SRA 2013 Annual Meeting <strong>Abstracts</strong> P.100 Victory, K*; Cabrera, N; Larson, D; Reynolds, K; Latura, J; Beamer, P; University of Arizona and Mariposa Community Health Center; kerton1@email.arizona.edu <strong>Risk</strong> perception of drinking water quality in a US-Mexico Border community The United States and Mexico are the largest consumers of bottled water worldwide, but it is unclear what causes this increased consumption. We previously demonstrated, in a cross-sectional study, that in the border town of Nogales, Arizona approximately 85% of low-income residents primarily drink bottled water and 50% cook with it. In the current study, we interviewed ninety low-income Latinos in Nogales, AZ to assess differences in perceived risks of drinking municipal tap water and bottled water and to understand why these families use bottled water as their primary drinking water source. Respondents viewed drinking tap water to be a significantly more risky activity than consuming bottled and other purchased sources of water (p
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting <strong>Abstracts</strong> T1-D.1 Walderhaug, MO*; Menis, M; Anderson, SA; U.S. FDA CBER; mark.walderhaug@fda.hhs.gov Use of an Administrative Database to Characterize Babesiosis Occurrence in the United States, 2006-2008 Babesiosis is a zoonotic disease caused by several species of protozoan parasite of the genus Babesia. This illness is typically spread to humans by tick bite. The symptoms of babesiosis range in severity from asymptomatic to high fever with hemolytic anemia. Symptoms are more likely to be severe <strong>for</strong> cases where the infected person is very young, very old, or immunocompromised. Blood units containing babesiosis that were collected from asymptomatic blood donors represent a threat to blood recipients, and there is no approved screening test at present. To assess the risk of transfusion transmitted babesiosis, we undertook an analysis to estimate the number of potential carriers of babesiosis that could be donating. Babesiosis became a nationally notifiable disease in 2011, however be<strong>for</strong>e 2011, the illness was sporadically reported to the CDC. We per<strong>for</strong>med a nationwide study of the diagnosis of babesiosis in the inpatient, outpatient, skilled nursing facility, and carrier standard analytical Medicare enrollment <strong>file</strong>s <strong>for</strong> calendar years 2006 to 2008. Our findings show that estimates of state-specific rates from our study are up to ten times higher than nationally reported rates at the time. Babesiosis rates were highest in the Northeastern states of the U.S. The rates of babesiosis in males over 65 years in age were significantly higher than rates in females which may reflect higher exposures to ticks in Babesia-endemic areas by males partaking in outdoor activities. Accurate estimates of the rates of asymptomatic cases of babesiosis in blood donors is an important factor in estimating the benefits and risks of screening blood donors <strong>for</strong> carriers of babesiosis. The use of these results in a general population risk assessment is limited in that the database used provides data on the elderly but not on the general population. Large administrative databases may have some limitations, but they may also be useful sources of health in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong> risk assessments. T1-E.3 Wang, B*; Gray, GM; George Washington University; bingwang23@gwu.edu Predicting long-term Benchmark Dose from short-term studies in National Toxicology Program toxicity tests Animal toxicity studies play a major role in risk assessment by providing regulators with dose-response data to estimate health risks in humans. However, there is a push to find more effective, efficient and less animal-intensive methods to assess the risk and yield reliable health risk values (like the Reference Dose (RfD)). This study compared short-term (3 months) and long-term (2 years) toxicity data of 41 chemicals in National Toxicology Program (NTP) to evaluate whether well-conducted short-term studies may yield data as reliable as long-term studies in identifying lowest doses associated with non-cancer adverse effects. Lower confidence limits of Benchmark Doses (BMDLs) were computed <strong>for</strong> non-neoplastic lesions, final mean body weight and mean organ weight. Linear regression was per<strong>for</strong>med to predict long-term BMDLs and RfDs from short-term data. Concordance of affected organs relevant to the lowest short-term and long-term BMDLs was assessed. In addition, similar analysis was per<strong>for</strong>med by species-sex groups. Interestingly, 34 of 41 chemicals (83%) had a less than 10-fold difference between the BMDLs of short-term and long-term studies. The linear regression showed statistically significant positive association between short-term and long-term BMDLs and RfDs. However, only nine of 41 chemicals (22%) had matching affected organs between short-term and long-term studies. By-group analysis showed a similar strong quantitative but weak qualitative association between short-term and long-term studies. The findings suggest the risk assessed in short-term animal studies provided a reasonably quantitative estimate of that based on long-term studies. However, the limited concordance of adverse effects within rodent species should be considered in interspecies extrapolation from animals to human in risk assessment process. P.123 Wang, Y; Georgia Institute of Technology; yan.wang@me.gatech.edu Nanoscale risk assessment and uncertainty quantification in atomistic simulations Uncertainties in atomistic simulations imply the associated risks in simulation-based materials and drug development. Lack of data, conflicting in<strong>for</strong>mation, numerical and measurement errors are the major sources of epistemic uncertainty in simulation. In particular, the sources of model <strong>for</strong>m uncertainty <strong>for</strong> molecular dynamics (MD) include imprecise interatomic potential functions and parameters, inaccurate boundary conditions, cut-off distance <strong>for</strong> simplification, approximations used <strong>for</strong> simulation acceleration, calibration bias caused by measurement errors, and other systematic errors during mathematical and numerical treatment. The sources <strong>for</strong> kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulation include unknown stable and transition states, and imprecise transition rates. In this work, we illustrate the sensitivity and effect of model <strong>for</strong>m uncertainty in MD and kMC simulations on physical and chemical property predictions. A generalized interval probability <strong>for</strong>malism is applied to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. New reliable MD and kMC simulation mechanisms are proposed, where the robustness of simulation predictions can be improved without the traditional second-order Monte Carlo style sensitivity analysis. Examples of engineering materials and biochemical processes are used to demonstrate the new nanoscale risk assessment approach. P.69 Wang, M*; Lambertini, E; Micallef, SA; Pradhan, AK; University of Maryland, College Park, MD; meowang@umd.edu <strong>Risk</strong> Assessments <strong>for</strong> Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. in Melons In the past decade, with the increasing public preference <strong>for</strong> fresh produce, the risk of illnesses associated with consuming raw and minimally processed fruits and vegetables has drawn increased scrutiny from various stakeholders including consumers, industry, government, and academia. Annual consumption of non-citrus fresh fruits, including melons, increased 45.5% from 1976 to 2009. Melons are highly popular due to their high nutrition value and the attractive natural flavor. However, melons are vulnerable to pathogen contamination because they are grown on ground, minimally processed, and eaten raw. There<strong>for</strong>e, melons are considered as the second highest fresh produce commodity of concern <strong>for</strong> microbial risk. Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes, two of the most deadly foodborne pathogens, have been associated with melons contamination, recalls, and most importantly two recent large-scale outbreaks in 2011 and 2012. While government guidelines on Good Agricultural Practices and post-harvest Best Practices have been published <strong>for</strong> cantaloupes, no quantitative estimate of risk and mitigation effectiveness are available <strong>for</strong> any melon variety. In support of such quantitative risk assessment ef<strong>for</strong>ts, the goal of this study was to systematically review existing data on the risk of contamination from Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes and their ecology in the melon production chain. Specific objectives were to review: (i) production and consumption of common melon varieties (cantaloupe, honeydew, and watermelon), (ii) potential contamination sources in the farm-to-<strong>for</strong>k supply chain, (iii) prevalence and survival of pathogens associated with melons, and (iv) potential intervention strategies <strong>for</strong> risk reduction in the melon industry. This systematic review synthesizes critical in<strong>for</strong>mation needed <strong>for</strong> conducting farm-to-<strong>for</strong>k quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models <strong>for</strong> L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. on melons. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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