration of multiple streams of information, stakeholder preferences, value judgments, and uncertainty. P.84 Kim, S-J; Colorado State University; kim.sage@gmail.com Utilizing Need for Affect and Need for Cognition from a Dual-Processing Framework: Measuring Environmental Policy Preference by Experimental Design Studies Haddock, Maio, Arnold, and Huskinson (2008) reported that an affective message had stronger effects on attitude changes amongst those high in NFA and low in NFC. On the other hand, a cognitive message was found to elicit more positive changes in attitudes in those categorized as high in NFC and as low in NFA. Based on the review of the literature, the present study proposes several ways to more effectively utilize both NFA as well as NFC. Thus, this paper suggests H1: Individuals exposed to a cognitive message who are high in NFC and low in NFA will more likely to support an environmental policy issue (a new 54.5 MPG standard by 2025), compared to individuals exposed to other messages (i.e. affective, both cognitive & affective, and neither cognitive nor affective messages); H 2: Individuals exposed to an affective message who are low in NFC and high in NFA will more likely to support an environmental policy issue, compared to individuals exposed to other messages; H 3: Individuals exposed to a combined (both cognitive and affective) message who are high in NFC and high in NFA will more likely to support an environmental policy issue, compared to individuals exposed to other messages; H 4: Individuals exposed to a neutral (neither cognitive nor affective) message who are low in NFC and low in NFA will more likely to support an environmental policy issue, compared to individuals exposed to other messages. In addition, this study adds involvement and endorser as moderators of these relationships; furthermore, it looks at opinion leadership on the climate change issue and behavior/intention towards the adoption of a new 54.5 MPG standard vehicle as additional dependent variables. A series of experimental design studies (Study 1, 2, and 3) will be introduced and their strengths/limitations will be discussed. T2-G.2 Kirby-Straker, R.*; Turner, M.; University of Maryland, College Park; George Washington University; rkirbyst@umd.edu Climate Change and Related Risks: Personal or Impersonal? The degree to which people perceive a risk as being personal or impersonal will determine their response to the risk. This dichotomous classification of risks is related to perceived personal relevance, and an important challenge for environmental risk communicators is determining how to increase personal relevance, in other words, how to make impersonal risks more personal. Before risk communicators address this challenge however, they must first gain a better understanding of how their audience views the risks of interest. A survey (N = 170) conducted at the University of Maryland, College Park, investigated student perceptions of eight risks: climate change, drought, flood, global warming, heat wave, high pollen count, tornado, and West Nile Virus. Participants were asked to indicate on a scale of zero to 100, their perceptions of these risks based on characteristics such as personal relevance, severity, susceptibility, immediacy, and abstractness. Demographic data, including gender, political philosophy, and home state were also collected. The data reiterated the complexity of risk perceptions and the need to unpack subjective judgments of risk before attempting to develop risk communication strategies to change public perceptions. The data however revealed promising results for climate change and global warming, in that both were considered to be the least abstract of the eight risks and the most severe, and participants considered themselves to be most susceptible to both these risks than to the other six, despite their perceptions that these risks were the least immediate, and that they were more likely to affect people in other countries. Although these results bode well for social change regarding climate change, they suggest a disconnection between perceptions of climate change and the other risks. P.11 Kirk, M; Hakkinen, P*; Ignacio, J; Kroner, O; Maier, A; Patterson, J; University of Virginia; Kroner@TERA.org Toxidromes - A decision-making tool for early response to chemical mass exposure incidents A common language to describe and recognize clinical manifestations of toxic chemical exposures is essential for emergency responders and hospital first receivers to be prepared to provide rapid and appropriate medical care for victims of industrial chemical mass exposures and terrorist attacks. In these situations, when the identity of the chemical is not known, first responders need a tool to rapidly evaluate victims and identify the best course of treatment. Military and civilian emergency response communities use a “toxic syndrome” (toxidrome) approach to quickly assess victims and determine the best immediate treatment when information on chemical exposures is limited. Toxidromes can be defined by a unique group of clinical observations, such as vital signs, mental status, pupil size, mucous membrane irritation, and lung and skin examinations. Data on over 20 toxidrome systems were evaluated to identify salient features and develop a consistent lexicon for use by state, local, tribal, territorial, and federal first responders and first receivers. A workshop of over 40 practitioners and experts in emergency response, emergency medicine, and medical toxicology developed names and definitions for 12 unique toxidromes that describe and differentiate the clinical signs and symptoms from exposures to chemicals. These toxidromes focus on acute signs and symptoms caused by inhalation and dermal exposures. Each toxidrome is characterized by exposure routes and sources, organs/systems affected, initial signs and symptoms, underlying mode of action, and treatment/antidotes. Toxidrome names and definitions are designed to be readily understood and remembered by users. Communication in a crisis requires accurate and succinct terms that can quickly convey the health conditions of patients. These toxidromes lay the foundation for a consistent lexicon, that if adopted widely, will improve response to chemical mass exposure incidents. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M3-F.3 Klinke, A*; Renn, O; Memorial University of Newfoundland, University of Stuttgart; aklinke@grenfell.mun.ca New conceptual considerations on dynamic governance handling risks in public policy Public policy is confronted with a new task to cope with challenges and risks emerging in transition and transformation periods, e.g. in domains such as energy, natural resources and global warming. Since current governance structures are often lacking institutional and procedural capacities, new governance institutions may become essential. We propose that transitions from “old’ to “new” systems that are challenged by institutional change and transformation require a dynamic form of governance. We reflect these issues from different perspectives of new institutionalism which emphasize flexible and responsive processes of institutional change and the need for sustainable institutional reform. Rational choice theorizes the logic of instrumental rationality, historical institutionalism offers the logic of path dependency, and sociological institutionalism relates to the logic of appropriateness to both the policy goals and the public support to provide legitimacy to the process. These “older” new institutionalisms assume a more static view that is why we turn to discursive institutionalism with a more dynamic approach to change and discursive problem solving capacity as explanatory power – a “new” approach that has recently be added to the “older” approaches. We attempt to glean how the institutional and procedural incapability of current public policy courses and mechanisms can be overcome in the face of transition and transformation. We conceptualize a framework for a dynamic configuration consisting three major performative capacities, namely integrative, adaptive and deliberative capacities, that are characterized by active, flexible and extensible structures and functions intertwining at multiple levels. Finally, we draw conclusions of how dynamic governance contribute to change the existing course of public policy in the energy sector and how a new governance regime could be shaped that is essentially different in the design than the traditional organizations and institutions that govern and control the energy system. T3-A.3 Koks, EE*; Bockarjova, M; De Moel, H; Aerts, JCJH; VU University Amsterdam; elco.koks@vu.nl Development and sensitivity analysis of an indirect risk model for the port of Rotterdam As transportation hubs and vital economic lifelines, ports play a critical role within the local, regional and global economy. At the same time, port cities are inherently at risk from both riverand coastal flooding, aggravated by pressures such as sea-level rise. Due to their complex infrastructure and extended regional linkages, a comprehensive flood risk assessment is required to understand which impacts potential flooding may bring to the economy at large. In this paper, we propose a framework for a comprehensive integrative flood damage model for port regions and conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of its underlying assumptions. The framework consists of multiple steps. First, a direct damage assessment is conducted in the port region, specifically differentiating between various industrial sectors. Second, we show how direct losses in capital and labor can be translated into the loss in production per sector in a more consistent manner, by making use of a Cobb-Douglas production function. Finally, the recovery of this production shock is modeled using a hybrid input-output model. The model is applied to the port region of Rotterdam, using seven different inundation scenarios. Results show that indirect production losses can form a similar share in the total flood risk as direct losses, in terms of expected annual damage. As a contribution to the literature, we perform an extensive sensitivity analysis of the model. We explore parameter uncertainty using a global sensitivity analysis, and adjust critical assumptions in the modeling framework related to, amongst others, import and export restrictions and financial liability, using a scenario approach. The results exemplify the uncertainties intrinsic to indirect damage modeling; offer explanations for differences found between different modeling tools; and provide critical insights for the methodological and empirical domains of damage modeling. P.76 Kovacs, DC*; Thorne, SL; Butte, GE; Wroblewski, MJ; Decision Partners; United States Census Census Bureau; dkovacs@decisionpartners.com Applying Mental Modeling Technology to Developing the Communications Research and Analytics Roadmap for Census Bureau The U.S. Census Bureau (CB) serves as the leading source of quality data and information about the nation's people, places, and economy. More than just numbers, this information shapes important policy decisions that help improve the nation’s social and economic conditions. The Center for New Media and Promotions (CNMP), within the Communications Directorate of the Census Bureau, coordinates, develops, and implements integrated communications and promotional campaigns with consistent messaging and branding about the Census Bureau. This includes exploring innovative ways of communicating through the web, digital, and social media; promotional activities; and evolving communications channels and platforms in support of the Data Dissemination Initiative and other CB programs. To support their activities, the CNMP sponsored development of a Communications Research and Analytics Roadmap (CRAR) to provide the needed insight to guide the development of effective integrated communications services. The Roadmap was informed by Foundational Research comprising an assessment of existing research and Mental Models research, a key component of Mental Modeling Technology. The mental models research is the topic of this presentation. First, an Expert Model of “Influences on Integrated Communication for Data Dissemination” was developed based on a review of background materials and discussions with a select group of CB employees. Using the model as an analytical basis, an interview protocol was designed and in-depth mental models interviews were conducted with 26 key internal CB stakeholders. The results of the expert interviews provided critical insight to support the development of the CRAR, which will provide guidance needed to improve the effectiveness of CB communications and data collection at a time of significantly escalating CB data collection costs and ever tightening government budgets. M2-G.4 Kowal, SP*; Jardine, CG; Bubela, TM; University of Alberta; skowal@ualberta.ca Transition, Trauma, and Information: Immigrant Women’s Relationship with Immunization Risk Communication Effective vaccine risk communication strategies by health agencies increase compliance with immunization programs. Unfortunately, current strategies do not address the needs of specific target groups, such as recent immigrants in Canada, who have lower vaccination rates than non-immigrants. Our study examined how foreign-born women access and use information to make personal and childhood immunization decisions. We conducted interviews with recently immigrated women from South Asia, China, and Bhutan who were pregnant or new mothers living in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Using NVivo qualitative software we generated an inductive coding scheme through content analysis of the interview transcripts. Results showed that transitional traumas associated with immigration impact women’s desire to access or critically assess immunization information. These transitional traumas included political marginalization, as experienced by Bhutanese refugees, or the loss of a strong traditional family system, for South Asian women. Such hardships impacted the women’s information gathering practices. Additionally, the degree to which women exercised agency in their health decisions in their countries of origin influenced how they accessed information in Canada, with a high proportion of participants demonstrating passive information gathering. Finally, there were widespread misconceptions amongst the study participants about Canadian vaccination programs (e.g. whether vaccines are mandatory) and whether women should be vaccinated before or during pregnancy. Our research uncovered the shortfalls of current risk communication strategies for immigrant women in Edmonton. Risk communicators must respond to the passive information gathering practices of these individuals to prevent misunderstandings about immunization policy and its importance. The lack of access to culturally relevant immunization risk communication for immigrant women in Canada potentially limits their ability to effectively make decisions to protect themselves and their children from communicable diseases. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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