Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
T4-K.1 Stern, PC; National Research Council; pstern@nas.edu
Design principles for governing risks from emerging
technologies
Technological innovations are developed and promoted for the
benefits they are expected to bring. The benefits tend to be
readily apparent, with data that are ostensible and repeatable;
the costs, particularly those that are delayed or borne by
non-adopters, are usually less so, at least at first. Consequently,
initial judgments about the relative benefits and costs of
innovations must often be revised in light of experience, in
processes that can be contentious. This paper reports on a
project that began in the National Research Council’s
Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change (now
the Board on Environmental Change and Society), which sought
to distill general lessons on the governance of emerging
technologies. It relied on two sources: (1) induction from
experience with emerging technologies, mainly technologies
now in place (nuclear power, radioactive waste management,
and DNA manipulation) but also at some that were emerging at
the time the project began in 2008 (nanotechnology,
biotechnology, and information science and technology); and
(2) inference from the results of social scientific research on
potentially relevant social processes, such as risk perception
and management, management of common-pool resources, the
workings of international institutions and networks, and science
communication and utilization. The paper reports on this
project and then proposes a set of design principles for the
governance of emerging technological risks, and then briefly
discuss how those principles might be applied to consider the
risks associated with the extraction of natural gas and oil from
shale formations by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.
T2-E.1 Stewart, RN*; Bright, EA; Rose, AN; McGinn, CW;
Bhaduri, BL; Oak Ridge National Laboratory;
stewartrn@ornl.gov
Enriching Environmental Risk Based Decision Support
Models with Large Scale, High Resolution Population
Data
For nearly two decades, the Spatial Analysis and Decision
Assistance freeware package (SADA) has enabled
environmental risk assessors to situate risk analytics within a
spatial context. By integrating risk models articulated by EPA
Superfund with advanced geospatial methods, methods have
been developed for directly inferring risk informed sample
designs, remedial designs, cost analysis, and uncertainty
analysis within a free and open modeling environment.
Currently, these models focus on a hypothetical receptor
engaging in contamination under current or future landuse
scenarios and do not consider the existing population
distribution or sociocultural processes near these impacted
areas. In the next expansion of SADA, we integrate Oak Ridge
National Laboratory’s LandScan population dataset with the
current collection of existing analytics and significantly extend
the ability to assess exposure and risks to impacted populations
and demographic sub-populations. Explicitly modeling and
visualizing the spatial context within which contamination,
population dynamics, and exposure occur can substantially
inform policy formulation and evaluation. This paper discusses
integration of LandScan with SADA, adjustment and expansion
of existing analytics, and presents a case study.
P.52 Stewart, D*; Glass-Mattie, D; Dorman, D; McConnell, E;
Adeshina, F; University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National
Laboratory; dstewart@utk.edu
Provisional Advisory Level (PAL) Development for
Superwarfarins (Brodifacoum and Bromidalone)
PAL values developed for hazardous materials by the US EPA
represent general public emergency exposure limits for oral
and inhalation exposures corresponding to three different
severity levels (1, 2, and 3) for 24-hr, 30-d, 90-d, and 2-yr
durations. PAL 1 represents the threshold for mild effects; PAL
2 represents the threshold for serious, irreversible or
escape-impairing effects; PAL 3 represents the threshold for
lethal effects. PALs have not been promulgated nor have they
been formally issued as regulatory guidance. They are intended
to be used at the discretion of risk managers in emergency
situations when site-specific risk assessments are not available.
The mention of trade names does not imply EPA endorsement.
PAL values were developed based on the SOP and QAPP
requirements. Brodifacoum (CAS No. 56073-10-0) and
Bromadiolone (CAS No. 28772-56-7) are both members of the
newer generations of anticoagulant rodenticides collectively
named superwarfarins. Anticoagulant rodenticides have been
used historically as effective means to control populations of
mice, rats and other rodents in urban and agricultural settings.
All anticoagulants act by preventing the coagulation cascade,
which can cause free bleeding that can be fatal. Superwarfarins
work by inhibiting vitamin K1 epoxide reductase, which leads to
a depletion of vitamin K1 and impairment of blood clotting
ability. In humans and animals, Vitamin K1 can be administered
after ingestion to act as an antidote to prevent free bleeding.
Brodifacoum and bromadiolone are absorbed quickly,
distributed primarily to the liver and excreted in the feces,
mostly unchanged. Oral PAL values were developed by using
human case reports and animal data. Oral PAL 1, 2, and 3
values are 0.017, 0.16, and 1.8 mg/L for 24-hours and NR (not
recommended), 0.0025, and 0.0075 mg/L for 30-days. Values
are not recommended for 90-day and 2-year oral exposure and
all inhalation durations due to insufficient data.
M2-F.5 Stillman, M; Consultant; mstillman@kleinfelder.com
Risk-based Need Assessments to Enhance Enterprise
Program Management Offices
In many industries team leaders and organizations are under
constant pressure to deliver a portfolio of projects on time and
within budget. Project Management Offices (PMO) are set up to
address this challenge through the development of standard
Project Management processes, and act as a central repository
for Project Management knowledge, best practices and lessons
learned. The best return on the PMO investment is realized by
performing Need Assessments which result in the development
of Project Management plans that decrease work flow
complexity and increase project savings. Need Assessments are
customarily conducted with key functional groups within an
organization for the purpose of improving processes by
identifying gaps between existing and desired conditions. The
fundamental value is derived by gaining deeper insights into
project risks from multiple perspectives that lead to improved
clarity on the priority and sequence for task implementation.
Key stages of the Need Assessment process to be described are:
(1) goal setting with PMO Director, (2) data gathering to
document existing conditions, (3) open-ended interviews that
identify gaps and encourage “out of the box” brainstorming of
solutions, (4) risk ranking of issues, (5) initial de-brief with
organizational leaders, and (6) findings report to document risk
findings and recommendations. Consistency of this process with
the risk management framework in ISO 31000 will be
highlighted. The collaborative risk assessment stage will be
described in detail as it provides the core technical basis for
sequencing of response strategies.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD