Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W2-K.3 Salazar, DE*; Chatterjee, S; University of Southern California; danielsalazaraponte@gmail.com Managing risk through resilience and recovery in seaport operations Port operations are vital for the welfare of the country, supporting food security and economic activity. Arguably, natural hazards constitute the main threat to port operations, although intentional attacks can inflict significant damage too. Depending on the importance of each port and its exposure to risk, different strategies for risk management are possible. However, in some cases and due to the criticality of certain locations, resilience should be enhanced to secure at least some minimal level of operation capacity in the aftermath of a disaster. Although some frameworks for allocation of resources in critical infrastructure protection have been published, they pay more attention to prevention than resilience and recovery. In this research we focus on what to do in the aftermath of a disaster. We present a methodology to assess resilience in port operations using statistical and simulation modeling methods for risk and operability assessment and decision analysis tools for resource allocation. M2-D.1 Sasso, AF*; Schlosser, PM; US Environmental Protection Agency; sasso.alan@epa.gov A harmonized PBPK model of hexavalent chromium in rats and mice Hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) is an environmental and occupational contaminant, and is present in both soil and drinking water in the United States. In 2-year drinking water bioassays, the National Toxicology Program found clear evidence of carcinogenic activity in male and female rats and mice. Because reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) is an important detoxifying step that can occur in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract prior to systemic absorption, numerous physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have been developed over the past two decades to estimate inter-species differences in toxicity. While the currently available models adequately simulate the available dietary and drinking water datasets available for Cr(VI) and Cr(III), intravenous and gavage data were typically not evaluated. Due to uncertainties related to the kinetics and absorption of Cr(VI) in the GI tract, data for other routes of exposure provide valuable toxicokinetic information. Furthermore, all previous kinetic models for GI reduction assume a single pathway is responsible for the reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III), which does not capture the underlying complexities of GI reduction kinetics. The current work attempts to 1) harmonize assumptions between alternate prior PBPK models, 2) adequately simulate data for different routes of exposure and study designs, and 3) incorporate a revised model for GI reduction kinetics (which assumes multiple parallel reduction reactions). The potential impacts on future human health risk assessments will be discussed. The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. EPA. P.16 Sax, S*; Prueitt, R; Goodman, J; Gradient; ssax@gradientcorp.com Weight-of-Evidence Evaluation of Short-term Ozone Exposure and Cardiovascular Effects There is a considerable body of research on the cardiovascular (CV) effects associated with ozone exposure, including epidemiology, toxicology, and controlled human exposure studies. US EPA is considering these data to determine whether to update the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We conducted a weight-of-evidence (WoE) analysis to determine if there was an association between CV effects and short-term ozone exposures at levels below the current primary ozone NAAQS of 75 parts per billion. Our analysis followed an updated WoE framework based on EPA's NAAQS framework. We found that the epidemiology evidence of CV morbidity and mortality is inconsistent and lacks coherence across specific CV endpoints. Specifically, the lack of epidemiology evidence of morbidity effects is not coherent with reported mortality estimates. Toxicology studies, although somewhat more consistent, are conducted at high exposure levels well above the current NAAQS, and there is limited information on dose-response relationships. Furthermore, there is a lack of coherence between reported results from epidemiology studies (suggesting no effects) and results from animal studies (suggesting small effects at high exposure levels). Similarly, controlled human exposure studies report inconsistent effects after exposure to high ozone levels above the current NAAQS. Overall, our WoE analysis indicates that CV effects are not associated with short-term ozone exposures below the current NAAQS. W4-D.5 Sayes, CM; RTI International; csayes@rti.org Life cycle considerations for nano-enabled products containing multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs): Research to inform future risk analyses and risk management Engineered nanomaterials can bring great advantages to the development of sustainable products in multiple industries (e.g., construction, textile goods, sporting equipment). For example, multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTS) can increase the resistance of construction materials to aging (UV, mechanical stress, etc.), particularly when used as a coating. Risk analyses can inform the dynamic development of MWCNTs used in this industry by providing information to risk managers on potential MWCNT risks to humans and the environment. Risk assessors can use a product life cycle perspective to better inform risk managers about critical considerations in the development of safe nanomaterials, such as MWCNTs. To carry out these analyses, risk assessors need data from researchers on product development and manufacturing, exposure (consumer and occupational) and human and environmental impacts of MWCNT-enabling technologies. The objective of this talk is to present the most recent environmental health and safety findings on MWCNTs incorporated into current and emerging products. Specifically, this talk outlines our data on: 1) production of unique nanocomposites for products, 2) characterization methods for nano-enabled products, and 3) exposures and hazards to nanocomposites during the production phase. Information presented here will support an interactive discussion on what additional data in these areas would most facilitate risk analyses that use a product life cycle perspective to inform subsequent risk management decisions about MWCNTs. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T3-H.2 Scanlon, KA*; Yaroschak, PJ; Consultant; kelly.scanlon@outlook.com Identifying and Mitigating Worker Health Risks from Lead Exposure in the Department of Defense This presentation will highlight the progression of proactive risk management actions taken by the Department of Defense (DoD) to mitigate impacts to worker health associated with the evolving science and regulations for lead (Pb). Lead is classified as a DoD emerging contaminant (EC) because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lowered the childhood blood lead level reference value from 10 micrograms per deciliter (ug/dL) to 5 ug/dL. This change in BLL may impact lead soil screening concentrations, air quality standards, occupational exposure limits, or medical management guidelines. An EC impact assessment for lead concluded that the changing science and regulatory landscapes presented a high risk of impact to the DoD during use of lead-containing munitions on test and training ranges, maintenance of these assets, and demilitarization and disposal. As a result of these impact assessment findings, risk management options were proposed by the DoD that aimed to assess occupational lead exposures to determine the effectiveness of current occupational health programs for protecting workers, specifically firing range personnel. In turn, the DoD asked the National Research Council to evaluate potential health risks related to recurrent lead exposure of firing range personnel and to determine whether exposure standards for lead adequately protect these personnel. The subsequent report, published at the end of 2012, found that there was overwhelming evidence that the general industry standards for lead exposure, set by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration more than 30 years ago, are inadequate to protect employees at DoD firing ranges. DoD has since begun a comprehensive review of its medical management guidelines and practices for protecting workers from lead exposure. The current status of this review will be provided. T1-F.3 Scheer, D; University Stuttgart; dirk.scheer@sowi.uni-stuttgart.de Knowledge transfer of simulation-based knowledge from science to policy makers Computer simulations have established as a fundamental accomplishment in the field of information and communication technologies. Benefiting from its increasing capacities for digital data processing, simulations play an important role in a great variety of applications. However, simulations are of major significance in science-based fundamental and application-oriented research in the field of emerging technologies where detailed technology configurations and impacts are not yet specified. Simulations contribute particularly with analyzing, assessing and predicting technology-based emerging risks. Knowledge gained from computer simulations is not limited to the scientific community itself but impacts other domains of society such as politics, business and industry, and the public at large. Production of simulation-based knowledge and its communication towards political decision-makers have become a crucial factor within policy-making. Impacting societal domains, simulations meet two principal functions: they serve as a knowledge instrument as well as a communication instrument at the science-policy interface. Nonetheless, so far science did not consider in depth how processes and circumstances of simulations-based knowledge transfer works. How are policy-relevant scientific simulation results processed and used in policy-making? The conceptual analysis to identify knowledge and communication functions is based on theories of both knowledge transfer at the science-policy interface and knowledge transfer as a communication process. In addition, a more detailed focus is on policy-makers as information receivers with specific communication theories tackling the issue of human information processing. The empirical results reveal a great variety of coexisting perception and reception patterns as well as assessment and use patterns how decision-makers process simulations results in the field of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology development and implementation. T2-F.3 Schetula, VS; Dialogik non profit institute for communication and cooperation research; schetula@dialogik-expert.de Decision-making and participation with a special focus on energy policy and climate change: how to integrate the knowledge of citizens and associations. In the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany decided to phase out nuclear energy. The government has announced that it will shut down the last reactors by 2022. In the course of implementing this decision, the government faces mores skeptical views and even opposition because if rising electricity prices. Now the government in Germany is forced to deal not only with technical issues but also with a declining acceptance in society as a whole. In response to this growing dissatisfaction, the state government of Baden-Württemberg, led by a green prime minister, has started an ambitious public participation program. Part of the participation program is the issues of risk tolerance and risk management. How concerned are people about energy security, energy prices and new technologies for storing or converting energy in the framework of the new energy transition? Our group was asked to design and conduct a broad public participation process with the aim to assist policy makers in identifying these risks and evaluate measures to deal with them. Furthermore the participatory processes were designed to facilitate compromise between different interest groups. This, in turn, could have a positive effect on public acceptance of the proposed energy transition. This paper explains the participation process in which stakeholders, representatives of the general public and activists were involved to evaluate the policies and strategies for the energy transition. The paper will introduce the concept of the process, explain the major goals and procedures and report about the interactions between the three types of constituents that were included in the process. In addition, the following questions will be addressed: How did the authorities respond to the outcomes of the process? What kind of challenges did we face and how did we deal with difficult situations? What has been the outcome of the project? What lessons have been learned? M3-A.5 Schimmel, JD; Lovely, RK*; Springfield Water and Sewer, Kleinfelder; rlovely@kleinfelder.com EPA Promotes Risk Based Asset Management as Deployed in Springfield Massachusetts The Springfield Water and Sewer Commission (SWSC) is responsible for managing the wastewater system in Springfield, MA. Of special concern are the wastewater interceptors that allow Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) in to the rivers around the City during wet weather events. After finding water quality issues the EPA issued several Administrative Orders requiring the Commission to perform over $300M in CSO related work. Concurrently the SWSC has seen an increase in failures including pipe collapses within the wastewater collection system that threaten the City’s environment and communities. The SWSC did not have the resources to simultaneously address the Administrative Orders and imminent collection system failures. EPA educators promote a Risk based Asset Management strategy originally developed in Australia and New Zealand. This approach involves stakeholder input to rank the consequences of failure against an established set of service levels for which a wastewater utility is committed to provide. The method also requires failure mode assessments from which failure probabilities can be derived. With this information available a utility can calculate risks from consequences of failure and failure probability. The risk values are used to prioritize where to direct organizational resources. The information can also be used as a basis for other cost saving tools including deterioration modeling, life cycle costing, and business case evaluation. Through a series of workshops the SWSC - Kleinfelder team was able to demonstrate to the EPA how a Risk based Asset Management approach is the best method for the SWSC to meet all of its obligations. The presentation will walk the audience through the key elements of Risk based Asset Management and how it has been effectively deployed in Springfield to the benefit of all stakeholders including the EPA, City communities, and the Commissioners. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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